We are into Day Four of this week’s tournaments, and some of the top players in tennis will be in action today. The fourth slate of this tennis DFS week has 15 matches with WTA and ATP players in action. We have thoughts on Daniil Medvedev and Karen Khachanov, so let’s dive in.
Not a member of Awesemo+? Sign up HERE for all our sports rankings and projections.
Daniil Medvedev (DraftKings $10,600; FanDuel N/A)
Daniil Medvedev is coming off of the best major result of his career, as he fell short to Rafael Nadal in a five-set marathon grand final. He has been the best player on the ATP tour since the end of Wimbledon, with a 20-3 record while reaching four straight finals. The guy is an absolute machine, he has played so much tennis over the last two months and he refuses to take a break. Medvedev is the clear favorite to win this tournament, and I do not see anyone giving him a true test.
Medvedev’s first match is against Evgeny Donskoy, the ATP world number 118. Donskoy has been solid on the Challenger tour in 2019 with a 21-15 record, but he is just 3-4 on the ATP tour. Before his first round match this week, Donskoy lost eight straight sets in tour level matches. He had an impressive first-round win against Matteo Viola 6-2 6-1, but Medvedev is a different task. I do not see Donskoy staying in this very long, and Medvedev should cruise in straight sets.
Karen Khachanov (DraftKings $9,200; FanDuel N/A)
Karen Khachanov had a disappointing outing at the US Open to say the least. He lost to the ATP world number 216 Vasek Pospisil in the first round, but he is capable of giving up matches like that once in awhile. Khachanov is 11-11 on the hard courts in 2019 while taking down two top-10 players, he just struggles with consistency. We have seen what he can do when he is on, and I think a good first round matchup this week can get Khachanov back to top form, for now. He reached the quarterfinals at both Indian Wells and the Canada Masters, and I think he can reach another one this week in his home country.
Khachanov has a meeting with Joao Sousa, the ATP world number 64 from Portugal. Sousa has not been great on the hard courts to say the least, with an 8-11 record in 2019. He was riding a five-match loss streak before this tournament, and even with a good first-round win, I am not sold on his level of play. Khachanov is 1-0 against Sousa on hard courts, and given his talent on a good day, he can smash Sousa.
Karolina Muchova (DraftKings $8,800; FanDuel N/A)
Karolina Muchova picked up right where she left off after her quarterfinal run at Wimbledon with a 5-2 record on the hard courts. Her lone two losses came against Serena Williams and an in-form Magda Linette, so there is not too much to be ashamed of there. Muchova is 19-7 on the hard courts over the last 12 months, but just 2-5 against top-50 players. Her game has increased drastically over the last few months, so I think that record will slowly get into the positive.
Muchova will face off against Timea Babos, the WTA world number 92. Babos has been solid on the hard courts this year with a 15-13 record. However, her record against top-100 players is not attractive, sitting at 5-10. She is serving extremely well this week, firing down aces at a 14% rate while winning 75% of all service points. Babos is yet to drop a service game, but that will change against a quality opponent like Muchova. Karolina is the more dominant player in this matchup in all aspects of the game, so I expect a straight-set win.
Value plays: Camila Giorgi (DraftKings $7,600; FanDuel N/A)
Camila Giorgi is the slight favorite in this match, and I think the price is too good to pass up. Giorgi is 9-5 on the hard courts since the end of Wimbledon including six wins against top-100 opponents. She reached the final in both Washington and New York in August, and I think that momentum will continue on into this tournament. The downside to Giorgi is her high double fault rate, but she can make up for it in a blowout win.
Giorgi is going up against Sloane Stephens, the WTA world number 14 from the U.S. Stephens has been nothing short of bad on the hard courts over the last two months with a 1-4 record. Her last two matches were both straight-set losses against players ranked outside the top 125, and it was on the verge of embarrassing. Sloane lost 10 service games in both matches combined while winning just 43% of service points. Her form is terrible at the moment, and I think Giorgi has a chance to blow her out.
Best of luck!