We are into Day Six of this week’s tournaments, and some of the top players in tennis will be in action today. The Friday morning slate of this tennis DFS week has 8 matches with ATP players in action. We have thoughts on Daniil Medvedev and Borna Coric, so let’s dive in.
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Daniil Medvedev (DraftKings $10,100; FanDuel N/A)
Daniil Medvedev is coming off of the best major result of his career, as he fell short to Rafael Nadal in a five set marathon grand final. He has been the best player on the ATP tour since the end of Wimbledon, with a 21-3 record while reaching four straight finals. The guy is an absolute machine, he has played so much tennis over the last two months and he refuses to take a break. Medvedev is the clear favorite to win this tournament, and I don’t see anyone giving him a true test.
Medvedev’s second match is against Andrey Rublev, the ATP world number 38 from Russia. Rublev has played out of his mind over the last month, with a 13-3 record on the hard courts. He reached back to back quarterfinals in Cincinnati and Winston Salem, as well as taking down two top 10 players. Rublev played a solid match yesterday against Ricardas Berankis, losing zero service games while winning 88% of first serve points. However, no one can stop Medvedev. Medvedev took down Rublev three weeks ago 6-2 6-3, and I expect the same result today.
Pablo Carreno Busta (DraftKings $9,000; FanDuel N/A)
Pablo Carreno Busta has played some solid hard court tennis since the end of Wimbledon, with a 9-3 record on the surface. Five of those wins were against top 50 players, including a 6-3 6-2 beatdown over David Goffin yesterday. Carreno Busta has lost just one service game in his two matches this week while winning 65% of all service points. The Spaniard has a somewhat favorable draw, and I think he is a legit contender to take the title.
Pablo will go up against Aljaz Bedene, the ATP world number 76 from Slovenia. Bedene has played almost flawless tennis so far this week, firing down aces at an 18% rate while winning 93% of first serve points. He is yet to face a break point as well, but he hasn’t really been tested against a top player. Bedene is 4-5 in ATP level hard court matches in 2019 with two wins against top 50 players. He looked solid at the US Open, but Carreno Busta is in better form at the moment.
Borna Coric (DraftKings $8,800; FanDuel N/A)
Borna Coric has been a mess as of late to say the least, facing all kinds of injury problems. Coric is 12-7 on the hard surfaces in 2019, while reaching three quarterfinals. It’s been about a year since we’ve seen Coric at his top level, and I think his draw this week could get him back to that top shape. He beat Marton Fucsovics in three sets to start off the week, losing just one service game in the match. We’ve seen what he can do when he’s at his best, and I hope to see signs of that this week.
Coric has a quarterfinal meeting with Casper Ruud, the ATP world number 60 from Norway. Ruud broke through the rankings a few months ago due to a successful clay court swing, but his game hasn’t developed on the hard courts quite yet. He is 11-10 in 2019 with an 0-3 record against top 50 players. His first round match was against an erratic player in Alexander Bublik and his second round match was against a clay court player, so Ruud is yet to be tested. Casper is a solid player, but he isn’t ready to compete with the best on hard courts.
Value plays: Nikoloz Basilashvili (DraftKings $6,000; FanDuel N/A)
It’s almost impossible to pick Nikoloz Basilashvili in tennis DFS, but there isn’t much value on today’s early slate. It’s hard to know which Basilashvili is going to show up on any day, but he did have a stellar first round match. He fired down aces at a 25% rate and won 85% of first serve points against Yannick Maden. Nikoloz has the game to overpower any player on the tour, it just comes down to consistency and avoiding double faults. He’s a tough player to roster, but I can see an upset taking pace.
Basilashvili is up against Jo Wilfried Tsonga, the ATP world number 61 from France. Speaking of consistency, Tsonga is another player that struggles to keep his level in place. The Frenchman is 15-7 on hard courts in 2019 including a title win in Montpellier. He is just 2-3 in his last five matches, and I’m not certain that he’s a lock to win this match. Tsonga has looked solid this week losing just one set, but Basilashvili is a top 20 player for a reason. I think this match will have lots of errors, but Basilashvili can out hit Tsonga all day.
Best of luck!