The first major of the year has arrived! Players have been in action over the last few weeks to prepare for this tournament and we’ll get to see a glimpse of everyone at their best. We’re going to break down each first round match of the Roger Federer quarter of the bracket, for your best bets and Tennis DFS lineups. Will anyone be able to take him down?
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The Federer Bracket Tennis DFS and Betting Preview for the 2020 Australian Open
Matteo Berrettini (No. 8) vs. Andrew Harris
Harris has been solid on the challenger tour with a 33-22 record in 2019, but he is yet to play an ATP tour level match. Berrettini is a top-10 player for a reason and was recently named the most improved player of the year. I think he cruises and ends this match in straight sets, even though Harris will have the crowd behind him.
Tennys Sandgren vs. Marco Trungelliti
You never know what to expect from Sandgren, but he has shown moments of excellence. He reached the finals in Auckland this time last year, as well as posting wins of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray later in the season. He’s winning 81% of service games, but the 11% break rate is not good whatsoever. Trungelliti was 0-2 in ATP tour level hard courts matches in 2019, and I don’t think he’s getting a win today.
Roberto Carballés Baena vs. Ričardas Berankis
This isn’t the most exciting matchup and I expect it to be a long match. Carballés Baena was 5-8 on the hard courts last year, Berankis was 6-10. They both shine in the Challenger level, but that production hasn’t been there at this level. I’m giving Berankis the edge here since he is slightly better on this surface and he’s a -170 favorite.
Sam Querrey vs. Borna Ćorić (No. 25)
This will be one of the best first round matches in this tournament. Ćorić is coming off a somewhat letdown 2019 season, and Querrey wasn’t much better. Querrey is one of the top servers in the game, serving aces at a 21% rate on hard courts. Ćorić is by far the better all-around player, but he is struggling to find his top form. I think this match goes the distance, and I’ll roll with Ćorić.
Guido Pella (No. 22) vs. John Patrick Smith
There’s not much to dive into with this match. Smith didn’t play a single ATP tour level match in 2019, and he got blown out by a struggling Nicolás Jarry last week. Pella played some excellent tennis at the ATP Cup last week, and he should have no issue winning this match in straight sets.
Mohamed Safwat vs. Grégoire Barrère
I think Barrère takes care of this match fairly quickly. Safwat was just 14-17 on the hard courts on the challenger level in 2019, and his serving has been poor this week. He is winning 64% of first serve points while facing 25 break points. Barrère has taken down multiple top 100 players over the last few weeks and Vegas has him as a -290 favorite.
Jordan Thompson vs. Alexander Bublik
This is one of the most even matchups on the board, but I think it’s clear on who has the slight edge. These two faced off against each other in September with Bublik winning in straight sets. Bublik is a huge server, firing down aces at a 17% rate in 2019. Thompson, on the other hand, doesn’t match up well with Bublik since they have two completely different styles of play. Thompson will have the home crowd, but Bublik is the better player at the moment.
Reilly Opelka vs. Fabio Fognini (No. 12)
I was debating this match for a long time, and it really comes down to who will take advantage of break point chances. Opelka has a massive serve, hitting aces at a 26% rate on hard courts. However, he is currently riding a four-match losing streak, including a terrible loss against the clay court specialist Pablo Cuevas last week. Fognini is by far the more inconsistent player here, but he has the experience facing big servers. He took down Opelka at the Davis Cup in November and John Isner at the ATP Cup. I’m rolling with Fognini.
Denis Shapovalov (No. 13) vs. Márton Fucsovics
Shapovalov is playing out of his mind at the moment, and I think he’ll blow through the first few rounds. He’s taken down four top 10 players in his last 15 matches, while firing down aces at a 15% rate. He is hammering the ball on both wings, and it is hard to stop. Fucsovics has a different play style, playing more defensive and that won’t be good enough today. He was 3-14 against top-20 players in 2019 and Shapovalov is a -550 favorite in this match.
Jannik Sinner vs. Max Purcell
Sinner is the new young star of the ATP tour, as he took down the Next Gen Finals at the end of 2019. He is 5-1 so far in 2020 on the Challenger Tour and he lost his lone ATP match in a three-set battle against Benoît Paire. Purcel didn’t play a single ATP tour level hard court match in 2019 and I expect him to get blown out today. He’s holding serve at a 78% rate compared to Sinner’s 32% break rate.
Leonardo Mayer vs. Tommy Paul
Paul is coming off of an excellent showing in Adelaide, as he reached the semifinals while taking down three top-50 players in straight sets. He fired down aces at a 14% rate, losing only one service game in the first five rounds. Mayer, the clay court specialist, is 1-2 this year with his lone win coming against the ATP No. 901 Rhett Purcell. I think Paul wins this match easily.
Juan Ignacio Londero vs. Grigor Dimitrov (No. 18)
As discussed in my daily picks article for today, I have Dimitrov winning this match in straight sets.
Hubert Hurkacz (No. 31) vs. Dennis Novak
This is a battle of two up and coming stars in the game, but Hurkacz has the clear advantage. Hurkacz is 6-1 so far in 2020, including a win over Dominic Thiem at the ATP Cup. He’s winning first serve points at a 79% rate while serving aces at a 14% rate. Novak is 4-2 in 2020 with three wins coming in the qualifiers. He doesn’t have quite as big of a serve as Hurkacz, but he is winning a high 75% of first serve points. I have to give the edge to Hurkacz here.
John Millman vs. Ugo Humbert
This match is a complete toss up for me. Humbert is coming off of his maiden ATP title this last week, and he took down three top-25 players along the way. Millman is no pushover; he is 4-1 in 2020 with his lone loss coming in three sets against Paire. Humbert played some exceptional tennis last week, but I have to give the edge to Millman due to the home crowd and the experience in these major tournaments.
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Quentin Halys vs. Filip Krajinović
This match should be no contest for Krajinović. He was 25-14 in hard court matches on the ATP tour in 2019, including a title run in Stockholm. Halys is 1-5 in his career against top-50 players on hard court, and I don’t understand how the line is only -350. Krajinovic can win this match in three sets with ease.
Steve Johnson vs. Roger Federer (No. 3)
Not much to discuss here. Federer should take care of business in straight sets.
Projected fourth round matchups
Borna Ćorić vs. Fabio Fognini
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Roger Federer
Projected quarterfinals matchup
Borna Ćorić vs. Roger Federer
Group Winner and Australian Open Semi-Finalist