It’s day 3 of this week’s tennis DFS tournaments and DraftKings has come through with a big $30,000 prize pool with $5,000 to first. This week is set in Acapulco, Mexico with an ATP500 tournament, which happens to be a favorite location for many players. Enjoy the tournament with these tennis DFS picks, including John Isner and Soon-Woo Kwon.
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Recap of Yesterday’s Tennis DFS Picks
We went 3-for-4 yesterday with John Millman being the only loss in a tough three-setter against Taylor Fritz. Both Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev crushed their respective opponents as expected, while big underdog Ugo Humbert handled Nick Kyrgios‘ inconsistent nature quite easily through a set before the Aussie withdrew (Humbert still scored 70 thanks to Kyrgios finishing out the set). The ownership disparity between the two was surprising, as Kyrgios is usually a fan favorite. He came in at only 20.29%. Humbert was actually higher owned. Anyways, it should have been a successful day for those who tracked, so let’s follow that up with another solid day.
John Isner ($9,800)
Opponent: Marcos Giron
Odds to win: -360
Imagine having a serve that’s simply untouchable. That’s what John Isner has, especially on this surface. Marcos Giron is a solid journeyman, playing mostly Challenger-level tournaments while having a chance in a main draw on occasion. However, Isner’s serve will likely be untouchable again tonight, as Giron doesn’t have the means to defend it. Mischa Zverev generated zero break opportunities against Isner and Giron likely will face the same fate. With Isner’s ace rate being so high, a straight-set win nearly locks him into the optimal lineup.
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Xiyu Wang ($8,000)
Opponent: Sara Errani
Odds to win: -225
Pricing errors on DraftKings are few and far between these days, but lucky for us, Xiyu Wang is mispriced. As a -225 favorite, she should be $1,000 more than she actually is. Obviously, there’s a chance Sara Errani and her comedic double fault woes could pull off the upset, but for the price, Wang is one of the best options on the board.
Soon-Woo Kwon ($6,400)
Opponent: Dusan Lajovic
Odds to win: -115
This is another misprice by DraftKings, having Soon-Woo Kwon as a substantial underdog when in reality, the match is a 50/50 toss-up. He and Dusan Lajovic have extremely similar styles: solid serve, strong off the ground and good movement, all characteristics that suit this court well. They even wear the same outfit as both are FILA sponsors. The line in this match keeps switching back and forth between who’s favored, but in actuality, it is a pure toss-up, and we must take the value with Kwon who also feels $1,000 underpriced.
High Owned Fade: Felix Auger-Aliassime ($7,000)
Opponent: Kyle Edmund
Odds to win: +145
Due to his hot game log, and his name, Felix Auger-Aliassime may end up fairly chalky today. He’s 8-3 over his last 11 matches, but he has played a ton of tennis lately, making two straight finals and traveling from France to Mexico with only one day of rest. He was somewhat lucky to have gotten past Alex Bolt in straight sets yesterday. Kyle Edmund presents much more of a task, who’s most certainly fitter, and arguably wins this match-up even with both players fully fit. Edmund is riding a six-match win streak following his title in New York, only dropping one set in the process. He blew past fan favorite Feliciano Lopez in the first round and should handle the young Canadian who’s bitten off more than he can chew.
Potential Upset: Tommy Paul ($4,800)
Opponent: Alexander Zverev
Odds to win: +330
This is obviously *very* far-fetched. According to Vegas, Tommy Paul has a 23% chance of winning this match. This is actually more me fading Alexander Zverev than it is me backing Paul. Last night, we saw Zverev struggle to start, being broken in his first service game and serving eight double faults throughout the match. Is he back to his old ways after avoiding double faults in the Australian Open?
Jason Jung was able to take advantage of Zverev’s mentally weak mindset, forcing a tiebreak in the first set. Jung lost, but a better player like Paul could easily steal a set from Zverev in my opinion. I feel like the number on Zverev is too large, as his struggles could absolutely be there again tonight. Paul is no easy put-away.
I’m not necessarily expecting Paul to win by any means, but I do think he gives Zverev a bit of run for his money.
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