Tennis’ Euro swing continues this week in Germany, Belgium and the Czech Republic. Once again, with fewer points on the line and some with a spot locked in the ATP finals, we aren’t seeing all of the biggest names participating, but that also means we’ll see closer matches and tennis DFS scores. Like last week, all of our matches are on indoor courts as the weather turns cold, so we’ll want to pay attention to those switching surfaces and those who have success and numbers to back it up. Last week it was quite evident that the Russian courts were harder than the German courts (we get those again), so we’ll need to be on the lookout for that as well after we get a few days worth of data.
Tennis DFS Picks | DraftKings | Oct. 19
Favorites: Ugo Humbert ($10,600) | Opponent: Kimmer Coppejans
Sweep Odds: -241
A semi-finalist here last year in Belgium and at the peak of his game (38th in the world), I love this spot for the Frenchman Ugo Humbert. After having a quick exit in the French Open, he came back looking strong in Russia before losing to eventual champ Andrey Rublev in three sets. Humbert’s game is a good mixture of attack (66% service games won) and defense (36% return points won), which bodes well for him on any surface and for tennis DFS.
Kimmer Coppejans has beaten Humbert on indoors (2018) and is on his home turf, but with just a 3-13 mark for his career in ATP matches and no wins since 2019, I have no hesitation running lots of the 21-year-old Humbert here.
Favorite: Egor Gerasimov ($9,500) | Opponent: Daniel Altmaier
This is not going to be an easy slate with a lot of balanced matchups, but I do like this spot for Egor Gerasimov. Similar to Humbert above, Gerasimov is matched up with a player in their home country, but Daniel Altmaier is a defensive player with little experience facing an ATP service game on hard courts (two ATP career matches on hard courts). He looked overmatch last week against Henri Laaksonen. The Belarussian has upside for tennis DFS with over 10 aces per match the last year on hard courts and 66% service points won as well.
After struggling in his first match off clay last week in Cologne, and two wins in qualifying this week, I expect the tuned-up Gerasimov to overpower the German here.
Fade Pick: Frances Tiafoe ($9,000) | Opponent: Dusan Lajovic
I honestly feel like I could have listed about half of the favorites here, but Frances Tiafoe looks like today’s “winner.” A loser of his last three ATP matches, and with a long stretch of playing on clay, I think he’ll struggle mightily here with six seed Dusan Lajovic. Both men carry similar games with a reliance on movement and returning serves. Lajovic has an advantage in most of the return categories on hard courts, including return points won percentage, break points won percentage and return games won percentage.
As just a better player by any standard, I’m a bit confused by the odds here and expect Lajovic to win.
My upset pool may literally include everyone on the slate because there’s seemingly a narrative or advantages on each side of the ledger in every match. That said, below will be my most used dogs according to DraftKings:
- Barbora Krejcikova ($6,500) – She’s a favorite.
- Alexei Popyrin ($7,000) – He’s going to be popular with the weird pricing grid, but Adrian Mannarino can’t win apparently.
- Dusan Lajovic ($6,100) – See above.
- Jordan Thompson ($5,900) – He definitely let me down last week, but I like his athleticism and the aces are there
- Feliciano Lopez ($6,800) – It’s a tough price to swallow, but Tommy Paul has been playing a lot on clay, and Lopez can rack up aces (13 last match here).
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