It’s a new week back on the I-hard playing surface, but this time the players are in Paris. Luckily , we get the returning champion Ugo Humbert on the slate. At this point most of these players have had some recent time on the I-hard surface so we will try and use stats compiled so far from recent tournaments. Let’s get right to the tennis DFS picks for Nov. 2.
Tennis DFS Picks | Nov. 2
Alex De Minaur ($10,000)
Opponent: Stefano Travaglia
Opened at -380
The runner-up in the Antwerp Open, Alex De Minaur has won four of his last five on I-hard, even defeating the likes of Grigor Dimitrov and Marcos Giron. De Minaur is historically better on this surface than Stefano Travaglia, who is yet to beat an opponent this year that has a winning record on I-hard. De Minaur is currently winning more of his return points (48% to 45%) as well as first- and second-serve points. Travaglia was bounced in his last tournament in the first round by Tommy Paul, and I expect him to get bounced again by De Minaur in straight sets.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ($6,200)
Opponent: Karen Khachanov
Odds to win: +156
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has been on an impressive run this year on the I-hard surface, losing only to the No. 7 and No. 9 players. Fokina in his two most recent matches is winning 82% of his first-serve points and winning north of 50% of his second serve and return points while averaging one double fault per match. Karen Khachanov seems to have hit a dry patch where he’s found himself losing to most players ranked above 100 on I-hard. Khachanov has historically been good on this surface, but after the COVID break, he seems to still be coming into form. I’ll go with the in-form player here in Davidovich Fokina, and I expect him to win in three sets.
Marcos Giron ($8,400)
Opponent: Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Odds to win: -320
Albert Ramos Vinolas in his first game back lost to the No. 455-ranked Zizou Bergs and looked very rusty. Sitting at 1-7 in his last eight matches and 5-10 since 2017, it’s clear Ramos Vinolas has trouble with this surface. Marcos Giron is currently on a hot streak, winning six of his last seven with his last two in straight sets, and in dominant fashion. Giron in his two most recent matches is averaging a first-serve-won percentage north of 80% and only 0.5 double faults per match. I expect the in-form Giron to win this matchup in straight sets against the rusty Ramos Vinolas.
Salvatore Caruso ($7,600)
Opponent: Corentin Moutet
Opened at -116
Corentin Moutet has been having a down year so far, exiting in the first round of his last two I-hard tournaments. Moutet is 15-21 since 2018, while Salvatore Caruso is currently 15-17 in the same time period. Caruso has been the better player so far this year on I-hard, losing only two matches against players in the top 60. Moutet in his most recent two matches is winning just 57% of his first serve points and 27% of his return points. I’ll trust the in-form Caruso, who also won their most recent head-to-head to win this one in three sets.
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