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Tennis DFS: Australian Open DraftKings Fantasy Tennis Picks Today | Cristian Garin 1/18/22

Josh Anderson



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It is Day 3 of the Australia Open, and it is the most exciting day for tennis DFS purposes. DraftKings has its feature GPP up, with $30,000 up for grabs and a much more graspable 26 matches on the slate. The first couple days have been an enigma, but there have been plenty of giant scores as well. Tennis is not always the most predictable, but using Awesemo’s industry-leading projections is always a great place to start, with its win and sweep probabilities and statistical projections.

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DraftKings Fantasy Tennis DFS Picks Today

Top Pick: Cristian Garin ($7,800)

Opponent: Pedro Martinez

The recent form of Pedro Martinez (all of three matches) is the only reason this match is so closely projected, as Cristian Garin is over 40 spots higher in the ATP ranks while also carrying the head-to-head advantage at 2-0. Clay will always be the preferred surface for both of these combatants, as neither carries a big serve nor relies heavily on their mobility. The lack of serve is one issue for both, but to compound that issue, Martinez also struggles with double faults, as he demonstrated last match.

Garin was tested in the first round, which should serve him well against a similar opponent in Martinez. The skill level between these two is similar on hardcourts with Martinez actually having the Elo advantage (55% win probability) after Garin really struggled last year, with just two wins in eight matches. Garin will be focused with more on the line, and with Martinez’s propensity for double faults, Garin will have ample opportunities to break. That raises his ceiling for tennis DFS scoring as well.

Top Pick: Reilly Opelka ($8,700)

Opponent: Dominik Koepfer

With 26 matches on the slate, there is always ownership to go around. Reilly Opelka may be a better cash game play on this slate, as he will certainly garner ownership. That said, with his ability to serve (22 aces last match and zero double faults) he provides a path to a ceiling performance here against Dominik Koepfer. These two has extremely different styles, as Koepfer relies much on his grinder mentality and solid over all game, while Opelka will just depend on hitting at 140 mph.

The gap in odds is actually a bit surprising, as Koepfer has won the last three meetings between these two, including one in the 2019 U.S. Open (3-3 overall). Opelka is a streaky player who has looked strong to start 2022, reaching the semifinals in Sydney last week and sweeping former No. 5 Kevin Anderson in Round 1. The ownership will be there but with this number of matches constructing lineups that are different is easy enough.

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Fade: Jelena Ostapenko ($8,200)

Opponent: Alison Riske

Jelena Ostapenko is always a tough click when she is a favorite. Her fiery attitude is always for certain, but along with that comes her affliction for double faults (seven last match) and inability to maintain composure. Couple those obstacles along with the fact she is facing Alison Riske, who has come out very strong in 2022 with five wins in seven matches while reaching the finals in Adelaide last week. Ostapenko succeeded in their one head-to-head meeting in 2019, but in terms of surface preference, the advantage lies with the Riske, as she has over 200 career wins on the hard courts.

At $8,200 she is in near playable range, but regardless of the outcome it will not be clean. Riske is in form and at her price is in a much higher value/ceiling spot.

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"gottagetthiswiiin" - Born and raised in Wisconsin with a degree in Marketing. DFS has been a big part of my life since 2016 and has changed my career path and quality of life so much I can't not love it. I enjoy all sports and I'm definitely not a diehard Packers fan, or any team for that matter besides maybe the Wild. Love to travel with the wife and kid - Germany if I'm picking a favorite place. Hope to help people make more thoughtful, and informed, DFS decisions.

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