It is Day Four of this week’s tournaments, and we’ll get to see a ton of top talent on display. Over the next few weeks, the players will adapt back to the hard courts in preparation for the US Open. Both the men and women will be playing on the hard courts the week, with the tournament taking place in Canada. The fourth slate of this DFS tennis week has 14 matches with ATP and WTA players in action.
Not a member of Awesemo+? Sign up HERE for all our sports rankings and projections.
Daniil Medvedev (DraftKings $10,200; FanDuel $22)
Daniil Medvedev has been one of the best players on the ATP tour over the last 12 months, with a 46-14 record on the hard courts while taking down three titles. The ATP world number 10 has a legitimate chance to make a deep run at the US Open, and at this rate, it’ll take a top five player to knock him out. Since August of last year, Medvedev has lost only two matches on the hard courts to players ranked outside the top 25, and I don’t see that run coming to an end any time soon. He made a finals run in Washington this last week, losing to Nick Kyrgios 7-6 7-6, but that hasn’t stopped Daniil as he came out firing against Kyle Edmund. Medvedev won 6-3 6-0 in under an hour, so let’s hope he keeps rolling.
Medvedev’s second match is against Cristian Garin, the ATP world number 36 from Chile. Garin was arguably one of the top players during the clay court season, but he’s also looking to adapt a solid hard court game. He pulled off a surprising upset against John Isner today, 6-3 6-4, while winning almost 90% of first serve points. He was all over Isner’s serve as well, winning 61% of second serve points while breaking the big man twice. While it was a career win for Garin, Isner is not up to Medvedev’s standards. Isner is a one trick pony with the booming server, but Medvedev has one of the best all around games on the tour. Garin doesn’t have the ability to compete with the top players on the hard courts just yet, so we’re going with Daniil to win in straight sets.
Serena Williams (DraftKings $9,600; FanDuel $21)
The GOAT is back on action, as Serena Williams is looking to make a run in Toronto. Serena had a disappointing end to her grass court season, falling in the finals at Wimbledon for the second straight year. I didn’t think she’d come back strong after a loss like that at this stage of her career, but she shined against Elise Mertens. Serena was poor on the serving end, firing down just two aces and five double faults, but she converted on five break point chances. Once that serve is firing, everyone will be in trouble.
Her second match is against Ekaterina Alexandrova, the WTA world number 48 from Russia. Alexandrova has been one of the top hard court players on the WTA tour over the last 12 months, with a 30-13 record while taking down a title in Limoges. She has played four matches so far in Toronto without dropping a set, and her last match against Shuai Zhang was almost flawless. Alexandrova won 88% of all service points, losing just six points in total, while firing down aces at an 11% rate. In three out of her four matches she’s faced one or less break points, but that is bound to change against the best returner in the game. Alexandrova is in fine form, but you’re fighting with fire betting against Serena.
Hubert Hurkacz (DraftKings $8,800; FanDuel N/A)
I think the price point for Gael Monfils is extremely low on DraftKings, but I see it as a trap play against Hubert Hurkacz. Hurkacz has been nothing short of stellar on the hard courts over the last five months, with a 12-4 record while only losing to players currently ranked inside the top 25. Hurkacz took down three top 10 players during his impressive run in February and March, and I think he has the ability to keep that level of play up. He just took another top five player in Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, so he has all the momentum. Hurkacz has served aces at a 10% rate in this tournament while dropping serve just twice, and I think he can break the slate if he plays at his best.
Hurkacz is up against Monfils, the world number 20 from France. Monfils has not been good at all as of late, losing his last three grass court matches and barely managing to win his first two here in Montreal. He has looked sluggish and exhausted, it’s hard to watch and it certainly shows in the stats. Monfils has faced 12 break points in total against two players ranked outside the top 125, and he’s firing down aces 5% of the time. His price point is way too low, I’m sure he’ll be the highest owned player on the slate, but he has not been good. I’m rolling with Hurkacz to win and move on to the quarterfinals.
Possible upset/value plays: Bianca Andreescu (DraftKings $7,500; FanDuel $18)
Bianca Andreescu is on an absolute roll, with a 33-4 record since late December while taking down three top 10 players. All but three matches were on a hard court, which shows that she has the game to take down this title in her home country. Andreescu took home the title in both Indian Wells and Newport earlier this season, and after a long injury stint, she is back for more. Her first two matches in Toronto weren’t all too impressive as both went to three sets and she lost 10 service games, but that’s her playstyle. She owns it on the return end, as she’s converted on 14 out of her 33 break point chances thus far.
Her third round match is against Kiki Bertens, the WTA world number five. It’s no secret that Bertens is the best clay court player on the WTA tour by a mile, but she has also had plenty of success on the hard surfaces. Over the last 12 months, she’s captured three titles while posting a 34-14 record. Kiki’s first match was a beatdown, as she defeated Francesca Di Lorenzo 6-2 6-1 in just over an hour. Bertens did not lose a single service game while winning 87% of first serve points, but Andreescu will make those numbers decline dramatically. Bianca is familiar with taking down the top players and she has the home crowd behind her, which is why I’m going with her to get the job done.
Best of luck!