Clay season has resumed across Europe, with two events running on both tours. DraftKings has decided to leave the hardcourt matches in Los Cabos to its own slate (night session) up to this point. Yesterday was loaded with a lot of unknown names and unpredictability, but today there are a few more known commodities. With plenty to choose from, let’s get into tennis DFS picks for Tuesday, July 20.
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Top Palermo Ladies Open DraftKings Tennis DFS Picks
To help make one of the many difficult decisions, I will be using Awesemo’s industry-leading tennis DFS projections, which also include regressed match data and outcome probabilities.
Kamilla Rakhimova ($7,100)
Opponent: Olga Danilovic
Odds: +102 (SugarHouse)
The pricing and market odds on Kamilla Rakhimova are a bit baffling here against Olga Danilovic. After a great 2019 that saw her win 53 matches overall and five lower-level events, she and Danilovic have shared similar results. Both have won more than they have lost, but Rakhimova still has a slight advantage overall (10-6 on clay). With both players being so young, their service games are often erratic and problematic. That is no different here, with both carrying awful hold percentages and double fault percentages. What that all equals for tennis DFS is a close match involving to evenly match opponents, so the lesser-priced has far greater value.
The big edge Rakhimova carries coming into this match is her head-to-head record of 3-0 against Danilovic. With both being so inexperienced, this advantage speaks to Rakhimova’s dominance.
Astra Sharma ($9,500)
Opponent: Lucrezia Stefanini
Odds: -250 (SugarHouse)
Astra Sharma has had plenty of success at the lower levels of women’s tennis but has yet to find consistency in her game. 2021 may just be the turning point for her, as she won her first singles title and has split her 18 matches on the WTA. She has steadily improved her service game every year now over a 70% hold rate, and she has first and second serve percentages well above 50%. Her opponent, Lucrezia Stefanini, is in her first year playing any WTA matches even though she is 23. What this says is she has struggled even at a lower level of competition (209-153 record).
Sharma’s much better game should control this match easily against Stefanini. If Sharma can avoid any sort of early rush, she should cruise.
Upset Tennis DFS Picks
Cristina Bucsa, Viktoriya Tomova, Magdalena Frech
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