We are moving on to clay surfaces for the first slate post U.S. Open, so there may be a lot of rust from players who are playing their first clay match of the year. But let’s skip right to the picks for Sept. 9 Tennis DFS.
Tennis DFS Picks: DraftKings | 9/9
Patricia Maria Tig ($7,700)
Opponent: Olga Danilovic
Odds to win: +175
So far in 2020, Danilovic has been playing well on clay, posting a record of 6-3 to Tig’s 0-2. Lets not forget that in 2019 Tig went 20-5 compared to Danilovic’s 18-10. Most of Danilovic’s wins are against players outside of the top 150, and she hasn’t recorded a clay win against someone in the top 100 in the last two years.
Tig has been the more mistake-free player as well as the player with the stronger first and second serve. I expect Tig’s experience against higher-level competition to pay off here and wouldn’t be surprised if she wins in straight sets.
Caroline Garcia ($9,400)
Opponent: Cagla Buyukakcay
Odds to win: -215
2019 has been Buyukakcay’s only good year on the clay surface. Almost every other year, including 2020, she’s had a losing record. These two have a history, but only on grass, where Garcia dispatched of her in straight sets. This is a big step up for No. 186 player, and I expect it to be too much for her.
Buyukakcay has a weak second serve won percentage, sometimes posting up numbers of 30% or less. Garcia in her recent form has been averaging second serve won rates of well over 50%. This discrepancy and the many will be too much for Buyukakcay to overcome.
Philipp Kohlschreiber ($7,600)
Opponent: Jannik Sinner
Odds to win: +102
When the odds first came out, Kohlschreiber was the favorite, and at some point the lines moved to where he’s a slight underdog. Kohlschreiber has been playing better than Sinner across all surfaces. Kohlschreiber has also been averaging a better first serve and second serve won percentage as well as first and second serve return points. Kohlschreiber should be the favorite barring any unseen news that would lower his stock. I expect Kohlschreiber to win in three sets.
Tereza Martincova ($8,600)
Opponent: Greet Minnen
Odds to win: -240
Minnen has been the better clay player since 2018, posting a 32-12 record compared to Martincova’s 27-23. Minnen also currently has the better serve game, posting a first serve won rate 3% higher than Martincova’s and a second serve won rate 11% higher than Martincova’s. Martincova does have the better return game but tends to double fault a lot. This is a very winnable match for Minnen, and I would be wary of having too much Martincova.
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