Day 4 saw an interesting slate of tennis filled with upsets with Ekaterina Alexandrova falling to Catherine McNally after taking the first set and Ernesto Escobedo running out of steam, also after taking the first set in his match. The Aryna Sabalenka match was a pick-’em, but Victoria Azarenka is currently playing lights out and was too much for mistake-prone Sabalenka to deal with. The Alex de Minaur fade worked out, as he posted a low score of 64 points on DraftKings. Sloane Stephens brought her A-game and beat Olga Govortsova in straight sets, moving to 3-0 head-to-head against her. The lone bright spot was Ons Jabeur, who won in straight sets. I am hoping for a better Day 5, so let’s get right into these DFS tennis picks.
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DFS Tennis Picks: U.S. Open Day 5 DraftKings Picks | 9/4/20
DFS Tennis Pick: Shelby Rogers ($8,700)
Opponent: Madison Brengle
Odds to win: -220
Rogers has been playing really well on the hard surface this year, posting a record of 13-7 compared to Brengle’s 9-6. Brengle has been winning most of her matches by allowing her opponent to beat themselves. Dayana Yastremska had 43 unforced errors compared to Brengle’s 15. Rogers hasn’t been having this issue with unforced errors this tournament, which will force Brengle to rely on her skills rather than hoping for her opponent to make a mistake. I expect this to be a close matchup, but I think Rogers can pull it off.
Rogers currently leads Brengle in almost every important statistic and has a first serve won percentage 13% higher than Brengle’s. Brengle’s path to victory is if Shelby makes the same unforced errors her previous opponents did, but I don’t see this happening again.
DFS Tennis Pick: Jennifer Brady ($9,300)
Opponent: Caroline Garcia
Odds to win: -300
These two have history, and Brady leads the head-to-head on hard court 3-1. This year Brady is 19-5 on the hard surface to Garcia’s 5-5. Brady’s last seven wins have been in straight sets and in dominant fashion, with Brady rarely losing more than three games in a set.
In Brady’s last match she won 74% of her first serve points and had only 13 unforced errors, while Garcia won 63% of her first-serve points to go along with 17 unforced errors. Brady should win this in straight sets.
DFS Tennis Pick: Yulia Putintseva ($7,900)
Opponent: Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Odds to win: -130
Sasnovich has been playing well this tournament. Through the first two tournament matches, she is averaging a 69.5% first serve won percentage and a second serve won percentage of 52%, compared to Putintseva, who is hovering around 63% and 58%, respectively. Putintseva sometimes plays to the level of her competition and should be able to do enough to get the win in three sets.
Putintseva has been winning in dominant fashion, posting scores of 6-1, 6-1 and 6-3, 6-1. Sasnovich’s first match in the tournament went to three sets against Francesca Di Lorenzo. Putintseva should be in better form and will do enough to win this match.
Potential Upset Pick: Magda Linette ($4,900)
Opponent: Anett Kontaveit
Odds to win: +355
Linette and Kontaveit have an extensive history, with Linette leading the head-to-head 4-2. The only time they met on the hard surface, Linette won in straight sets. In fact, Linette has won the last three times they’ve met.
In their matches so far this tournament, they both have first serve won percentages in the mid-70s, and their unforced errors are both under 15. Kontaveit is good but very beatable, and I think Linette can win this in straight sets. A lost set at Kontaveit’s price range would lead to a bad fantasy output.
Fade Pick: Petra Kvitova ($9,200)
Opponent: Jessica Pegula
Odds to win: -280
Pegula has been playing well this year, beating several top opponents like Sabalenka, Brady, Kirsten Flipkens and Amanda Anisimova. Pegula has also posted an impressive 16-6 record on the hard surface this year. Kvitova has been putting up some impressive numbers, but if Pegula manages to get her unforced errors in check, she should be able to take a set from Kvitova and prevent her from being optimal.
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