I managed to finish 3-2 after terrible games from Shuai Zhang and Jil Teichman on an interesting U.S. Open Day 2. Teichmann had four double faults compared to Aliona Bolsova’s zero. Teichmann converted a meager 10% of her break points. Zhang also struggled to win break points and won only 60% of her first serve compared to Ysaline Bonaventure’s 68%. The Monica Puig fade worked, as she ended up losing the match anyway. An interesting note is with her losing the match, I’m now 2-for-2 on picking fades that end up losing. The Sorana Cirstea underdog pick worked out, and she played a great game, winning in straight sets. Garbine Muguruza had to shake some rust off but still ended up winning 6-4, 6-4. Still, her final score of 66 wouldn’t have been optimal for DraftKings purposes. But tomorrow is a new day, so lets get right into some tennis DFS picks for Day 2 of the U.S. Open on Sept. 2.
DraftKings Tennis DFS Picks | U.S. Open, Day 3
Yulia Putintseva ($9,500)
Opponent: Vera Lapko
Odds to win: -400
Putintseva is coming off of a massive 80-point score where she lost only four games and had zero double faults. Lapko is coming off of a win where she lost the same number of games as she won and had two double faults to go along with it. Lapko is currently 2-6 on the hard surface since 2019, while Putintseva is 31-21. I expect Putintseva to be more comfortable on this surface and win in straight sets.
Lapko has played only one match in 2020, so the sample size of data to siphon through is a bit smaller. Lapko has a first serve won percentage of 70.6% compared to Putintseva’s 69.3%, but as I said earlier, Lapko’s sample size is small while Putintseva has over 14 matches in 2020. Another stat that stands out is Lapko’s return games won of only 10% compared to Putintseva’s 33.3%. The sample size for Lapko is small, but overall the numbers aren’t on her side. Putintseva should win this one pretty easily.
Angelique Kerber ($8,800)
Opponent: Anna Friedsam
Odds to win: -303
Friedsam is lucky to have made it out of the previous round, but her tournament hopes will end here. Last time they played each other, Kerber beat her in straight sets, including one clean set. Kerber is 28-17 since 2019 on the hard surface compared to Friedsam’s 16-8. Friedsam was on a three-match losing streak on hard surface until her win against Caroline Dolehide. Kerber has won four of her last five on the hard surface with three of the five coming in straight sets.
Kerber has a better return game, winning 39.7% compared to 32.4% for Friedsam. Friedsam’s first serve won percentage is 1.8% better than Kerber’s, but Kerber’s break points saved percentage is almost 10% higher than Friedsam’s. Kerber should get the better of Friedsam in the volleys and may even get a clean set.
Jennifer Brady ($8,300)
Opponent: Catherine Bellis
Odds to win: -200
This match should be a good one, and it is their first rematch since 2018 where Bellis won 7-6, 7-5. 2018 wasn’t the best year for Brady on the hard surface; she had a 8-12 record compared to Bellis’ 12-7 record. Since 2019, however, Brady has a 49-21 record on the hard surface compared to Bellis’ 12-6. The Brady Bellis will face tomorrow will be a much better version that may even win in straight sets.
Brady is winning 67.7% of her first serves compared to Bellis’ 61.4%. Bellis has a slightly better return game percentage of 35.8% compared to Brady’s 27.5%. But Brady is winning service games at such a high rate that the match may get out of hand before Bellis can get her reigns.
Egor Gerasimov ($6,900)
Opponent: Jordan Thompson
Odds to win: +104
Gerasimov has won three of his last four, including a win over No. 10-ranked David Goffin in straight sets. Thompson has also won three of his last four but against weaker competition like Michael Mmoh and Thiago Monteiro. Gerasimov is 29-17 since 2019 compared to Thompson’s 18-19. Thompson so far this year has a losing record on hard surface, and I expect another loss to be added after his match with Gerasimov.
Gerasimov currently has a first serve won percentage of 76% compared to Thompson’s 73%. Gerasimov is also saving 72% of break points compared to Thompson’s 66%. Gerasimov has a slight 3% advantage in return games won. Expect this match to be close, but Gersaimov will win in four sets.
Steve Johnson ($7,900)
Opponent: Ricardas Berankis
Odds to win: -140
Johnson has been playing well so far this year and has managed to put up a record of 18-6 on the hard surface compared to Berankis’ 8-6. Johnson has been playing a lot of Challenger tournaments, though, so his level of competition hasn’t been as high for all those matches, and that record may be inflated. Berankis currently leads the head-to-head, winning 6-4, 6-2, but this was in 2015. Interestingly enough, Johnson had a better record on the hard surface back in 2015 when he lost to Berankis. I expect him to either win in five sets or lose the match, but either way, fading the match seems to be the best option.
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