[PPP]
Today’s slate is notable for its aces: Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, Ross Stripling, Max Scherzer, James Paxton, and All-Star snub Blake Snell all are taking the mound tonight. That’s better than most 15 game slates and this one is only 7. Yesterday I talked a lot about how Chris Sale’s ownership along with other studs would decrease ownership of the expensive bats, and that ended up being the case: the top players on the Rockies that ended up being crucial to winning only had around 15% ownership in the big tournaments. I expect that to be the case again today, but it only will matter if we can find adequate mid to low priced pitchers to put in our lineups.
Taking one of the aforementioned pitchers is certainly a reasonable strategy. Of the bunch, I’m less optimistic about Luis Severino, Blake Snell, and James Paxton. They all are great pitchers but the Cleveland lineup, the Twins lineup, and the Angels projected lineup all strike-out far less often than average. With their price tags they don’t make for great value, so I’m relegating them to sleeper picks only. Stripling has the best match-up vs. the Padres, who K more than average, and he’s the least expensive of the bunch, so I think he’s the best value. His ownership looks reasonable on both sites so I really like him tonight. Kluber and Scherzer both are facing teams that strike out a little less than average, but Scherzer has the best K% of the bunch and Kluber is quite a bit lower than his typical price. I like going to any of those three for GPPs or cash.
There are plenty of mid-priced pitchers that are in great spots today. The best spot is Taillon vs. the Brewers because of the price. The Brewers strike out a bit more than average and their team total is a low 4.2. Taillon is coming off a good performance but somehow his price tag dropped about 2k from his season average on DK. I like him on FanDuel as well where he is more fairly priced but much lower owned. I think he’s the best pick on DraftKings of all of the pitchers based on price and projected performance. David Price has also seen his price steadily drop, so he’s a good value on DK. I also think Steven Matz and Tyson Ross are underpriced today, while Kyle Gibson and Tyler Skaggs have reasonable price tags.
With so many reasonable options it’s going to be tough to choose which direction to go tonight. In cash on DK I like going with Scherzer and Taillon who make a nice combo in price. On FanDuel cash Scherzer is an easy pick without a lot of high projected teams. But I think in GPP’s ownership is going to come into play a lot more.
Check our ownership projections before lock to get our best estimates for tonight’s slate.
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