Bundesliga DFS: Showdown Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel | SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | May 29

Welcome to Bundesliga DFS for May 29 (5/29/20). Here you’ll find our top plays, all things considered. The players who have price-considered floor/ceiling on DraftKings are especially highlighted. Keep in mind that teams are now allowed five substitutions instead of three due to lack of training during the hiatus.


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Bundesliga Odds Report

SC Freiburg (+360) vs Bayer Leverkusen (-155), O/U 3

Bundesliga DFS Top Plays: SC Freiburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Today’s afternoon matchup features a Bayer Leverkusen team inching their way to a top-three finish and they need to take advantage of SC Freiburg who sit just above the mid-pack teams in the table. The odds favor Leverkusen and the goal totals are a little higher than I would expect given both teams have respectable defenses. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, the prices on the Leverkusen guys make it hard to attack the offenses and player price points make the strategy for each site interesting to say the least. The captains not chosen for the spot should filter down to flex as priority over the flex spots.

Captain Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel

In order of what I believe are the top players per dollar, including median projection, floor and upside.

Kai Havertz (DraftKings $15,300, FanDuel $15)

Havertz’s run this season is undeniable since filling in for Kevin Volland, and Volland won’t be back for this match so let’s keep the streak going. Havertz didn’t net one in his last outing, but the chances where there. He keeps firing away and I am starting to feel comfortable about his floor in the event he does not net one. If Leverkusen puts up goals, fading Havertz could be costly. Awesemo’s projections see Havertz as the top projected player on both DraftKings and FanDuel at 17.08 points and 20.24 points, respectively, and top-three value on both at 1.12 and 13.49. With his price being pretty much the top you will need to punt a spot or two to fit him in here.

Kai Havertz 2019-2020 stats: 10 goals, 5 assists, 48 shots.

Kerem Demirbay (DraftKings $14,100, FanDuel $13)

Demirbay is also expensive but provides slight salary relief from Havertz and has a safer floor. He takes set pieces for Leverkusen, leading to an onslaught of crosses and assisted shots. Awesemo’s projections have him as a top-four value play on FanDuel at 11.59 and top-three projection at 15.07. On DraftKings, projections have him as top-two, falling slightly below Havertz at 15.84. The price should keep his DraftKings captain ownership low, but he is a safe floor alternative to both Havertz and Vincenzo Grifo.

Kerem Demirbay 2019-2020 stats: 5 assists, 115 crosses, 36 shots assisted.

Nils Petersen (DraftKings $9,000, FanDuel $11)

This is more of a DraftKings-specific play as he doesn’t come at a discount on FanDuel. Petersen is the scorer for SC Freiburg and it really is goal or bust for him. I won’t be getting there on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, he lets you get all the potential goal involvement if you are playing the high-scoring game. I expect he will have no ownership, especially given the odds on the game, but you do not need a lot to gain leverage in this showdown.

Nils Petersen 2019-2020 stats: 9 goals, 48 shots, 29 shots assisted.

Other Options: Karim Bellarabi (DraftKings $12,600, FanDuel $7, Awesemo’s projections top value on FanDuel at 23.63 and 1.14 on DraftKings)


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FLEX Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel

Lucas Holer (DraftKings $6,400, FanDuel $12)

As mentioned above, you need salary relief and Holer provides that with upside. He does a little bit of everything with drawing fouls and shooting, and he fits nicely with lineups favoring SC Freiburg or as the odd man out in a Leverkusen onslaught situation. Awesemo’s projections have him at middle of the pack with 7.7 on DraftKings. It is hard to get to him on FanDuel, but he certainly fits the “pay up to be contrarian” narrative.

Lucas Holer 2019-2020 stats: 5 goals, 2 assists, 39 shots.

Robin Koch (DraftKings  $4,000, FanDuel $6)

This is a pure punt play on DraftKings as his floor is rock bottom and you do not need to roster a defender. But at this price, you do not need a lot from him. On FanDuel, where clearances matter, he serves as a solid cheap defender spot. Awesemo’s projections have him as a solid value at 1.00 on DraftKings and 11.06 on FanDuel .

Nadiem Amiri (DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $9)

I seem to have a soft spot for the guy because I keep rostering him. His stats are a bit misleading because his distribution of the ball in crosses in volatile. If you dig into this, you can find when he’s in the winger spot he can create and feed the ball in, but when he is slotted in the attacking midfielder role he is more lost in the shuffle. Having said that, when lineups come out, if he’s on the wing, I will bump him up. If he’s in the middle, he might not make the cut. Awesemo’s projections have him as solid value at 11.42 and points at 10.28 on FanDuel.

Other Options: Christian Gunter (DraftKings $7,600, FanDuel $9), Lukas Hradecky (DraftKings $7,400, DraftKings-specific as no goalies on FanDuel single game; needs clean sheet or bust)

Game Strategy

I am a fan of stacking 5-1 or 4-2 on showdowns, I like trying to stay under a high total expectancy in this game and focus on the scoring of Leverkusen with a solid distributor form SC Freiburg. Because I favor Havertz, I am OK with punting a roster spot on Leverkusen in order to pair him with, say, a Diaby, Bellarabi, Demirbay or a mix of two out of the three. In MME spots, I like the 4-2 SC Freiburg and picking out concentrated scoring form the Leverkusen side, even at the expense of leaving money on the table.


Looking for more EPL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo EPL home page, just click HERE

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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