DFS strategy: Awesemo’s Office Hours, Premium Slack Chat (June 12)

DFS Strategy: The following transcript is from Awesemo’s weekly premium Office Hours.

Awesemo [6:54 PM] @channel Taking some questions and building some US open lineups tonight.  AMA!

travyg [6:55 PM] Whats your pre-lock go to when building lineups (music, meditation, white noise, silence etc.)

Awesemo [6:56 PM] Live Before Lock

Wiggy [6:56 PM] Any weather edge? Tee time wave I mean

Llama Trainer [6:57 PM] Isn’t this event harder to judge with the course always moving.

Wiggy [6:57 PM] How many lineups and how many players do you put in your player pool

Awesemo [6:58 PM] I think that you might be able to get an edge stacking tee times but it’s not how I try to get my edge

Llama Trainer [6:58 PM] @Awesemo any plans for Father’s Day weekend?

Jake Hari [6:59 PM] Do you have any PGA nuggets for the fish like me?

Awesemo [6:59 PM] I don’t think it’s necessarily harder to judge because they played on the same course in the PGA  in past years.  The course is a bit different but comparable

About 50-60 players in my lineups for tomorrow

DumpsterFire [7:00 PM] How important is course history? How do you approach golfers who may have never played the course?

Wiggy [7:00 PM] What tips do you give for someone playing 5 or less lineups for PGA

FkCoolers [7:00 PM] make em count

Awesemo [7:00 PM]

Optimizing for points doesn’t work perfectly in PGA compared to other sports because high projected players are undervalued and low projected are overvalued

Something like a stars and scrubs lineup doesn’t really work in PGA either

FkCoolers [7:01 PM] In short, nothing works?

Awesemo [7:01 PM] I think course history is probably overvalued and what’s more important is their long term history

Llama Trainer [7:02 PM] This course is historically a pro am event though

FkCoolers [7:02 PM] Do you put much stock into steamed vegas outright lines or anything like that?

KellyCanuck [7:02 PM] Also, as our man Bric75 pointed out, course history is already baked into the Vegas lines.

Llama Trainer [7:03 PM] your man?

Awesemo [7:03 PM] yea I look at the vegas odds to win but I have noticed they are pretty biased

For example this week Brooks Koepka and Tiger woods have way higher odds than they should just because that’s what people are willing to pay

Who are you guys on this week?

Llama Trainer [7:05 PM] What do mean by willing to pay? Daily or betting

Awesemo [7:05 PM] Books offer 9/1 for Koepka because people pay it is what I mean

not because that’s the actual odds

Llama Trainer [7:05 PM] Translate that to dfs

DumpsterFire [7:05 PM] Do you use more randomness in your crunches in golf than other sports?

FkCoolers [7:06 PM] I’m on some names like Bryson, Oosthuizen, and Reed for truly egregious GPP stabs (edited)

Awesemo [7:06 PM] A lot of people go off the vegas odds to judge players but you have to be aware of the biases that are built into it like previous winners or people on hot streaks etc

Llama Trainer [7:06 PM] correct

So he gains some ownership

large field so it’s not by much

Awesemo [7:07 PM] not necessarily because in Golf the variance is less when expressed as a % of total projection I think.  Baseball I use higher variance because the batter variance is so high, where basketball is the lowest

Llama Trainer [7:07 PM] ah Solid

DumpsterFire [7:07 PM] Makes sense

Llama Trainer [7:07 PM] Love that so you can naturally the curve flatten a bit for randomness. little less randomness

Awesemo [7:08 PM] yea with FC pro tonight I used 40% randomness with the normal feature

Llama Trainer [7:08 PM] about the same 35

Wiggy [7:08 PM] You fading anyone above $10K

Awesemo [7:09 PM] I have 0% spieth but don’t tell Jason

Llama Trainer [7:09 PM] I notice exposure hovers around a range is ownership something that you specifically set a rule to

Wiggy [7:09 PM] Haha, same

Awesemo [7:10 PM] I like setting ownership for each player because FC having a different player pool for each lineup creates some interesting combinations of players

In PGA it’s not essential though.  Randomness works pretty well

Neil [7:10 PM] If running a single entry team who is the 2 players you must have?

Jake Hari [7:10 PM] Do you make more lineups than you need in every sport and filter down to your best 150?

Awesemo [7:11 PM] I like Webb Simpson on DK and Fleetwood on FD

Llama Trainer [7:11 PM] @Awesemo last question. Can you really shoot a hot pull up jumper?

Awesemo [7:11 PM] Yup I like to make a lot of lineups and then find the ones that fit my criteria the best

Dshook420 [7:12 PM] @Awesemo where do you get your contest data, historical and present. And how important do you think it is to study the tournaments you play

Awesemo [7:12 PM] I did win the Fanduel 3 point shootout but the competition was pretty limited.  Only 4 people showed up because we were hooping at 8 am

Dshook420 [7:12 PM] Damn! A win is a win

Awesemo [7:13 PM] Well on DK you can download the CSVs so getting the contest data is easiest.  On FD I don’t use it as much for that reason

Dshook420 [7:14 PM] The download is kinda messy, any tips on cleaning up the lineup column? Or do you think it’s not so important. The top score and ownership being the most relevant I would guess

Awesemo [7:14 PM] The easiest way is to use the text to columns feature in Excel

ctrl h and change all of the roster positions to a , or some other delimiter and then you can separate them into columns

Dshook420 [7:15 PM] Wow thanks. That’s a great one

Wiggy [7:16 PM] My bruins going to score…make this interesting ???

Awesemo [7:16 PM] I think so.  Some guy on twitter said it would be 5-3

Dshook420 [7:18 PM] Jake ask more good questions (edited) . Come on

FkCoolers [7:18 PM] With as much volume as you play, do you enter the same 150 build into 150 max GPPs at similar buy in levels, do you enter a unique LU set into each separate contest etc?

I go back and forth on what might be best long-term with that

Dshook420 [7:19 PM] Great question

Awesemo [7:19 PM] I usually enter my top 150 into each just because it’s easier logistically

Ideally you make different lineups for each contest but it requires some smart programming to pull that off and have it not cost you ROI

FkCoolers [7:20 PM] Yeah I was trying =rand() and got burned twice and quit haha

Dshook420 [7:20 PM] Yeah I’m generally torn as well, if I play a 150 max and a 20 max, I lean towards top 170, rather than the top 20 (edited)

What are some of your favorite baseball statistics @Awesemo

I feel like a new one comes out every day, but which ones to you lean on

Awesemo [7:24 PM] One sneaky favorite is batting average.  Not great for evaluating player talent but guys that walk a lot are usually not as good for fantasy

Least favorite is OPS.  It makes no sense because slugging is bases/at bat and that’s also counted in OBP.

KellyCanuck [7:27 PM] Not sure if I missed this: Do you worry about total ownership in your PGA lineups? Ie. Do you aim for a certain number or less than a certain number?

Dshook420 [7:27 PM] If someone were trying to generate their own top stacks percentages, what would be the first thing you would recommend they take into account, obviously without giving away too much @Awesemo (edited)

Jenstar [7:28 PM] @Awesemo in relation to the batting average comment, how do you factor in something like MWOBA?  Do you give BA more or less weight when picking a player?

Awesemo [7:28 PM] I incorporate ownership into my process so I don’t necessarily try to aim for target numbers but I have found almost always the highest projected thus highest owned lineups are usually suboptimal

Probably the team totals for each team is a good metric to measure a team’s offensive potential on a night

tough to say because I don’t know what MWOBA is haha

but I don’t like WOBA because of the way it is calculated.  It’s more effective to take all of the underlying stats separately instead of combining them into one number

Jenstar [7:30 PM] MWOBA is WOBA that factors in handedness of the opposing pitcher.

Awesemo [7:31 PM] Gotcha.  This kind [link] of illustrates what I’m talking about

Jenstar [7:31 PM] I have one more question. What the hell does it feel like to win $100k in a night?

:joy:

Awesemo [7:32 PM] I like it.  I like it a lot!

Dshook420 [7:33 PM] That definitely does illustrate your point.

Awesemo [7:33 PM] Alright guys final questions while I upload my pga lineups.  Let’s get that FU money

FkCoolers [7:33 PM] Do bother to utilize late swap in MLB in case pitchers tank early etc or is it set and forget

Awesemo [7:34 PM] I’ve tried some strategies revolving around late swap like picking pitchers early and if they are going off go with the chalk stacks in the late games or if they suck going contrarian.  The only thing is that west coast games are rarely the best for fantasy

Jenstar [7:34 PM] Can you please post your favorite PGA lineup?  I’d like to know what winning $100k feels like too

Awesemo [7:34 PM] haha. I tried to make an all-narrative lineup with Koepka Spieth Woods and Mickelson but sadly I couldn’t get it under the cap (edited)

Jenstar [7:35 PM] Thank you for everything

Awesemo [7:36 PM] For sure.  It’s been real.  Talk to you guys later!

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