Welcome to The Heaters! For each UFC card, I will provide three wild UFC betting picks that I find interesting. This week we’re looking at the UFC odds and betting lines for the UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs. Volkov.
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The Heaters: UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs. Volkov MMA Betting Picks
Alexander Volkov via KO/TKO +130
If Alexander Volkov wants to win this fight against Alistair Overeem, he needs to keep the fight standing, prevent takedowns and pick Overeem apart from the outside. I understand that Volkov is not a power puncher, but he is precise and relentless with his volume. Overeem has been knocked out 14 times in MMA at a rate of 21.54% of his fights. Volkov has 21 knockouts and knocks his opponents out at a rate of 52.5% of his fights.
Alexandre Pantoja via Submission +260
Alexandre Pantoja has become a staple within the flyweight division and has developed his striking so much that people forget about his jiu-jitsu. Pantoja’s grappling is in the elite category, and I think that could be going overlooked here against the UFC newcomer Manel Kape. Despite how talented Pantoja is in the striking department, I wouldn’t recommend doing that here against Kape, who has impressive power. Pantoja’s path of least resistance is to take Kape down and capture the neck. Pantoja has a submission rate of 29.63% of his fights, and Kape has been submitted twice in his career.
Jerome Rivera +175
This matchup is one where the industry is completely disregarding Jerome Rivera. On the regional scene Rivera was a savvy grappler, executing heavy top pressure en route to seven submission victories. I recognize that this is not an easy matchup against Ode Osbourne, and he is an explosive athlete with decent striking and jiu-jitsu. Osbourne can threaten Rivera early and often, but I have some confidence in Rivera’s toughness after he went the distance against Deiveson Figueiredo‘s brother. Osbourne has been put on his back in both the Contender Series bout and his debut against Brian Kelleher. I think Rivera will look to clinch Osbourne and implement that top pressure.
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