Nothing like returning home after two straight road losses just to host an angry Golden State Warriors team fresh off a loss to Memphis. While Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry will lead their respective teams tonight in Milwaukee, it is who is out for each team that may make a bigger impact. Draymond Green is doubtful for the Warriors, and Klay Thompson is still on a heavy minutes restriction. The Bucks are not expecting Jrue Holiday to return from injury and are still down George Hill and possibly their coach Mike Budenholzer, all in the COVID protocols. Grayson Allen is off the injury report and should be back. With so many moving parts on the Warriors and Holiday most likely out, it should be a big opportunity for both Khris Middleton and Andrew Wiggins. This game marks the first of four on the road for the Warriors.
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Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks | Warriors vs. Bucks
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Best Warriors vs. Bucks NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
The easiest place to find the best bets in the NBA is on the one-stop shop for value and where to place a wager. The best part is the tool is free and easy to use. Simply filter, sort the page and find the best return available across all books.
Over 223 (-110, PointsBet)
The overall application of OddsShopper allows bettors to find the best number to play, with the book and return selected. All one needs to do is apply some basic information like a play that is of interest, and the site will provide the best return. The over on the point total is great because the Warriors’ top-rated defense shifts significantly without Green on the floor. The Bucks are also down Holiday at the point, who can slow tempo down on both sides. It is just harder to slow down an offense on both sides without two key defenders in this game. Golden State does not really match up well with Giannis and Curry should torch a depleted Bucks backcourt. Bettors can sprinkle in some ancillary scoring with guys like Thompson and Grayson Allen, all helping push to the over. Most books are asking for the extra half point at 223.5, but there is a small break on OddsShopper with the same juice.
Klay Thompson Under 14.5 Points (-125, DraftKings)
Thompson should have a restriction on his minutes, which in turn will impact his scoring. His first game was more of an outlier of his team ushering him looks from 3. But there will be a slower process in getting Thompson back into full game shape. Awesemo has Thompson projected for 11.3 points, which is a huge gap between what the books are offering. OddsShopper sees a 71% return on this prop staying under the point total. Thompson went from 17 to 14 points with fewer looks. He may be in that same category tonight, as the Warriors are not pressed to force-feed him looks.
Khris Middleton Under 21.5 Points (-114, FanDuel)
OddsShopper has a high return on this prop, with a 68% chance of Middleton staying under his points, plus a 28% expected ROI on the play. Awesemo has Middleton projected under 20 points at 18.2, nearly a full basket between projection and the book. It would stand to reason that without Holiday on the floor Middleton has a bigger target for the Warriors defense. While it will not be Green floating to make things tough, they will certainly ask Wiggins to help slow down Middleton. The Warriors will have a plan and most likely will allow Giannis to do whatever he wants while slowing down Middleton to a complete halt.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 30.5 Points (-115, FanDuel)
Awesemo has a low projection of just 25.4 points for Antetokounmpo. It is hard to ignore a full 5-point gap between Awesemo’s projection and what the books have down. There are plenty of guys around him to help the Bucks score some points, but the general idea here is that the Warriors are going to double Giannis, making it harder to score. Giannis is projected for 6.4 assists and 10.7 rebounds, so there is a pathway to having a decent night. There is one more thing that has added to Giannis’ point totals: Free throws. He did not get to the line nearly as much last game, resulting in him not cracking 30 points for the first time in five games.
Andrew Wiggins 3+ 3-Pointers (+220, FanDuel)
The Long Distance Launch features a set of circumstances that could push Wiggins to four-plus 3’s, but the return with the above bet is more than OK. The Warriors do not truly have Thompson fully back yet, and Curry has launched at a near unconscious rate while struggling to knock down shots on a consistent basis. Wiggins has turned into a default second option from 3, and bettors should play that tonight against the Bucks perimeter defense. Middleton is not going to keep Wiggins from pulling up, as he has at least five attempts in four of his last six games. One could also push this to four-plus 3-pointers at +670. It is best to play a full unit on the three-plus and a half unit on the four-plus.
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