Low-Priced Value Plays: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks | DraftKings + FanDuel (FREE)

With two weeks in the books, both FanDuel and DraftKings released an array of exciting contests ahead of Week 3. While prices adjusted, a few low-priced value plays stand out in the player pool.

Low-Price Value Plays: DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($6,800 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel)

Far more affordable on DraftKings, Murray enters Week 3 with an egregiously low price. While averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt, Murray continues to excel with his legs. Through his first two games, Murray rushed for 91 and 67 yards respectively. With Arizona running 75.5 plays per game, Murray remains a strong value play on DraftKings.

Looking at the matchup, Arizona faced a struggling Detroit Lions defense this week. The Lions recently placed Justin Coleman on injured reserve and Desmond Trufant missed Week 2 with an injury. With a few other players banged up, the Lions allowed 426 yards to the Bears in Week 1 and 307 to the Packers in Week 2. Producing as a rusher and passer, Murray’s skillset exploits Detroit’s deficiencies in both facets of the game.

With the total sitting at 54.5-points, Murray provides a direct access point to a potential shootout at a low price.

Running Backs

Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel)

In the same game, Drake remains a low-priced value play after failing to capitalize on his early season opportunity. So far, Drake has played on 78 percent of Arizona’s run snaps and averaged 20 opportunities per game. On top of 36 rushing attempts and Arizona targeted Drake four times in the pass game.

While some remain concerned with his role in the pass game, he ran a route on 47 percent of Murray drop backs compared to 37 percent for Chase Edmonds. Still, the ground game remains the key to Drake’s success with Arizona favorited by 5.5-points here. Detroit currently allows the most yards per rush attempt to start the year (6.5).

With a solid matchup on deck and enough volume to pay off his salary, Drake remains a strong value target in Week 3.


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 Miles Sanders ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel)

Making his return to Philadelphia’s lineup in Week 2, Sanders played on 84 percent of Philadelphia’s run snaps. He also handled 20 carries and 7 targets in the pass game. After running a route on 70 percent of Carson Wentz dropbacks, Sanders provides a true bell-cow back at a fraction of the cost.

Heading into Week 3, Philadelphia faces off against the Cincinnati Bengals as six-point favorites. Cincinnati has allowed 5.0 yards per attempt of the ground, boding well for Sanders from an efficiency standpoint. Not to mention, Cincinnati’s 68 plays per game rank near the top of the NFL. In a projected up-tempo matchup, Sanders should flirt with the 20-touch mark again in Week 3.

Priced in the mid-tier, Sanders looks locked in as a low-priced value play in Week 3.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel)

With Christian McCaffrey sidelined for a few weeks, DJ Moore instantly becomes Carolina’s top play-maker. Prior to the McCaffrey injury, Moore received 22 targets, and a 29.7 percent target share. Improving matters further Moore ran a route on 94.2 percent of Teddy Bridgewater’s drop backs, while seeing the fifth-most air yards in the NFL (271).

Looking to week 3, Moore finds himself in a potential shootout against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers enter this game as 6.5-point favorite, pointing to a pass heavy approach from Carolina in negative game script. On top of the potential elevated pass volume, Los Angeles ranks third in plays per game (75).

With extra play volume in negative game script, Moore remains most likely to benefit from McCaffrey’s injury. Still low-priced, Moore remains a bargain across DFS platforms.

Julian Edelman ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel)

With DFS platforms slow to adjust pricing on a week-to-week basis, Edelman enters Week 3 as a strong price-adjusted play. Through three weeks Edelman has 18 targets and a 29.5 percent target share. Edelman has also run a route on 91.3 percent of Cam Newton drop backs. Improving matters further, Newton is finally using Edelman down field, forcing him the ninth-most air yards in the NFL (233).

This week, Edelman finds himself in a sneaky shootout spot against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders’ secondary currently allows 7.9 yards per attempt. Finally putting up some points, the Raiders rank fourth in the NFL in points per game with 34.0. This could keep New England in a pass-heavy game script, while keeping up with a surprisingly efficient Raiders team.

With New England condensing targets to Edelman and N’Keal Harry, Edelman in particular remains a strong value play in a game projected to score 47.5-points.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel)

Through two weeks, Goedert leads Philadelphia with 17 targets and 21% target share. With injuries to Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia continues to employ high rates of 12-personnel. Essentially functioning as a full-time receiver, Goedert ran a route 72.3 percent of Carson Wentz drop backs in Weeks 1 and 2.

With Cincinnati on deck, this game projects to score 46-points. However, Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt to start the year. Philadelphia continues to employ a pass heavy attack and currently passes at the second-highest rate in the NFL (68.4 percent). This includes game neutral situations, where only the New York Giants pass more.

With a potential shootout on deck, Goedert remains a low-priced value play to target in this matchup.


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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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