The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows. Picks in green are for cash or GPP-style contests.
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Top MLB DFS Value Plays
Trevor Bauer – Reds at Brewers – FanDuel $11,400, DraftKings $10,600
Bauer has been phenomenal in each of his first two starts, posting 59 and 52 fantasy points (FanDuel). He’s struck out a combined 20 batters through 13.1 innings while allowing just one earned run. He’s faced the Tigers twice and dominated them both times. This is the Trevor Bauer we’ve become accustomed to, as he looks like the 2018 version of himself. When on the top of his game, Bauer is one of the more prolific strikeout pitchers in baseball, sporting a K/9 over 10.
While the matchup against Milwaukee isn’t as easy, it offers a similar upside, as they struck out 24% of the time in ‘19 and haven’t been very good to start this short year. Bauer has been on his game and could strike out 10 or more with ease here. He’s been allowed to go 100 pitches, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 110 if things go to plan here. Every win is worth a ton this year, and the Reds lean on Bauer big time. He’ll cost you an arm and leg, but he has more upside than any other pitcher
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, D
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: A, C
Matthew Boyd – Tigers at Pirates – FanDuel $7,900, DraftKings $8,900
Boyd hasn’t been great in either of his first two starts, but the price is simply too low for the talent we know is here. He’ll have every opportunity to bounce back against the Pirates, who ranked 23rd against lefties in 2019 while striking out 23% of the time. Assuming Boyd is allowed to be stretched another 10-15 pitches, he could certainly be the top value on this slate.Â
Awesemo projects Boyd as a top-three value pitcher on the slate and one of the top values at any position. The Pirates are far worse against lefties, and they’ve already been terrible to start the season. The price is too low on both sites, and Boyd is a guy I’ll have littered throughout my lineups. If you want someone that’s cheap but still presents upside, give Boyd a whirl. He will allow you to pay up elsewhere while still giving you 40-point upside if on his game.Â
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: B, B
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, D
Griffin Canning – Angels at Rangers – FanDuel $7,200, DraftKings $8,200
Canning hasn’t been amazing in either of his first two starts, but he’s been exactly what you need for the price, and he draws a matchup with a Rangers team that strikes out nearly 24% of the time against right-handers. Canning isn’t going to strike out a batter per inning, but he’s great at preventing runs, and the Rangers will hand him the few strikeouts he needs to reach value. His price is extremely friendly on FanDuel, and he’ll be low-owned with the majority of people paying down going to Weaver. Canning is a solid SP2 on DraftKings and too cheap on FanDuel. I’ll certainly be over the field.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, B
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, C
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Top GPP Target
Luke Weaver – Diamondbacks at Padres – FanDuel $6,600, DraftKings $8,000
Weaver has been absolutely dreadful in his first two starts, posting just 19 total fantasy points in two games. He’ll get another matchup with the Padres on the road here, and it’s a great chance to bounce back and get season on track. There’s no denying the talent in the arm of Weaver, sporting a 3.87 xFIP while holding both lefties and righties to a sub-.268 wOBA. He struck out over a batter per inning and looked like one of the more promising youngsters in the game.Â
His price has come down in a big way on both sites, but the value on FanDuel is insane, and he allows you to do whatever you’d like with the rest of your order. The Padres aren’t an overly weak offense, but they strike out nearly 23% of the time and ranked in the bottom 10 in just about every offensive category a season ago. Weaver is a solid value, but don’t go there outside of a tournament on FanDuel.Â
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, A
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, C
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