DraftKings & FanDuel WNBA DFS Picks: Game one is in the books. Generally speaking, a series like this will have a lot of people game log-watching and best strategy is fading recency bias. Now, while some of the recency bias is legit, there is noise in some of these players stats.
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Connecticut Sun Guards
Courtney Williams had another huge game, scoring 26 points. The only thing that stopped her from smashing was her lack of peripherals in the game, which is unusual for her. With that kind of usage, I would go right back to her. Jasmine Thomas has just been OK for awhile now, but she has not been getting much of a ceiling. I think she is more viable on DraftKings with the looser pricing.
As for Shekinna Stricklen, on FanDuel you hit the lock button and move on as she is the best value play by a mile. Bria Holmes got six minutes, so she is fine if you are starved for value. Layshia Clarendon did not play last game, but if you think she will get some run, she could be an interesting GPP play. Also, I think the Sun losing game one increases the chances of her playing game two.
Connecticut Sun Forwards
Alyssa Thomas broke the slate. Now, one thing we know about Thomas is she is going to play the whole game. But consider this: she shot 70% from the field, got five steals and a block. What are the odds she does that again against a good defensive team like the Mystics? That is why I would fade Thomas.
I want to like Jonquel Jones here, but she played 32 minutes last game and had modest production. I still think you play her just because of the potential, but I do not love it. One reason is I wonder if Morgan Tuck gets more run in game two. She is one of my other favorite value plays. It helps that she is the direct backup to Jones, who frequently gets in foul trouble.
Washington Mystic Guards
Now onto my second fade I am in favor of in this game. Ariel Atkins smashed last game as I thought she might. But in spite of playing well, she still only played 24 minutes. Now, let’s say she plays poorly; that could get cut to 18 to 20 minutes. For a highly variant player I expect to be heavily owned, this is my favorite fade on the slate. I much prefer Natasha Cloud and Kristi Toliver with a lean to Toliver, whose price has still not caught up the minutes she is getting.
Washington Mystic Forwards
Elena Delle Donne is the best player in the series and the best play on the slate. Emma Meesseman is now coming off the bench and only getting 22 to 24 minutes, and she is overpriced for her role. LaToya Sanders has had three bad games in a row, but she is still starting, I like her in GPPs. Aerial Powers only got 10 minutes last game and is just not seeing the time, so the only way I would play her would be in a Mystics blowout.