WNBA DFS Picks: So we have the same four teams squaring off today, one of the things that I think you have to consider in the WNBA playoffs is people will overreact to recency bias. I would suggest if you are running limited entries basically you want to fade the players that had spike games while playing the players that got minutes but just did not have a good game. Additionally, DraftKings has tightened up their pricing as well which makes the intentional zero an interesting gambit over there as well.
Connecticut Sun Guards
If you look at the box scores of last game, there was not a single player on the Sun bench that played more than ten minutes. That means we can expect all the Sun starters to get massive run. Jasmine Thomas popped last game, so I like the idea of pivoting to Courtney Williams if you find the extra money. Shekinna Stricklen is a player I almost never recommend but 27 minutes at a low price is 27 minutes she is in play.
Connecticut Sun Forwards
Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones each had massive games last time out. I prefer Jones, but I also think Thomas has the more exploitable matchup in the series the way the Sparks are defending. If you are playing the embrace the zero, Briona Jones is an interesting GPP as should would probably be in line if either Jones or Thomas gets in foul trouble.
LA Sparks Guards
Chelsea Gray really struggled in the first game, but she is by far my favorite GPP play on the slate, since the minutes are there. This matchup is not particularly difficult. Riqua Williams is also a play I love. She is a cash play on FanDuel at her low salary, she got 28 minutes last game if that continues she will make shots eventually. While Sydney Weise is overpriced for the minutes she will get, Alaina Beard will get 16 minutes and is a value play for someone that wants to embrace the zero with a player that will actually play.
LA Sparks Forwards
Candace Parker spiked a game with 62 fantasy points, but that is the type of player she is. She just has not gotten the minutes due to injury this year. Nneka Ogwumike is still underpriced on FanDuel but the price on DraftKings feels too high. Nneka with a healthy and active Parker engaged is simply not as strong a DFS play.
Las Vegas Aces Guards
Kelsey Plum is a star, she is playing like a star and she is underpriced. On FanDuel, I think you just eat the chalk and play her. On DraftKings, she is an interesting fade and you can just pivot to her teammate Kayla McBride, who also saw all the minutes she could handle last game. If you want a less-owned play, embrace the zero GPP gambit: Tamara Young was awful in the few minutes she played last game, and Sydney Colson was used as Plum’s backup late. Colson is near the minimum on both sites, so she is an intriguing low-owned GPP play.
Las Vegas Forwards
Elizabeth Cambage is a strong play coming off an average game by her standards. Again I do not love the matchup, but I doubt I make a DraftKings lineup without her. Aja Wilson had a big game, but I just feel she is overpriced for this matchup. DeArica Hamby is getting a lot of minutes, but probably not enough for her price. Remember what I wrote about Jsu Park last time out. She was in the FanDuel winning lineup, and I like her again for the same reasons.
Washington Mystics Guards
Kristi Toliver came back last game and really provided a fly in the ointment for the Mystics guards with her 22 minutes. Toliver is overpriced for still being on a minutes limit, but Natasha Cloud is also priced too high. When Toliver is on the court she takes over the offense. Aerial Atkins still played 27 minutes last game. If I am playing a Mystics guard in a GPP she would be my choice.
Washington Mystics Forwards
Emma Messeman exploded last game for 50 fantasy points, so she is probably my favorite recency bias fade. I doubt she shoots 80% again. One of the reasons was Vegas centered their defense on guarding Elena Delle Donne. I do not care because I hope people are off Delle Donne, since she is the number one play on the slate for me. LaToya Sanders, as always, is underpriced on FanDuel for her role. With DraftKings’ tighter pricing, she is in play over there. Aerial Powers only played nine minutes last game. With Toliver back, she is out of play.
One note about lineup building: I think it is very possible that the Mystics blow out the Aces here, so constructing a lineup around that possibility is a viable GPP strategy.