Welcome back to another night of CBB DFS fun! This Monday slate is a fun one with three or four games, depending on what site you play. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out @VarneyDFS. Let’s dig in and take down this CBB DFS slate!
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Games and Lines
Rice @ North Texas (-13) – 137 – DraftKings Only
Oklahoma @ Baylor (-10.5) – 136
Texas @ West Virginia (-9) – 128
N.C. State @ Virginia (-4.5) – 117.5
FanDuel and DraftKings CBB DFS TargetsÂ
Guards
Jared Butler – Baylor – FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $7,300
We’re not working with any extremely high totals on tonight’s slate, so we have to dig in and find some strong individual matchups to take advantage of. Jared Butler is my highest raw projected player on the slate, facing off with an Oklahoma team that struggles defensively and plays fast. Baylor jumped Gonzaga and are now ranked the No. 1 team in the country, meaning Butler is currently the best player on the best team. The Baylor superstar shooting guard is up to 15.2 points per game with 3.2 assists and 3.0 rebounds. Facing a fast-paced Oklahoma team that averages three more possessions than the Baylor Bears, Butler is going to be allowed to play at his ideal style and the Sooners don’t have anyone to slow him down.
Butler thrives in the open floor and he creates a mismatch for nearly every team he faces. Six-foot-five Austin Reaves will matchup with Butler, and he has no chance of staying with his speed. This Oklahoma-Baylor game is the highest projected total on FanDuel and second (by just one point) on DraftKings. Baylor is a 10.5-point favorite, so Vegas is expecting the Bears to get into the 70s. They’re the only team on the slate with an implied total over 70. Butler has been over 33 DraftKings points in three straight games and his upside has been over 25%. His price is fair on both sites and he’s the top guard option in all formats. I will have 100% Butler and would recommend you do as well.
Javion Hamlet – North Texas – DraftKings $7,000
If you’re playing over on DraftKings, Javion Hamlet is a lock and load at guard, even to a higher degree than Butler is. North Texas plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 340th in the country with just 66 possessions per game. Tonight, they face off with a Rice team that plays extremely fast and sits 43rd in the NCAA with nearly 75 possessions per game. The Mean Green are still expected to win by double digits, and the offense is going to have a chance to stretch out a bit. Hamlet already finds a way to average 25-plus fantasy points in slow-paced games, so the upside here is huge.
We rarely get to target North Texas, which is disappointing as they have some very strong talent. They play a defensive brand of basketball and don’t see many possessions. Tonight will be one of the few times that the Mean Green have true upside and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hamlet drops 40 DraftKings points. This team is champing at the bit to play some offense and Hamlet leads the way.
Kihei Clark – Virginia – FanDuel $6,500 DraftKings $6,600
You don’t want to target Virginia all that often. Out of 353 teams, they rank dead last in possessions per game at just 62.2. You want to get your exposure to the Cavaliers when facing off with a fast-paced team, and that’s exactly what is going on tonight. Virginia will undoubtedly slow North Carolina State down, but the Wolfpack will also get the Cavs to run a bit, as they rank 86th in the country in pace. Kihei Clark is the man at point guard for Virginia, and he’s averaged 38.8 minutes per game over the last 10.
The Cavs are just slight 4.5-point favorites here, so they’ll need Clark to win this game. The point guard stuffs the stat sheet, averaging 11 points on top of six assists and three boards a game. North Carolina State plays at an ideal pace for Clark and this is one of the best matchups he will see all season. He’s an easy play in all formats, while teammate Braxton Key is better served in tournaments.
Matt Coleman II – Texas – FanDuel $6,000 DraftKings $6,900
Courtney Ramey has been a bit more up and down for the Longhorns while Matt Coleman has been Mr. Consistent. The Longhorns play at one of the slowest paces in the country, so a matchup with the relatively fast-paced Mountaineers is a good one for these guards. Coleman is not only the 3-point specialist (45%) for Texas, but he does it all (12 points, 4.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds). You especially want to target Coleman when Texas is getting up in pace as he lives off peripherals finding open 3s. They come much easier in transition than they do in a half court set. Coleman is affordable on both sites and his ownership shouldn’t be very high with Ramey drawing plenty of attention. I certainly prefer Coleman in cash games, but Ramey has shown a ton of CBB DFS upside this year and he’s the better GPP play.
Tomas Woldetensae – Virginia – FanDuel $3,600 DraftKings $4,000
The Cavaliers sixth man has been playing more than ever this season and his price is yet to catch up. He’s been at 32 minutes in each of the last two games and eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in both. Virginia now faces off with an speedy North Carolina State team that’s going to give up a ton of peripheral stats. Woldetensae can shoot the 3, but he lives off racking up the rebounds and assists. He’s a bit of a glue guy for a Virginia team that can sometimes be stagnant offensively. Expect another 30-plus minutes from Woldetensae for $4,000 or less on both sites. He’s going to be involved heavily in this game and does have the upside as he can get hot from beyond the arc. There are a ton of guys to pay up for on this CBB DFS slate and you need the value.
Also Consider – Austin Reaves (OU), Umoja Gibson (NTEX), Courtney Ramey (TEX), Miles McBride (WVU)
Forwards
Jericho Sims – Texas – FanDuel $6,400 DraftKings $6,700
There are quite a few expensive forward options to pay up for, but you get a healthy discount with my favorite of the bunch. Jericho Sims leads Texas and he has been excellent of late, getting to 30 DraftKings points in five of his last seven. Sims scored a season-high 20 points last game, but has been scoring more than ever of late and his usage has risen over 25%. Sims averages eight rebounds on top of it all, but picked up 15 in back-to-back games last week and this matchup with West Virginia is another great one for him.
The presence of Oscar Tshiebwe and Derek Culver will require big minutes out of Sims and West Virginia has been taken advantage of in the paint this season. The two superstars are great offensively, but they take a lot of chances on defense and the Mountaineers play fast. Sims is my favorite forward price considered on both sites as I see him over 30 fantasy points with ease. The CBB DFS upside is there if he can get into another rebounding groove.
Mamadi Diakite – Virginia – FanDuel $6,200 DraftKings $7,300
You have to love Mamadi Diakite when Virginia is facing a fast-paced team. Teams that play fast, including North Carolina State, are smaller and it leads to Diakite dominating the boards and picking up three or four blocks along the way. He’s been playing more minutes than ever before, averaging 34 minutes over the last three games. The Wolfpack butter their bread at guard. D.J. Funderburk and Manny Bates have some upside offensively, but neither has a chance of contain Diakite.
His upside is there without the corresponding 40-fantasy-point games, but that comes down to the dreadful pace of play Virginia forces games into. There is a good chance this game turns fast and Diakite would finally have some upside in that case. Either way, his price is down and the matchup has a floor of 25 fantasy points. On FanDuel, the price is just silly and you can lock him in across the board. Ownership will likely be above 50%, but you’re playing with a weak deck if you fade Diakite at just $6,200 in CBB DFS.
Freddie Gillespie – Baylor – FanDuel $6,900 DraftKings $7,500
Freddie Gillespie is my favorite way to pay up if I’m getting exposure to the uber-expensive options at forward. We touched on Butler at guard and Gillespie is in play for a lot of the same reasons. Baylor, who is now ranked No. 1 in the country, will be facing an Oklahoma team that is going to push the pace constantly. Gillespie will be needed to defend Brady Manek and Khristian Doolittle, so expect his 27-minute average to be shattered here. He’s been up to 36 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see somewhere around there tonight if the game stays competitive.
Gillespie thrives in the open floor and he’s going to demolish these Oklahoma bigs down low. Gillespie is averaging nine points, nine rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game while sitting around 35 fantasy points when everything clicks. He also yet to have a game where he scores and rebounds 15, but seems to do both independently quite often. One of these games is going to be a breakout and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the one. Oklahoma is a good enough team to stay with Baylor and they play at a speed that forces Gillespie to show off his skills. I’ll take Gillespie over either of the Oklahoma bigs for CBB DFS.
Oscar Tshiebwe – West Virginia – FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $7,400
Only consider Oscar Tshiebwe in tournaments, as the odds of him disappearing are just as high as him going for 40-plus fantasy points. Tshiebwe has immense upside, seeing he’s been over 17 rebounds four times this year and averages nearly two blocks. He’s one of the most athletic big men in the country and it all comes down to how involved he can get early. If Tshiebwe gets a few early buckets, you’re looking at a minimum of 30 fantasy points.they will need his size against Sims and I think Culver may see the better defense of the two. I’m a big fan of Tshiebwe in tournaments as he’s underpriced and nobody in his range has the same ceiling. There are a few extremely underpriced forwards on FanDuel, which should make cash game construction pretty easy.
Thomas Bell – North Texas – DraftKings $5,100
This is another Mean Green player, so DraftKings only. On FanDuel, the value is there in the superstars, so you definitely shouldn’t be reaching at forward. On DraftKings, however, the suds are a bit more expensive and Thomas Bell is a great option at $5,100. While Deng Geu gets the attention, Bell averages the most minutes per game of any North Texas forward at 25.5. Bell is an athletic forward that fits the Mean Green scheme of mistake-free basketball.
He also will look amazing when running the floor against Rice. He’s the perfect forward to play in transition as he’s only 6-foot-6, but slams like a seven-footer and has gotten into double-digit rebounds previously this year. The upside is in the 30s with a floor in the 20s and that’s a deal I’ll take all day for just over $5,000. Geu is worth consideration in tournaments, but he just doesn’t play enough minutes to get me excited for his CBB DFS value.
Also Consider – Brady Manek (OU), Braxton Key (UVA), Manny Bates (NCST), Drew Peterson (RICE) DraftKings
