College basketball season is finally upon us, and DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for CBB DFS grinders. Examining the slate for Feb. 27, a number of core plays stand out. In this piece I’ll be locating top plays from each college basketball matchup and determining the top CBB DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
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Studs Tier
Moses Moody ($7,800) – One of the most unique slates of the year, Ayo Dosumnu and Sharife Cooper are both expected to miss today’s games. With the two top projected players off of the slate, looking at a few less expensive studs makes sense. In the top game environment on the slate, Arkansas remains five-point favorites over LSU in a game totaled at 161.5 points. This give Arkansas the top implied team total on the slate by almost five points. Narrowing the rotation of late, Moody, Jalen Tate ($6,300), and Justin Smith ($7,600) all make varying degrees of sense. However, with an abundance of value on the slate, paying up for the usage leader in Moody provides immense upside. Moody has played 39 and 37 minutes in back-to-back games. He has a 17.1% usage rate, consisting of an 18.4% shot rate, 14.7% rebound rate, and 15.6% assist rate. LSU ranks 219th in defensive efficiency, creating the ideal game environment for all Arkansas players.
James Bouknight ($7,700) – A middling game environment overall, UConn sits as seven-point favorites over Marquette in a game totaled at 135.5 points. UConn plays slow basketball with the 96th ranked offensive efficiency in the country. However, this number has risen with the return of stud Bouknight. Bouknight has played at least 34 minutes in back-to-back games and holds a 21.4% usage rate this year. He accounts for 25.7% of the shots, 21.1% of the rebounds, and 12.5% of the assist in UConn’s last three games. Marquette ranks 277th in three-point defense as well. Bouknight ranks third on the team in 3-point attempts despite missing the better part of a month with an elbow injury.
Cameron Thomas ($7,100) – On the other side of the Arkansas game, LSU still holds a top three implied team total on this slate with the up-tempo game environment and immense 161.5-point total. On of the cheapest studs on the slate, Thomas holds a 24% usage rate and averages 32.3 minutes per game. Thomas accounts for 27.5% of LSU’s shots and 11.3% of their assists this year. Thomas has scored at least 21 point in each of LSU’s last three games. Arkansas plays solid defense overall, but Thomas’ enormous shot rate gives him plenty of upside in a phenomenal game environment.
Mid-Priced Tier
Allen Flanigan ($6,900) – Without Cooper, Auburn’s entire starting five enters the Saturday DFS slate underpriced. Auburn currently sits as 7.5-point underdogs in a game totaled at 144.5-points against a strong Tennessee defense. However, Flanigan has now played 35 minutes in each of Auburn’s last two games. He holds a 14.9% usage rate on the year, but he now accounts for a 16.8% shot rate, 15.9% rebound rate, and 27.3% assist rate in Auburn’s last three. Prior to their most recent game against Vanderbilt, Tennessee had given up at least 70 points in five straight games. With the Volunteer’s defense showing cracks, Flanigan deserves a look in the mid-priced range on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Isaiah Livers ($6,700) – Leaders of the Big Ten, Michigan enters the DFS slate holding an 8.5-point advantage over Indiana in a game totaled at 138.5 points. Michigan’s top three studs Hunter Dickinson ($7,700), Franz Wagner ($7,500), and Livers all deserve consideration here. Dickinson often struggles to find minutes and Wagner remains $800 more than Livers for a similar usage rate. Livers holds a 16% usage rate, while Wagner’s sits at 16.2%. On the year, Livers holds a 17.5% shot rate, 15.2% rebound rate, and 13.8% assist rate. Livers has played at least 34 minutes in three straight games, giving him consistency at a cheaper price in this matchup.
Andre Curbelo ($5,700) – Without Dosumnu, Illinois sits as four-point underdogs to Wisconsin in a game totaled at 136.5 points. However, the Illini provide a number of value plays in this contest and Curbelo stands out. Curbelo didn’t start Illinois’ last game, but he played 31 minutes off the bench without Dosunmu. Curbelo notched a double-double, featuring 10 points, 12 boards and even eight assists. Curbelo holds a 17.8% usage rate on the season and should continue to see elevated minutes as long as Dosunmu misses time.
Value Tier
Terrence Shannon Jr. ($4,800) – Texas Tech faces Texas today as 3.5-point favorites with a 136 game total. Texas Tech narrowed their rotation last time they took the floor, giving Shannon 38 minutes. Shannon had been nursing an injury, so his involvement bodes positively for more minutes moving forward. Shannon didn’t start and Peavy also committed four fouls in that game. Risk remains, but Shannon played well in his elevated role with 18 points and solid peripheral numbers. With a 17.5% usage rate on the year, Shannon deserves consideration as a value punt here on DraftKings and FanDuel.
KJ Buffen ($4,800) – A middling game environment, Ole Miss sits as eight-point favorites over Vanderbilt in a game totaled at 134-points. Vanderbilt ranks 254 in defensive efficiency and they recently lost Dylan Disu for the year. Starting for Ole Miss, Buffen has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games after a mid-season slump. More of a peripheral player, Buffen accounts for an 11.7% shot rate, 16.9% rebound rate, and 20.7% assist rate in Ole Miss’ last three games. He and Romello White ($4,500) look like strong value plays in the offense.
Jamal Johnson ($4,800) – For those looking at cheaper options on the Auburn offense, Johnson entered the starting lineup in place of Cooper in the Tiger’s most recent game. Johnson played 31 minutes, scored 10 points, and delivered solid peripheral statistics. On the year, Johnson holds a 15.2% usage rate, which includes a 13.4% shot rate. Now expected to play an elevated role against Tennessee in a solid game environment, Johnson holds sleeper appeal in the value range.
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