March Madness is finally here, and DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for CBB DFS grinders. Examining the slate for the first round on DraftKings, and FanDuel a number of core plays stand out. In this piece I’ll be locating top plays from each college basketball matchup and determining the top CBB DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel | March Madness
Stud Tier
Evan Mobley ($9,500) – One of the slate’s premier studs, Mobley makes his tournament debut for a USC team favored by six points over Drake in a game totaled at 135.5 points. Drake plays slow, defensively sound basketball. However, they play with very little size outside of Darnell Brodie (6-foot-10), but Brodie only averages 22.9 minutes per game. Mobley is a seven-foot future lottery pick in the NBA, averaging 16.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. In USC’s last three games, Mobley’s minutes also spiked to at least 37 per contest. Now handling 24.2% of the shots, 30.2% of the rebounds and 22.6% of the assists in USC’s last three, Mobley looks like the top pay-up option given Drake’s 167th-ranked defense in the interior.
Isaiah Miller ($9,000) – Unlike some underdogs on this slate, UNC-Greensboro actually possesses a usable 67-point team total as 11-point underdogs to Florida State. For DFS purposes, this game holds an above average 145 total and two teams that play at an above-average pace. UNC-Greensboro holds particular intrigue with Miller’s enormous 26.3% usage rate. Miller has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games, with upside for more against elite competition. He accounts for 29.6% of the team’s shots, 25.3% of the rebounds, and 38.2% of the assists in UNC-Greensboro’s last three games. After a hot start to the year, Florida State’s defense has weakened. At this point, they rank 48th in defensive efficiency, but gave up over 70 points in 10 of 15 conference games this season.
Cameron Thomas ($7,900) – With three legitimate studs in Trendon Watford ($8,700), Javonte Smart ($7,100), and Thomas, it is a bit surprising that LSU enters this game as just a 1.5-point favorite. However the total sits at 143 overall, giving the studs some intrigue. In particular, Thomas looks underpriced in this spot after Watford had the enormous game in the SEC Championship. However, Watford easily leads the team with a 24.9% usage rate this season and has played at least 39 minutes in three straight games. Thomas accounts for a 25.9% shot rate and 18.8% assist rate in LSU’s last three games, giving him a solid ceiling/floor combination in this spot.
Alex Barcell0 ($7,200) – Another team just drawing their opponent, BYU faces off against UCLA as a 4.5-point favorite in a game totaled at 138.5-points. After averaging 31.8 minutes per game in the regular season, Barcello saw his minutes spike to 40 and 34 in BYU’s two most recent games. Barcello leads this team with an 18.8% usage rate, while shooting an absurd 49% from three this season. UCLA ranks 192 in terms of defense, but 242nd against 3-point shots. UCLA could also be without the services of Johnny Juzang, who went down with an ankle injury late in UCLA’s play-in game against Michigan State.
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Mid-Priced Tier
Dru Smith ($6,900) – After a poor showing in the SEC tournament, Missouri saw its priced reduced in this matchup against Oklahoma. Missouri currently sits as a one-point underdog in a game with a 140.5-point total. Smith has played 38 minutes in back-to-back games for Missouri with a solid 16.5% usage rate. While the fantasy totals haven’t been elite, Smith is still playing a massive role for Missouri. In their last three, he has taken 17.2% of the shots, 10% of the rebounds, and 30.6% of the teams assists. Oklahoma will also miss stud guard De’Vion Harmon, further strengthening the matchup here.
Jaren Holmes ($6,400) – On the other side of the LSU game, St Bonaventure holds a solid 70.75-point implied team total as 1.5-point underdogs. St Bonaventure also draws a pace-up spot against an LSU team that averages 74.4 possessions per game. Among this tight starting rotation, Holmes remains underpriced. Homes ranks second on the team with a 17.1% usage rate and has played 36 and 40 minutes in back-to-back games. Holmes also shows involvement everywhere on the floor. He accounts for a 21.7% shot rate, 14.3% rebound rate, and 17.4% assist rate in St Bonaventure’s last three games. With a similar usage rate to Kyle Lofton ($7,500), but offer $1k in savings, Holmes remains a strong mid-priced option here for FanDuel and DraftKings lineups.
Ben Vander Plas ($6,200) – An interesting stylistic mismatch, Ohio draws Virginia in the first round as seven-point underdogs in a game with a 131-point total. Ohio typically plays with incredible pace, while Virginia notoriously attempts to slow the pace. Even with a modest team total (61.75), Ohio holds intrigue with a narrow distribution of minutes. Outside of stud Jalen Preston, Vander Plas has also played at least 37 minutes in three straight games for Ohio. Vander Plas holds a 17.1% usage rate this season, while providing consistency across statistical categories. Vander Plas accounts for a 20.4% shot rate, 15.3% rebound rate, and 30% assist rate in Ohio’s last three games. Virginia’s main defensive weakness comes against three-point shots, where they rank 183rd on defense. Vander Plas shoots 36% from three, directly exploiting this weakness.
John Petty Jr. ($6,100) – One of the best game environments on the slate, Alabama sits as a 17-point favorites over Iona in a game with a 147.5-point total. While there is some risk of removing starters in the second half, Petty comes with a price that is too good to pass up. Petty averages 30.9 minutes per game for Alabama, along with 12.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per contest. In Alabama’s last three he hasn’t been as involved accounting for just 16.9% of the shots, 15.2% of the rebounds and 14.3% of the assists. However, Petty’s season-long number remain strong, making him a solid buy-low CBB DFS pick. In this game environment, he stands out as a solid price-adjusted play on DraftKings and FanDuel.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”NCAAB” date=”03/20/2021″ team=”jayhawks”]
Value Tier
Mitch Lightfoot ($4,800) – Kansas enters this contest after exiting the Big 12 tournament due to a COVID-19 scare. Ahead of this game, Jalen Wilson will not play, but David McCormack expects to make his return. According to the coaching staff, McCormack isn’t expected to play his full role, opening significant minutes in the front court for Kansas. With Tristan Enaruna also out, Lightfoot and Tyon Grant-Foster are expected to play a larger role. Lightfoot has played more minutes throughout the season and has at least 11 in each of Kansas’ last three games. His 12.9% usage rate leaves much to be desired, but Lightfoot stands 6-foot-8 and literally provides the only size this team has. With a massive implied team total, Lightfoot provides much needed value on both the DraftKings and FanDuel slate.
Michael Meadows ($4,600) – On the other side of the Kansas matchup, Eastern Washington sits with a usable 68.25-point implied team total in a game totaled at 147-points. Eastern Washington still remains a 10.5-point underdog, but the utilize a narrow rotation here. For value plays, Jacob Groves ($4,700) and Meadows have both played over 30 minutes in competitive games this season. Meadows holds a slightly higher usage rate (14.3%) and holds better rates in Eastern Washington’s last three games. He accounts for a 15% shot rate, 10.5% rebound rate, and 14.3% assist rate. The consistent minutes and involvement across statistical categories make Meadows great value as a CBB DFS pick.
Umoja Gibson ($4,500) – Oklahoma enters their first round matchup against Missouri shorthanded with De’Vion Harmon sitting due to Covid-19 protocols. With his absence, the Vegas line only moved one point, making Oklahoma a one-point favorite over Missouri in a game totaled at 140.5-points. Fortunately, Oklahoma battled Covid-19 at numerous times this season, allowing the team to cultivate depth. When Austin Reaves previously missed games, Elijah Harkless ($6,800) and Gibson stepped up in a major way. Gibson in particular brings an attractive price tag and a 13.9% usage rate. Gibson already played between 25-32 minutes in Oklahoma’s last three games with Harmon present. Looking back to Reaves’ previous absence, Gibson’s minutes shot well-above 30 with an increased usage rate. The same looks likely to happen here against a Missouri team that ranks 156th in defensive efficiency and lost six of their last nine games.
Oscar Frayer ($3,800) – For those looking at pure salary-saving options, Grand Canyon enters the Saturday DFS slate with a number of attractive prices. The problem is that the Antelopes remain 14-point underdogs to Iowa in a game totaled at 145-points. Despite the step up in competition, Grand Canyon could provide value. Grand Canyon has won each of their last three games by at least double-digits, skewing their offensive rotation. Frayer averages just over 22 minutes per game in this offense, but he continues to start and see increased playing time in competitive spots. Frayer possesses a 13% usage rate, but actually showed increased involvement of late. He accounts for a 12.7% shot rate and 16% assist rate in Grand Canyon’s last three contests. For those taking a pure stars and scrubs approach, Frayer could be the key value piece for DraftKings and FanDuel.
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