With the NCAA Tournament making its return after a two-year break, DraftKings is hosting a survivor pool with $1 million dollars guaranteed up top. Unlike other tournaments on DraftKings, this survivor pool features a few wrinkles. Each participant will pick one team to win per day until the Elite Eight through the championship. At that point, participants will pick one team per round. Each team can only be used once and if a participant runs out of available teams, they will be eliminated. The last person standing takes down $1 million, but this tournament has 134,478 total entries. Taking the GPP mindset, here are a few strategies to consider throughout this March Madness Survivor Pool.
[MARCHMADNESS]
March Madness NCAA Tournament DraftKings Survivor Pool Strategy
Betting Odds
Intuitively teams with higher seeds stand more of a chance at a deeper run in the tournament. Saving these teams for later use makes sense, with the NCAA tournament featuring high levels of volatility. With that said, using Vegas odds to exploit teams with similar seedings provides a solid edge in the early rounds. For example, three seeds like Texas and Arkansas have 8.5-point spread advantages over their first-round opponents. Meanwhile, teams with lower seeds like Creighton (No. 5 seed) have similar advantages with potentially less ownership.
On Day 1 of the tournament, a team like Tennessee (No. 7 seed) has a 7.5-point advantage over Oregon State, while Villanova (No. 5 seed), Oklahoma State (No. 4 seed), and Purdue (No. 4 seed) are between 6.5- and 7.5-point favorites over their first-round draws. Betting odds should be a key component when making survivor pool decisions on DraftKings.
Forward Thinking
Because each team can only be used once, this type of survivor pool rewards forward thinking. Certain teams will draw easier second-round matchups than others, making them better served for later use. For example, Houston enters the tournament as a No. 2 seed and almost certainly will advance as a 20.5-point favorite over Cleveland State. Rather than use the Cougars in Round 1, the best strategy may be waiting for second-round matchup against a weaker opponent.
Using Houston as an example, the Cougars received one of the more favorable draws in the tournament. Aside from a cupcake matchup against Cleveland State, Houston will take on the winner of Rutgers and Clemson. They are likely to approach double-digit favorites, so this is a primary example of thinking forward in these tournaments. Rather than use Houston immediately, taking a wait-and-see approach could help in the early rounds.
Conversely, teams like Creighton face tougher opponents early on. Creighton specifically deserves early consideration with a potential Gonzaga matchup down the road. Even a team like Iowa may be used early. The Hawkeyes rank 229th in 3-point defense and potentially face an Oregon team with five starters that all shoot at least 37% from 3. While upsets and the typical madness will occur, this strategy can help reduce some of the variance throughout the survivor pool.
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For those of you that outlast the numerous upsets, busts and other unpredictable outcomes, embracing a contrarian strategy near the end can have immense payoffs. By the time the final rounds arrive, each person will be dealing with a limited pool of teams. Using the same Vegas odds, certain teams will surge in popularity in the final rounds. Simply picking a contrarian team or game at those points could lead to exponential payoffs.
For example, say each No. 1 seed makes the final four. Gonzaga potentially has a larger spread over an Isaiah Livers-less Michigan team, compared to Illinois against Baylor. With most of the remaining participants expected to take Gonzaga and secure a spot at $1 million, taking Michigan could prove advantageous. While less likely, when Michigan wins that matchup, the people competing for the $1 million drop sharply. March Madness survivor embraces volatility, and taking a contrarian approach after surviving the initial rounds makes sense.
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