Week 11 is here and this starts the real push to the playoff. The first rankings were unveiled and although it means nothing now teams have an idea of where they stand. We have maybe the best week of the year in terms of matchups as Alabama and LSU is probably the game of the year. In addition there are plenty of other big spots to breakdown and look into. Let’s get into some weekly college football betting picks for week 11, with a few odds, spreads and lines for all your CFB betting needs.
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There is a full DFS slate to breakdown so make sure to check out the DFS Week 11 College Football article where we will talk about some individual players that you may want to roster on Saturday. This article is going to focus on a few games from a betting perspective and where I am leaning in the betting market.
Western Kentucky at Arkansas -1
The Hilltoppers sit at 5-4 on the season, and considering they opened the year with a loss to Central Arkansas it’s probably not the worst record. They really don’t stand out in many ways and on the season they are only averaging 22 points per game. The QB play hasn’t produced much as Ty Storey comes into the game with a 7 TD 5 INT line after taking over after WKU’s starter went down via injury.
For them to hang in this game they need to limit turnovers and lean on their defense which has been impressive so far this season. They defend the pass well and going against an Arkansas team that has a bunch of problems of its own could present them an opportunity to grab another win.
This team is the SEC whipping boy as they haven’t won a conference game and sit at just 2-7 on the season. You wonder where the team is at as they come into this game having dropped six straight games, with the last three all being beatdowns. Its to be expected considering the caliber of teams they are facing and Arkansas just doesn’t have the personnel to compete with the likes of Auburn and Alabama.
The Razorbacks have decided to shake it up and move to freshman QB John Jones who is actually Jerry Jones’ grandson. The offense is in desperate need of a spark and this is a good time to make the move considering Western Kentucky isn’t near the opponents Arkansas is usually facing this time of year. Its hard to breakdown these teams because of the glaring gap in competition, but Arkansas is where I lean. The QB change can only help and this is a Western Kentucky team that they should dominate upfront on both sides of the ball which will be the difference in this one.
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My Pick: Arkansas -1
Wyoming at Boise -13.5
A game out in the Mountain West that isn’t making much noise on a national level, but is super important within the conference. Wyoming goes to the blue turf in Boise to try and knock off the 22nd ranked Broncos.
Wyoming is 6-2 on the year and are always a tough team to deal with. They run the ball a lot and that shortens games and keep their defense off the field. Unfortunately for them dual threat QB Sean Chambers suffered a season ending injury last week, and now they must turn to their backup. Its not all bad as he does have starting experience from last year, but no doubt this is a major downgrade to the offense.
Defensively this is a funnel team as they are one of the worst in the country against the pass, but a top unit at stopping the run. They are giving up 300 yards passing per game, which is 122nd in the entire country. On the ground they are holding teams to under 3 yards per rush which is one of the top marks in the entire country. They are going to need to find ways to slow this Boise passing if they have any hope to hang in this one.
Boise St once again is the team to beat in the Mountain West and as usual are one of the best teams outside the power 5 schools. They have only one loss on the year in a close game at BYU a few weeks back. They have the ability to control games thru the air as well as on the ground and they will certainly test this Wyoming defense. Lately they’ve been clicking having scored 50+ in two of the last three games and there is no way the Cowboys can keep pace in that type of game script.
Boise State is the class of the Mountain West and they have everything you could ask for heading into a crucial game. They are facing a backup QB at home where they are always incredibly difficult to beat. If they are able to stop the run and force Wyoming into playing catch-up this is a spot Boise could make a statement with a landslide victory.
My Pick: Boise St -13.5
Iowa St at Oklahoma -14 (-115), O/U 67.5
Middle of the road Big 12 team in the Cyclones as they sit at 5-3 on the season. This team actually went into Norman two years ago and escaped with a monumental upset, but that’s going to be tough to replicate. QB Brock Purdy can make plays and he has several running backs that can help take the pressure off what is almost certainly going to need to be a huge offensive output.
Iowa State is going to have trouble slowing Oklahoma’s offense down, which isn’t unique to them. They don’t have a major issue on defense, but again they haven’t seen many offenses like this one. They are coming off a game where they gave up 34 points to Oklahoma State at home and a lot of that was due to turnovers. Purdy threw three picks and that has to be a top priority if they want to hang in on the road.
Oklahoma got a week off and it probably came at a good time after they were upset in Week 9 at Kansas St. The Sooners came into that game firmly in the playoff hunt and as a massive favorite and left Manhattan now on life support. They are going to need to impress the committee as much as possible, while hoping some of these teams ahead of them slip up and add a few losses to their resumes.
The process of getting back in the playoff hunt starts now as there is no reason they shouldn’t take care of business at home vs a team like Iowa State. Jalen Hurts is still a Heisman caliber player and he has more than enough weapons to cause massive problems for this defense. I expect Oklahoma to shake off what was a pathetic effort two weeks ago and get back on track with a easy victory back at home in Norman.
My Pick: Oklahoma -14 (-115)
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Good Luck everyone!