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College Football DFS: Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Tuesday, 11/2/2021

Matt Gajewski



DraftKings CFB DFS College Football Picks optimizer lineup optimal picks this week 12 Justin Hall Ball State tonight today free expert projections ownership rankings

Week 10 action kicks off with a Tuesday three-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 10 CFB DFS picks for Tuesday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 10 Tuesday CFB Picks

Ball State vs. Akron

Ball State (38.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.4 (87th)

Pass Rate – 53.03% (27th)

Ball State enters this game with a 4-4 record and a 2-2 record in conference. They lost to Penn State and Wyoming in non-conference in addition to Toledo and Miami Ohio within the MAC. The losses occurred by ten and seven points. Their two victories came against Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Interestingly, Ball State is playing completely different than last year. Their plays per game have dropped from 80.6 to 68.4, but their pass rate has increased from 43.3% to 53.0%.

Drew Plitt ($7,100) is the veteran quarterback for Ball State. He averages 198.6 yards passing per game on 29.9 attempts. Plitt currently completes 64.5% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt. Both numbers are below last year’s marks pointing to potential positive regression. Plitt is somewhat mobile, with 58 cumulative yards on the year. However, he benefits primarily from the pass heavy nature of this offense and a poor Akron defense on the other side.

In the run game, Ball State has used a committee consisting of Carson Steele ($6,000) and Will Jones ($4,100). Steele has been more efficient, averaging 60.6 yards per game on 11.1 touches to 43.5 yards per game on 10.6 touches for Jones. Fortunately, Akron’s defense allows 244.4 yards rushing per game, putting both Steele and Jones squarely into play. Ball State has a 38.5 implied total, so taking one of these pieces is a sharp move.

At receiver, Ball State has a narrow target distribution among their top three pass catchers. Justin Hall ($8,100) leads the team with 62.4 yards per game on 7.9 targets. However, he is also extremely active in the run game with carry counts of five and four in Ball State’s last two games. Jayshon Jackson ($6,100) has emerged as a legitimate WR2 behind Hall. He averages 60 yards per game on seven targets. Meanwhile, veteran Yo’Heinz Tyler ($5,300) averages 39.1 yards per game on 6.8 targets. However, this opportunity has recently spiked. Tyler averages 8.3 targets per game over Ball State’s last four game, which paces the team. Cody Rudy ($3,400) ranks fourth on the team with 20 targets, but he is also incorrectly labeled as a tight end on DraftKings. He is only a target in the largest of GPPs.

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Akron (19 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 72.9 (37th)

Pass Rate – 48.24% (63rd)

One of the worst teams in college football, Akron has already picked up a pair of wins this year. They defeated Bryant in non-conference and Bowling Green by 15 points. They also lost to Ohio, Miami Ohio and Buffalo. With new quarterback play this year, Akron has increased both their pass rate and pace.

After missing a pair of games, D.J. Irons ($5,000) returned to starting action in Akron’s most recent game. Irons has been serviceable this year, completing 65.5% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. However, he is extremely athletic with 305 cumulative yards rushing. Zach Gibson ($5,000) replaced Irons towards the end of their most recent game. He has been better as a passer with a 69.2% completion percentage for 7.9 yards per attempt. Irons has not shown much upside outside of his game against Bryant. Outside of that, he has not eclipsed 129 yards passing in a game. Only his mobility props him up. Either way, there is a strong chance both Akron quarterbacks play, making him a pure dart throw situation in the largest of GPPs.

The Akron run game has been a fluid situation all year. Blake Hester ($3,300) looked like the preferred ball carrier for a stretch of time with Anthony Williams ($3,100) playing a change of pace role. However, Jonzell Norrils ($5,300) popped up to lead the team in carries last week. Norrils has been efficient overall, averaging 52.8 yards per game on 10.7 touches. However, Hester and Williams average 10.1 and 8.3 touches per game themselves. There is a possibility Norrils emerges as the feature back, making him viable in GPPs. However, there is also a change this is a three back rotation on an offense implied for 19 points. For what it is worth, Ball State allows 171 yards rushing per game.

Akron’s top receiver this year has been Konata Mumpfield ($7,200). Mumpfield averages 61.9 yards per game on 7.8 targets. However, slot receiver Michael Mathison ($5,100) is not too far behind. Mathison averages 50.8 yards per game on 6.9 targets and continues to play a large role in this offense. The third starter was George Qualls ($3,500), who left early in Week 7 and missed Week 8. Qualls ranks fourth on the team in targets overall. In his place, Andre Williams ($3,400) received the start and plays a significant number of snaps. Williams now has seven combined targets in Akron’s last two game without Qualls. At tight end Tristian Brank ($3,800) still ranks third on the team in targets, despite only averaging 2.4 per game. Tony Grimes ($3,200) will occasionally mix in, but Williams is cheap enough to ignore Grimes here outside of massive GPPs. Mathison and Williams are the top price-adjusted plays here.

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Miami Ohio vs. Ohio

Miami Ohio (29.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 66 (106th)

Pass Rate – 48.70% (56th)

Miami Ohio currently has a 4-4 record but is 3-1 within conference play. They played a tough non-conference schedule with losses to Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Their only conference loss came against Eastern Michigan by one point. They have also defeated Central Michigan, Akron and Ball State. Running the same offense as 2020, Miami Ohio plays extremely slow, but balanced football.

After missing a pair of game, Brett Gabbert ($7,400) regained his starting job over A.J. Mayer ($7,000). On the year, Gabbert averages 134.7 yards passing per game, but these numbers are depressed due to injury and both quarterbacks split time to open the season. Neither quarterback has been particularly good, but Gabbert has been better. He completes 58.8% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt, compared to Mayer’s 54.4% completion percentage and 7.6 yards per attempt. Gabbert has solid mobility, with 93 yards on the ground so far this year. Overall, this is another situation where Gabbert could be benched with any miscue. Miami Ohio rotated Gabbert and Mayer frequently to start the year, raising job security questions here. Either way, Gabbert should be set to start and finish this game against a weaker opponent in Ohio. He is a middling consideration on this three game slate.

While Keyon Mozee ($4,800) has a clear edge in terms of carries on the year, Miami Ohio fully utilizes a running back by committee. While Mozee leads the team in raw carries, Tyre Shelton ($3,700) averages the most touches per game at 10.3. Kevin Davis ($4,300), Kenny Tracy ($3,500) and Jaylon Bester ($3,000) are also involved on occasion, making this a tricky situation to target. Ohio does allow over 200 yards rushing per game to opponents, so this backfield still looks viable in GPPs. For those taking the risky, Mozee and Shelton will handle a majority of the opportunities on the ground. Davis and Tracy play primarily in the pass game. Either way, Mozee and Shelton are the top two options.

At receiver, Miami Ohio has an alpha in Jack Sorenson ($8,400). He averages 84.1 yards receiving per game on 7.5 targets. Recently, these number have spiked even higher with Sorenson averaging 8.5 over his last four games. This equates to a 26.9% target share, which ranks narrowly ahead of Mac Hippenhammer‘s ($4,900) 24.7% target share. Hippenhammer is used more underneath, averaging just 62.1 yards per game. However, he has averaged 8.8 targets per game over Miami Ohio’s last four contests, which ranks ahead of Sorenson. The WR3 in this offense is Jalen Walker ($3,200). Walker only averages 16.1 yards receiving per game on 3.4 targets. He will leave the field occasionally when Miami Ohio uses 12 personnel. Jack Coldiron ($3,000) is the main tight end, but he splits time with Andrew Homer ($4,500). Homer has worked ahead of Coldiron as a pass catcher in recent weeks. He has out-targeted Coldiron 12-3 over Miami Ohio’s last three games. Overall, Hippenhammer is the top price adjusted play, but all three of the main receivers can be used here.

Ohio (22.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 64 (188th)

Pass Rate – 41.74% (101st)

Ohio is 1-7 this year, with their only win coming against Akron. They have lost to Syracuse, Duquesne, Louisiana, Northwestern, Central Michigan, Buffalo and Kent State. The three most recent losses all occurred by single digits. Characteristic of the Bobcats, Ohio continues to run one of the slowest, run heaviest and least efficient offenses in the entire country.

Another team with quarterback controversy, Kurtis Rourke ($6,200) looks to have regained his starting job over Armani Rogers ($5,200). Rogers started Ohio’s last game against Kent State but hit the bench after ineffective play. Rourke entered the game and completed 31 of 38 passes for 308 yards on the day. Rourke has completed 69.5% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt on the year. However, Rogers has not been any better, completing 60% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks are mobile, with Rogers accounting for 436 yards on 68 carries and Rourke registering 135 yards on 34 attempts. Miami Ohio does allow 153.7 yards to opposing rushers, but Ohio’s inept offense still renders Rourke a pure GPP play. Not to mention, there is still a chance that Ohio makes the switch back to Rogers at any sign of distress here.

Ohio historically utilizes a running back by committee and 2021 looks no different. Veterans De’Montre Tuggle ($6,600) and O’Shaan Allison ($4,500) will handle most of the work here. On the year, Tuggle has out-touched Allison 99-91. However, he has been far more efficient, averaging 71.9 yards per game, compared to 54.7 for Allison. More of Allison’s work comes in the pass game, evidenced by his seven-target game in Ohio’s most recent contest. Mentioned above, Miami Ohio allows over 150 yards rushing per game, but this game looks better served for GPPs at an elevated price.

Ohio is typically a run-heavy offense, depressing volume to the pass catchers. Tyler Walton ($4,000) leads the team with 32 targets overall and averages just four per game. This volume equates to 34.6 yards receiving per game, which ranks narrowly ahead of Cameron Odom ($4,700). However, Walton has essentially hit the bench. He has not participated in more than 39% of the routes in three straight games. Meanwhile, Odom has moved into a full time role with ten targets in Ohio’s last three games. He also only averages 32.9 yards receiving per game. The receiver opposite Odom of late is Isiah Cox ($4,200). Cox only averages 23.8 yards per game this year on three targets, but he consistently participates in a majority of the team’s routes. Last time out, Cox and Odom received seven and six targets, respectively. As a team, Ohio will lean heavily on 12 personnel, putting Ryan Luehrman ($3,300) and Adam Luehrman ($3,000) on the field together. Ryan is the primary pass catcher and ranks third on the team with 22 targets overall. He only averages 18.8 yards per game, so he is still low upside. Adam only has four targets on the year and will be used primarily as a blocker. Another reason for Walton’s decline is Miles Cross ($3,000). Cross has not participated in more than 57% of the team’s routes in any individual game, but he has participated in more than Walton in three straight. Walton still has a 7-6 target edge over their last three games. Odom and Cox are the most reliable plays here.

Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo

Eastern Michigan (21.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.1 (91st)

Pass Rate – 52.62% (28th)

Eastern Michigan ranks 5-3 overall with a 2-2 record within conference. Their losses came against Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and Ball State. Their wins within conference came against Miami Ohio and Bowling Green. They also took a number of easy non-conference games against St. Francis, UMass and Texas State. Eastern Michigan is below average in terms of pace, but they are throwing the ball at an elevated rate this year. Their plays have also increased in conference play, closer to the 72.5 they ran per game last year.

After splitting time at quarterback earlier this year, Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant ($6,500) has emerged as Eastern Michigan’s clear starting quarterback. Bryant averages 229.4 yards passing per game on 27.1 attempts. He is not the most mobile, but he still has 21 cumulative yards rushing on the year. Bryant completes 69% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt. Preston Hutchinson ($6,300) completes only 56.3% of his passes for 5.1 yards per attempt, giving Bryant a distinct edge in this quarterback room. Toledo has played solid defense overall this year, but Bryant is one of the few quarterbacks with some job security on this slate. For that reason, he is viable in GPPs.

The Eastern Michigan running back room is a complete disaster with four backs involved. Darius Boone (5,700) leads the group with 10.8 touches per game, but his 47.5 yards per game leave much to be desired. Recently, Jawon Hamilton ($3,600) has become more involved, out-touching Boone in each of Eastern Michigan’s last two games. He has also been more efficient, averaging 50.3 yards per game on 9.9 touches. Behind them, Samson Evans ($5,500) and Bryson Moss ($3,000) are also involved, making this backfield a pure four-way committee. Toledo plays solid defense for the MAC, making this a potential situation to avoid outside of large field tournaments.

Eastern Michigan’s pass game flows through two primary options in Hassan Beydoun ($5,600) and Dylan Drummond ($6,800). Beydoun leads the team with 63 targets and 519 yards. However, he is cheaper than Drummond, who has 60 targets and 513 yards. Even over the last four games, Beydoun averages 10.8 targets per game to Drummond’s 8.3. Behind them, Zach Westmoreland ($3,700) has the largest workload in close games. He averages just 38.3 yards per game on 3.1 targets, but he works ahead of anyone else. Tight end Bryson Cannon ($4,100) has one more target than Westmoreland on the year, but he has increasingly rotated with tight ends Gunnar Oakes ($4,600) and Thomas Odukoya ($3,900). Neither of these tight ends are particularly involved themselves, but they siphon off enough snaps to hurt Cannon. All of the other receivers rotate in for minimal snaps, making Beydoun the top price-adjusted play.

Toledo (30.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 70.45 (63rd)

Pass Rate – 48.48% (59th)

Toledo enters this contest with a 4-4 record and a 2-2 record within the MAC. Their losses have come against Notre Dame, Colorado State, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan, while they defeated Norfolk State, Ball State, UMass and Western Michigan. Toledo has played much slower this year, with their plays dropping from 79.3 to 70.4 this year. However, their pass rate has remained constant around the league average. This will change inside conference play to some degree. Even last week, Toledo reduced their pass rate to 38.6%.

After starting Carter Bradley ($6,400) to begin the year, Toledo made the switch to Dequan Finn ($7,800) in their two most recent games. Finn is a much different player than Bradley as an elite dual threat. Finn already has 351 yards on limited snaps, while Bradley checks in with -26. As a passer, Finn has struggled with a 51% completion percentage and 7.1 yards per attempt. However, he has five touchdowns and no interceptions. Finn gets a much better matchup this week against an Eastern Michigan defense allowing 195.4 yards rushing per game. However, job security is still an issue here. Either way, Finn’s athleticism makes him a strong play as long as he gets the starting nod.

The only team uses any semblance of a feature back, Toledo’s Bryant Koback ($7,900) averages 79.5 rushing and 28.1 yards receiving on 17.9 touches per game. With that said, Koback has only eclipsed 15 touches twice in the last four games. Jacquez Stuart ($3,000) and Micah Kelly ($3,900) average 4.3 touches apiece in this offense. While this generally does not contribute to DFS relevancy on their own, they do siphon off a few carries from Koback every week. Fortunately, Koback is also the best pass catching back on this slate. Fourth on the team in targets, Koback should remain involved regardless of game script. This makes him the top overall running back play on the slate.

Similar to 2020, Toledo will use a wide receiver rotation. However, they have shown a willingness to condense targets in close games. Isaiah Winstead ($4,300) functions as one of those receivers and leads the team with 5.3 targets per game. However, he is used more underneath with Devin Maddox ($5,000) receiving more usage downfield. Maddox averages five targets per game himself, but his 50.9 yards receiving per game dwarf Winstead’s 38.3. The usual WR3 here is Bryce Mitchell ($3,900), but Toledo announced that he will miss this game and potentially the remainder of the season. Mitchell averages 24.9 yards per game on 4.3 targets, but his route rate lines up with Winstead and Maddox in competitive games. This should elevate Jerjuan Newton ($3,100) and Danzel McKinley-Lewis ($4,400) from their usual rotational snaps. Neither has the clear inside track and this looks like a legitimate 50/50 time share. They average 2.1 and 1.8 targets per game, respectively. Tight end Jamal Turner ($3,300) runs more routes than both, but he only averages 1.6 targets per game. The only other player worth mentioning is rotational receiver DeMeer Blankumsee ($3,000) who may see slightly more snaps without Mitchell. Either way, Maddox, Winstead, Newton, and McKinley-Lewis are the preferred plays in that order.

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Check out our industry-leading DFS CFB projections for DraftKings. Looking for more the best college football DFS advice and DFS CFB golf picks? Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the FanDuel college football DFS ownership projections for this week.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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