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College Football DFS: Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Wednesday, 11/3/2021

Matt Gajewski



Week 10 action kicks off with a Wednesday two-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 10 CFB DFS picks for Wednesday’s matchup.

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College Football DFS: Week 10 Wednesday CFB Picks

Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan

Central Michigan (26.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 79.1 (8th)

Pass Rate – 56.32% (13th)

Central Michigan enters this game with a 4-4 record and a 2-2 record inside conference play. Their losses occurred to Missouri, LSU, Miami Ohio and Northern Illinois, while they defeated Florida International, Ohio and Toledo. Quietly, Central Michigan runs one of the most uptempo, pass heavy offenses in the country to this point in the season. Western Michigan also plays with pace, giving this game shootout potential.

At quarterback, Central Michigan benched Washington transfer Jacob Sirmon ($5,300) in favor of Daniel Richardson ($5,600). Richardson has completed 58.3% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt against weaker competition, while Sirmon checks in with a 61.3% completion percentage for 6.2 yards per attempt. Neither quarterback is particularly mobile. Richardson has negative-8 cumulative yards rushing to Sirmon’s negative-53 .With all that said, whoever starts for this offense holds solid value based on the pass-heavy, uptempo scheme. Richardson already has four games above 250 yards this year, showing a clear ceiling in the pass game. He is a fine target for DFS.

In the run game, Lew Nichols ($8,300) is a pure feature back for Central Michigan. He averages 114.5 yards rushing and 24.1 yards receiving on 25.3 touches per game. Involved in all facets, Nichols has back to back eight-target games and remains extremely involved as a pass catcher. Nichols has handled at least 30 touches in three straight games for Central Michigan, making him an excellent play even at an elevated price. Myles Bailey ($3,000) is the change of pace back, but he averages just 4.6 touches per game. Darius Bracy ($3,000) will also be making his return from injury, but that likely does not affect Nichols much.

At receiver Kalil Pimpleton ($6,400) is still the team’s top option. He averages 76 yards receiving per game on 8.9 targets, which equates to a 24.2% target share. JaCorey Sullivan ($6,100) returned from injury and immediately saw eight targets upon his return. He averages 74.5 yards receiving per game on 7.5 targets. Dallas Dixon ($4,200) is also heavily involved with 68.5 yards receiving on 7.3 targets per game. He will work slightly behind Pimpleton and Sullivan, but he is still a solid target. At tight end Joel Wilson ($3,900) averages 25.5 yards receiving per game on 3.9 targets, but he plays a full-time role in the offense. He has eclipsed 75% of the routes in five straight games for Central Michigan, putting him in play. Remi Simmons ($3,200) is the next man up at wide receiver, if Sullivan or another player is a surprise inactive.

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Western Michigan (36.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.7 (11th)

Pass Rate – 43.38% (90th)

Now 5-3 and 2-2 inside the MAC, Western Michigan hold the most impressive victory of any team in the conference. Western Michigan defeated Pittsburgh, San Jose State, Buffalo and Kent State on their way here. Their only losses came to Michigan, Ball State and Toledo. Differing sharply from last year, Western Michigan’s play volume has increased from 66.5 plays per game to 78.7 to start the year. This has occurred while retaining a run-heavy offense.

Western Michigan has a veteran quarterback in Kaleb Eleby ($6,500). Eleby is somewhat mobile, with 30 yards on the ground. As a passer, he averages 247 yards passing per game on 29.5 attempts. His efficiency has taken a step back this year with Dee Eskridge moving on to the NFL. Eleby completes 60.9% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt. This is still efficient, but last year he averaged an absurd 11.2 yards per attempt. Eleby generally needs negative game script to reach his ceiling, but he has already eclipsed 300 yards passing twice this year. He also has another two games above 250 yards. Central Michigan allows 307.3 yards passing to their opponents, potentially elevating Eleby’s efficiency here as well.

Unlike Central Michigan, Western Michigan employs a running back by committee. Michigan State transfer La’Darius Jefferson ($4,600) will leads this group. He averages an inefficient 70.8 yards per game on 17.4 touches. However, he has recently ceded additional work to Sean Tyler ($5,500) and Jaxson Kincaide ($3,500). Tyler has been far more efficient, averaging 88.2 yards per game on 15 touches. Tyler out-touched Jefferson in Western Michigan’s most recent game potentially pointing to more work moving forward. Kincaide is generally third in line for touches, but he averages 23 yards on 5.3 touches on the year. Recently, he has seen more work with 9 and 10 carries in back to back games. Still just a change of pace, Kincaide is a pure GPP dart. Overall, Tyler is the best play here with the chance to take on more work down the stretch.

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At receiver Skyy Moore ($7,500) and Jaylen Hall ($5,400) are the primary options for Western Michigan. Moore averages 108.7 yards receiving per game on 10.3 targets. This opportunity has condensed further inside conference play with Moore averaging 11.8 targets over Western Michigan’s last four games. Hall has also been extremely involved, averaging 61.9 yards receiving on 5.8 targets per game. He has firmly jumped ahead of Corey Crooms ($4,300), who has played a pure rotational role of late. Crooms averaged 6.5 targets per game on the season, but he has not been targeted in two straight games as his snaps continue to plummet. He is still the WR3 it appears, but his lack of involvement is concerning. Anthony Torres ($3,300) will man the tight end position. He only averages 1.6 targets per game, but he has played more than Crooms of late. Both are risky GPP plays here. Ultimately, sticking with Moore and Hall looks like the best way to approach Western Michigan here.

Northern Illinois vs. Kent State

Northern Illinois (31 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 70 (69th)

Pass Rate – 32.04% (126th)

Northern Illinois currently boasts a 6-2 record and sits at 4-0 in conference play. Their only losses came to Wyoming and Michigan. They knocked off Georgia Tech, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, Bowling Green and Central Michigan to get here. However, each of these wins occurred by eight points or less, creating an interesting situation here against Kent State. Like Kent State on the other side, Northern Illinois likes to play fast. They are only running 70 plays per game on the year, but recently that has shot up closer to 2020’s 76 plays per game. While Northern Illinois is extremely run heavy, their play volume makes them a solid target against a porous Kent State defense.

Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi ($6,900) operates Northern Illinois’ run heavy offense. Somewhat surprisingly, Lombardi has been extremely involved on the ground with 324 cumulative yards rushing on the year. He has even showed a ceiling with three games above 70 yards rushing. However, that accounts for 87% of his rushing output this year. As a passer, Lombardi averages 165.1 yards passing per game on just 21.6 attempts. He currently completes 57.8% of his passes for a modest 7.6 yards per attempt. Lombardi is basically a game manager for Northern Illinois, but he did throw for 348 yards against Central Michigan. Outside of that anomalous performance, he has only eclipsed 200 yards twice and fallen below 100 on three occasions. Northern Illinois would clearly prefer to employ a rushing based attack. Lombardi has only been above 30 passing attempts once this year, making him a risky GPP option. Kent State does allow 288.1 yards passing per game, opening the door for increased efficiency.

Harrison Waylee ($4,900) functioned as Northern Illinois’ lead back prior to injury. He has not been on the team’s depth chart for multiple weeks, but his status has also not been updated. The same goes for Antario Brown ($3,000), who acted as Northern Illinois’ primary rusher immediately in place of Waylee before going down himself. Without both in the picture, Jevyon Ducker ($5,200) saw 33 and 31 carries in back to back games for Northern Illinois. He played well in that span with 210 yards against Bowling Green and another 183 against Central Michigan. Clint Ratkovich ($3,700) played a change of pace role, but he still saw 15 carries during that span himself. Waylee should still be the lead back when healthy, but Ducker may have played his way ahead of an inefficient Brown. Northern Illinois is one of the run heaviest teams in the country and Kent State allows 213.7 yards rushing per game, making this backfield one to target. This situation could come down to pregame warmups.

Tyrice Richie ($5,100) is the lone alpha receiver for Northern Illinois. He averages 60 yards per game on 8.4 targets and has seen double digit looks in three of his last four games. Trayvon Rudolph ($5,900) has operated as NIU’s WR2 of late. He averages 41.3 yards receiving per game on 3.3 targets. However, Cole Tucker ($4,400) returned to NIU’s depth chart after missing a series of games due to injury. Tucker averages 51.5 yards receiving per game on four targets before going down with the injury. The pair were splitting routes almost evenly before the injury. Messiah Travis ($3,000) was also splitting routes evenly, but he recently saw a role reduction. Travis participated in just 10% and 38.7% of the NIU’s routes over their last two games. This coincides with the emergence of Mohamed Toure ($3,000), whose route rate jumped to 45% last week. Toure has exactly three targets in NIU’s last three games, compared to ten for Travis. Tucker’s potential return would hurt them both significantly. At tight end, Tristen Tewes ($3,000) has recently seen a role reduction in favor of Miles Joiner ($3,800). Ultimately, Northern Illinois likes to involve multiple tight ends, which also includes Liam Soraghan ($3,000). None of whom sees a sizeable workload in the pass game. Sticking with Richie is the best option here, but the ancillary pass catchers are interesting leverage plays in tournaments.

Kent State (36 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.9 (10th)

Pass Rate – 43.30% (91st)

Kent State enters this game with a 4-4 record and 3-1 record inside conference play. They played a brutally difficult non-conference schedule, dropping games to Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland. They also lost to Western Michigan inside the MAC, but they defeated Bowling Green, Buffalo and Ohio. Just like last year, Kent State is a fairly run heavy team, but they play with incredible pace. Combined with a poor defense and Kent State offers shootout potential here.

Kent State has a veteran quarterback in Dustin Crum ($7,900). Crum is an elite dual threat with 368 yards rushing this year. He only averages 221.5 yards passing per game on 27.6 attempts, but his statistics are still depressed from a brutally difficult slate of non-conference games. Crum is completing 62.3% of his passes for 8 yards per attempt. While this is much lower than his 73.5% completion percentage and 10.5 yards per attempt last year, his numbers have already begun to positively regress. Crum has two games over 300 yards passing this year and five games over 60 yards rushing. This game has shootout written all over it, making Crum a solid target in DFS.

At running back Kent State primarily uses two backs in Marquez Cooper ($5,700) and Xavier Williams ($4,100). Cooper averages 77.9 yards per game on 16 touches to 50.3 yards per game on 10.3 touches for Williams. Cooper has shown a massive ceiling from a touch perspective, but Kent State has moved more towards a committee in recent weeks. Even Bryan Bradford ($3,200) has been involved on occasion, averaging 6.2 touches per game. Northern Illinois allows 194.3 yards rushing per game, making this an intriguing situation. Cooper is the best play, but Williams could also be used in GPPs.

Kent State plays a narrow receiver rotation led by Dante Cephas ($7,200). Cephas averages 85.8 yards receiving per game on 9.1 targets. Even more involved of late, Cephas averages 11 targets in his last four games. Syracuse transfer Nykeim Johnson ($4,700) is also heavily involved, averaging 50.4 yards receiving per game on 6.3 targets. The same goes for Keshunn Abram ($4,000) averaging 45 yards receiving per game on 4.9 targets. Kent Stats often utilizes four wide receiver sets, which keeps Ja’Shaun Poke ($3,100) in play. Poke has a 45% route rate this season, but he still averages 3.3 targets per game over Kent State’s last three contests. Outside of these four, Kent State pass catchers are pure dart throws.

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Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the college football DFS ownership projections. Check out our industry-leading DraftKings DFS college football projections for this week. Looking for more CFB DFS picks for DraftKings and college football DFS picks for this week?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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