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College Football DFS: Bowl Games Projections & CFB Picks | Friday, 12/24/2021

Matt Gajewski



The 2021-22 college football bowl schedule has been released and we are embarking on postseason play. There is one game on today’s slate with Memphis taking on Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl, providing a showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football bowl game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for today’s bowl game matchups.

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CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Projections

Hawaii Bowl: Memphis vs Hawaii

Memphis (32 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.0 (39th)

Pass Rate – 55.04% (17h)

Memphis finished the season 6-6 after playing a fairly difficult schedule. As a team, the Tigers typically play very fast and pass heavy football. That style of play is mirrored by Hawaii, creating a solid scoring environment for these two teams. AT quarterback, Memphis uses Seth Henigan ($18,300). Henigan played excellent football this season, averaging 301.5 passing yards per game on 35.8 attempts. Henigan also has excellent dual-threat ability, evidenced by his 387 cumulative rushing yards this year. Hawaii plays average defense across the board, which Henigan should find ways to exploit. The freshman singal-caller also brings plenty of upside. On the year, he eclipsed 300 passing yards on six occasions. Henigan is the most expensive player on the slate for good reason and rightfully deserves a look in the captain slot.

In the run game, Memphis has battled injuries all season. Leading rusher Brandon Thomas ($7,500) isn’t expected to play in this game and Memphis already lost a depth piece in Kylan Watkins ($1,500). This should leave Rodrigues Clark ($6,900) as the lead back, with Asa Martin ($3,300) operating as a change of pace. On the year, Clark averages 9.0 touches per game, but he has 13 touches in back to back games for Memphis. Likewise, Martin averages 5.1 touches per game, but he has also seen at least 10 touches in back to back games for Memphis. Martin also appears to have found a role as the primary pass catching back. He has at least three targets in three straight games for the Tigers. Memphis will also mix in Marquavius Weaver ($3,600) as a change of pace back. Weaver averages 5.0 touches per game, but has exactly three carries in two straight games. This backfield looks likely to remain a timeshare with Clark and Martin operating as the most consistent pieces here.

At receiver, Calvin Austin ($15,000) opted out of this game in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. He leaves behind 1,145 receiving yards and 121 targets. Tight end Sean Dykes ($7,200) is actually the second leading receiver on the year with 657 yards and 61 targets. He has seen at least six targets in four straight games for Memphis. Behind him, Eddie Lewis ($10,200) and Javon Ivory ($11,400) should fill the void left by Austin. Ivory missed Memphis’ most recent game, but his 413 receiving yards narrowly edge Lewis’ 349 on the year. Both saw exactly 50 targets in the regular season. The WR3 should be Gabriel ($2,700), who is incorrectly labeled as a running back on DraftKings. Rogers will primarily play in the slot and he should be a candidate to see an expanded role after accounting for 179 receiving yards on 29 targets in the regular season. From there, Koby Drake ($3,000) has been used as an occasional rotational receiver. He can be used in large field tournaments, but Dykes looks like the top price-adjusted play here.


Hawaii (23.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.2 (56th)

Pass Rate – 55.15% (16th)

Finishing the year 6-7 Hawaii barely found themselves bowl eligible. Making matters worse the Rainbow Warriors finished 3-5 in the Mountain West Conference before a slew of transfers departed from their program. One of these transfers was longtime signal caller Chevan Cordeiro ($15,300). Not expected to play in this game, Hawaii will turn to backup Brayden Schager ($15,900). Schager is a much different quarterback. He isn’t mobile whatsoever with -50 cumulative yards on the year. The freshman has also shown limited upside, completing 60.2% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt. Schager spot-started a few times for Cordeiro this season, but he never eclipsed 219 passing yards in a single outing. Making matters worse, Schager is expensive here. At the very least, he should be a contrarian play.

In the run game, Dae Dae Hunter ($9,600) also hit the transfer portal, vacating 101 carries and 649 rushing yards. He had recently taken a step back to Dedrick Parsons ($9,000) in the run game, so the transfer makes some sense. Parsons himself averaged 47.5 rushing and 21.5 receiving yards per game on 12 touches. Parsons actually ranked fourth on the team in targets at 39. Calvin Turner ($14,100) will also sometimes leave his role in the slot to handle a few carries. He has 71 carries on the year for 332 yards. Without Hunter, it is possible that he handles a few more opportunities. Otherwise, only James Phillips ($1,500) and Nasjzae Bryant ($1,500) are left as depth pieces for Hawaii. Phillips and Bryant carries the ball three times and one time respectively.

Mentioned above, Turner will typically play the slot for Hawaii. He is the team’s most-targeted receiver, averaging 9.5 targets per game. However, his 870 receiving yards actually fall behind Nick Mardner ($12,900) for most on the team. Mardner only averages 6.7 targets per game, but his big play ability makes him an awesome GPP play. Behind these two, Hawaii recently began giving Zion Bowens ($6,300) a longer look in the receiving game. Bowens only has 17 targets on the year, but 15 of those came in his last three games. Bowens climb up the depth chart has negatively affected Jared Smart ($8,400). While Smart’s 414 receiving yards and 42 targets each rank third on the team, he hasn’t participated in more than 25% of the team’s routes in back to back games. Outside of tight end Caleb Phillips ($2,400) averages 2.2 targets per game and rotational receiver Jonah Panoke ($4,800) averages 1.5. Interestingly, Panoke saw four targets in Hawaii’s most recent game. However, he still only participated in 37% of routes. Overall, this receiving room is priced efficiently.

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Check out Awesemo college football betting experts Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down
the entire 2021 College Football Bowl Game Schedule and giving their predictions, best betting picks and parlays.

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Check out our industry-leading DraftKings DFS college football projections. Looking for more DFS college football FanDuel picks and DFS CFB FanDuel picks? Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the FanDuel college football DFS ownership projections.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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