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College Football DFS: Bowl Games Projections & CFB Picks | Monday, 12/27/2021

Matt Gajewski



The 2021-22 college football bowl schedule has been released and we are embarking on postseason play. Today’s slate features two games on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football bowl game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for today’s bowl game matchups.

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CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Projections

Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan vs Nevada

Western Michigan (31.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 77.0 (14th)

Pass Rate – 42.50% (100th)

Western Michigan finished the regular season 7-5 with a marquee win over Pittsburgh. However, Western Michigan only went 4-4 in the MAC. As a team Western Michigan plays extremely fast, but they prefer a run-first approach. At quarterback, the Broncos rely on Kaleb Eleby ($7,100). Eleby isn’t the most mobile with 41 rushing yards per game. As a passer, he averages 259.5 yards per game on 28.9 attempts. Eleby has been fairly efficient this year, but he requires a competitive game to be pushed towards a ceiling game. He had four games over 300 passing yards this year, which occurred against Pittsburgh, Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois. However, Eleby was above 250 yards on three other occasions. Nevada plays solid pass defense, but Eleby has overcome better defenses. Overall, Eleby brings a safer floor, but he is still a little overpriced for his volume.

At running back, Western Michigan utilizes a rotation between La’Darius Jefferson ($4,300), Sean Tyler ($6,000), and Jaxson Kincaide ($3,100). Jefferson actually leads the team with 186 carries, but he hans’t been efficient on those opportunities with just 839 yards. In comparison, Tyler has exactly 1,000 rushing yards on 163 carries. However, this backfield largely remains an even timeshare. Interstingly, Tyler out-touched Jefferson 17-10 in their season finale against Northern Illinois. Tyler also leads the running back group with 19 targets. Kincaide averages 31.6 yards per game on 5.9 touches per game as a pure change of pace. As far as matchup, Nevada allows 4.7 yards per rush attempt, creating a solid game environment for these rushers as touchdown favorites.

At receiver, Skyy Moore ($7,500) has been a pure alpha. Moore is draft eligible, but he has not yet declared. The third-year player averages 114.1 receiving yards per game on 10.6 targets. He has also seen 11.3 targets per game in Western Michigan’s last four games. Overall, Moore is Western Michigan’s best skill position player. Just make sure to check before kickoff that he is in fact playing. Behind him, Corey Crooms ($4,500) should become a clear value play with Jaylen Hall ($5,000) hitting the transfer portal. As we’ve seen in other situations, Hall could still play in this game, but it would be a surprise. As the team’s second-leading receiver, Hall vacates 752 yards on 68 targets. Crooms finished the regular season with 694 receiving yards on 74 targets and he should now take on an elevated role in this receiving room. The favorite for the WR3 job if Hall sits would be Bryce Nunnely ($3,000). Nunnelly has 89 receiving yards on 15 targets this year, but he has a 39% route share on the year with a fully healthy group of receivers. That number should jump here. At tight end, Anthony Torres also entered the transfer portal after playing a reduced role down the stretch. This coincides directly with increased role for Brett Borske ($3,300). Borske only has five targets this year, but they all came in the final three games of the year. Moore and Crooms are the best plays here, but Nunnely and Borske could be viable punts.

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Nevada (24.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 75.0 (26th)

Pass Rate – 65.33% (3rd)

Nevada finished the regular season with an 8-4 record with only one loss coming by double digits. The Wolf Pack play extremely fast and uptempo. However, they are dealing with a mass exodus of premier players including, Carson Strong and their top six pass catchers Romeo Doubs, Cole Turner, Melquan Stovall, Tory Horton, Justin Lockhart, and Elijah Cooks. The program also lost head coach Jay Norvell and offensive coordinator Matt Mumme, so the offense could shift drastically in the bowl. With so many departures, Nevada will turn to Nate Cox ($5,900) at quarterback. Cox is 6-foot-9 and with 20 pass attempts on the season. Cox was recruited as a pro-style quarterback, but he has 26 rushing yards on five carries this year, giving him some hope in the run game. Cox completes 68.2% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt, but that really isn’t saying much with his minuscule sample. Former walk-on Jonah Chong will act as his backup.

In the run game, the Wolf Pack actually look fairly put together. Lead back Toa Taua ($5,200) and change of pace Devonte Lee ($3,500) are both with the program. Taua led the backfield this year with 58.8 rushing and 21.3 receiving yards per game on 15.0 touches. Taua has at least 15 touches in four straight games. Behind him, Lee averaged 20.6 rushing and 8.4 receiving yards per game on 8.8 touches. Lee has fallen below that touch average in three straight games as Taua has taken on a larger role down the stretch. Because of their involvement in the pass game, both can be used here with a preference to Taua.

Without their top six pass catchers, Nevada is going to be a disaster to predict. The team released a depth chart and here’s what we know. Carson Walters ($3,000) and Evidence Njoku are listed as X receivers. Walerts has two targets and -3 receiving yards on the year. Njoku isn’t in the player pool on DraftKings, but he was listed as the starter over Walters. Jamaal Bell ($3,000) and Dylan Overstreet were listed as starter and backup as H-receiver, who plays the slot. Bell has 44 yards on nine targets, but he played a role as a kick returner this year. Overstreet is a freshman walk-on, who converted from running back. He is not in the player pool. Tyrese Mack ($3,000) was listed as the starting Z-receiver over Zeke Robbins. Mack registered 16 yards on two targets this year, while Robbins plays defensive back. His move two receiver signals Nevada’s poor depth. Interstingly, Harry Ballard ($3,100) wasn’t listed on the depth chart despite playing a decent role down the stretch and seeing a pair of targets in Nevada’s final game. At tight end, Nevada listed Carlton Brown ($3,000) as the starter over Reagan Roberson ($3,000). Brown doesn’t have a single target on the year and Roberson only has two. Roberson played more than Brown throughout the year, so both should be involved here. Crishaun Lappin ($3,000) could also be involved. He wasn’t on the two-deep, but he played down the stretch for this team and saw one target in Nevada’s final game. This team is a disaster, but Bell is probably the safest among options in the player pool.

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Military Bowl: East Carolina vs Boston College

East Carolina (24.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 79.3 (5th)

Pass Rate – 49.31% (51st)

Finishing the regular season 7-5, East Carolina out-performed expectations on their way to bowl eligibility. As an offense, they play extremely fast with a slight preference towards the pass. The Pirates are quarterbacked by veteran Holton Ahlers ($6,400), who has decent mobility. Ahlers has 199 rushing yards this year, but his rushing output has steadily declined throughout his career. Still, he has six rushing scores on the year and can win with his legs if needed. As a passer, Ahlers averages 260.3 passing yards per game on 34.8 attempts. This comes with plenty of upside after Ahlers eclipsed 300 yards on three occasions and and 275 on three other occasions. Boston College’s primary weakness comes against the run and they defend the pass fairly well. However, Ahlers is a cheaper dual threat in a solid game environment.

At running back, East Carolina uses both Keaton Mitchell ($6,300) and Rahjai Harris ($3,400). This backfield intially began as a direct 50/50 timeshare. However, the backfield has slowly moved in Mitchell’s direction after playing better throughout the year. Mitchell has 1,117 rushing yards on 174 carries, while Harris checks in at 583 rushing yards on 165 carries. After crushing Harris in terms of efficiency, Mitchell has now out-touched Harris in three of East Carolina’s last four games. Mitchell and Harris both have 29 targets, but Mitchell’s 254 receiving yards best Harris’ 190 on the year. Overall, Mitchell is the safer play, but expect both rushers to be involved here. Boston College allows 4.7 yards per rush attempt, creating a solid matchup for both East Carolina rushers.

At receiver, East Carolina’s receiving room has shifted around this year. Overall, Tyler Snead ($5,400) leads the group with 71.2 receiving yards per game on 8.1 targets. His target volume has jumped to 9.3 targets per game over East Carolina’s final four games, making him the safest play here. Audie Omotosho ($4,000) has played a larger role down the stretch for East Carolina after beginning the year as a part time receiver. Omotosho only averages 40.9 receiving yards per game on 6.0 targets, but that number has jumped to 7.5 targets per game in East Carolina’s last four games. He has 25 targets over the Pirates’ last three games. Omotosho’s increased role has come at the expense of CJ Johnson ($3,600). Johnson actually ranks secon d on the team with 520 receiving yards, but his 3.8 targets per game over the last four games leaves a lot to be desired. He also only participated in 44% of routes against Cincinnati in the season finale, while Jsi Hatfield ($3,200) also played 44%. However, this has ebbed and flowed all year. In a three-point win over Navy in the week prior, Hatfield only played three snaps, to Johnson’s 65. This is a volatile situation. At tight end, Ryan Jones ($4,800) has plaed an excellent role down the stretch. He only averages 36.8 receiving yards on 4.1 targets per game this year. However, he averages 6.8 targets per game over East Carolina’s last four games, seeing at least five targets per game in that span. Overall, Snead, Omotosho, Jones, and Johnson are all affordable enough to look at in tournaments.

Boston College (27.75Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 66.6 (108th)

Pass Rate – 40.25% (112th)

Boston College finished the regular season with a 6-6 record after picking up for easy wins in non-conference. However, much of Boston College’s ACC schedule was played without their starting quarterback. Overall, Boston College played the 2021 season with a slow place and a high run rate. However, this team ran 70.8 plays per game with a 53.66% pass rate with a healthy quarterback in 2020. The quarterback mentioned above, Phil Jurkovec ($6,700) already announced his intention to return to Boston College in 2022. Jurkovec is extremely mobile with 322 rushing yards on 52 running opportunities this year (sacks included). As a passer, Jurkovec only averages 152.3 passing yards per game on 16 attempts. However, this sample is affected by injury. Jurkovec actually has a pair of 300-yard passing games in just six games he appeared in. Still, this offense has been extremely volatile, making Jurkovec somewhat risky. Overall, his rushing floor still makes him a solid play at this price.

At running back, Boston College draws a phenomenal matchup against an East Carolina defense allowing 4.9 rushing yards per attempt. Pat Garwo ($5,800) has been the lead back for Boston College throughout the year. He averages 88.9 yards per game on 17.8 touches. Boston College was absolutely demolished in their season finale against Wake Forest, leading to just 13 touches for Garwo. However, he had at least 25 touches in three straight games, prior to that disaster of a season finale. Behind him, Boston College will utilize Alec Sinkfield ($3,000) and Travis Levy ($3,200) as change of pace options. Sinkfield and Levy average 7.0 and 6.4 touches per game respectively. Sinkfield hasn’t eclipsed that number in three straight games and comes without any semblance of a pass game role. He only has two targets on the year. Levy is the preferred pass catching back here. His 20 targets also best Garwo’s six on the year. Still, even Levy has nine total touches over Boston College’s last four games. With Sinkfield and Levy playing a reduced role of late, Garwo looks like a potential buy-low at a cheaper price here.

In the receiving game, Zay Flowers ($6,000) is the team’s leading receiver, averaging 62.2 yards per game on 6.8 targets. Boston College has condensed their target share as the season has progressed. Jaden Williams ($3,300) and Jaelen Gill ($3,500) have settled in as the WR2 and WR3 . Williams averages 3.8 targets per game over the last four games, while Gill checks in with 3.0. Both could be used as pure punt plays in this offense. At tight end, Trae Barry ($3,400) actaully ranks second on the team with 362 receiving yards on 33 targets. Barry has been banged up down the stretch with only six combined targets over their last four games. This coincides with extra snaps for Joey Luchetti ($3,000). However, there is a chance Barry returns to his normal role, making him the preferred punt between the two tight ends. Overall, Flowers and Williams are the two top plays among the Boston College pass catchers.

Check out Awesemo college football betting experts Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down
the entire 2021 College Football Bowl Game Schedule and giving their predictions, best betting picks and parlays.

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Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the CFB DFS ownership projections for today. Check out our industry-leading DFS CFB projections for FanDuel. Looking for more CFB DFS picks for DraftKings and the best CFB DFS advice?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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