We have arrived at the finale of the college football season, and it couldn’t be a more exciting finish. We have undefeated Clemson facing off against undefeated LSU in a matchup that has everything. Clemson is the defending national champion with a future No. 1 pick at quarterback facing off against LSU, who has the Heisman Trophy winner and a soon-to-be No. 1 pick. This article is going to break down the game from a CFB betting perspective. Make sure to look out for the DFS breakdown which will go more in depth on the prices and options for Showdown. Let’s break down both teams and see if we can find any value in this betting market.
8 p.m. EST: Clemson vs. LSU -5.5 , O/U 68
Clemson
When you look at individual stats for players on Clemson, they don’t jump off the page, but there is a simple explanation for that. Clemson was so dominant against a cupcake schedule that the starters were resting in the fourth quarter of most games. Clemson scored 45 points per game while allowing only a shade over 10 points. They have extreme talent at every position, but the defense to me has more question marks despite the lofty numbers.
The offense for Clemson, however, has zero question marks as they returned the core that whooped Alabama in last year’s National Championship game. Trevor Lawrence had a slow start to the season, but he picked it up in the second half and hasn’t thrown an interception since mid-October. He also still has never lost as a college quarterback and with the weapons on the outside, it will be a huge ask for LSU to slow this passing attack.
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Clemson has two stud receivers in Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross and both have the ability to take over a game. Higgins is a 6-foot-4 junior who is a particularly difficult matchup in the red zone. Ross is just a sophomore, but the talent is there and last year, he exploded in the College Football Playoff with three touchdowns over the two games. LSU’s secondary allowed just 220 yards passing per game, but they will be tested like they haven’t been this year.
The other guy we have to mention is All-American running back Travis Etienne who quietly is as explosive as anyone in the country. He averaged 8.0 yards per carry and scored three times in Clemson’s win against Ohio State in the semifinal. His ability to catch the ball adds to the matchup problems and aside from Lawrence, Etienne may be the key to the Clemson offense.
LSU
Clemson may be crushing opponents, but LSU is the No. 1 team in the country and it is well deserved. They went undefeated in the SEC and faced multiple top-end teams during the stretch without any blemishes on the resume. I have never seen anyone make a leap quite like Joe Burrow did this year and it is certainly the obvious reason for the Tigers’ success.
Last year, Burrow had 16 touchdowns with five interceptions and rarely, if ever, flashed massive upside. Going into this season, LSU was looking for more, but what transpired I don’t think even they envisioned. Burrow comes into this game with 55 touchdowns and just six interceptions and that made him the obvious Heisman Trophy winner this season. He threw seven touchdowns in the semifinal against Oklahoma and the LSU offense appears to be unstoppable right now. Clemson sports the top scoring defense in the country, but like LSU’s defense, they haven’t seen a passing game even close to this caliber.
Burrow will be looking to an ensemble cast of contributors on the outside, but Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase have to lead the charge. Both have monster numbers on the season and if running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is healthy, that will put even more pressure on Clemson. Last week against Ohio State, Clemson struggled to stop the run at times with Buckeye back J.K. Dobbins going for 174 yards on just 18 carries. LSU may have a similar gameplan even if the bulk of their damage comes through the air.
The CFB Betting Plays
Travis Etienne Over 45.5 Receiving Yards -115
I mentioned that Etienne did a lot of damage through the air against Ohio State and that was only with a few catches. His explosiveness is a problem for any defense and I expect Clemson to get him involved in the passing game. While Etienne will not have a huge target share, if he can have around five receptions, that is enough opportunity to get over this number. The total sits at 68 so points will be at a premium and I think Etienne will have another big game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 149.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -125
On the LSU side, I already discussed Edwards-Helaire and his injury, but it looks like he will be fully back in action. He also can catch some balls and him being close to 100% is a major boost to the offense. There is still some risk that he is limited and this is a lofty number that is going to require a sizable workload to have a chance. If LSU wins the game and they lean on Edwards-Helaire late, that will help him. But there are plenty of scenarios where he does not get the opportunity.
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Clemson +5.5
As much as I would love to have a huge wager on a side here, it’s a difficult matchup with the quality of these teams. LSU answered every challenge this year and deserved to be that top seed in the playoffs. They made Oklahoma look like a high school team and Burrow is playing at a level I didn’t think was possible. On the other side, Clemson hasn’t lost in well over a year and is the defending national champion. Their quarterback has also never been beaten and has shown time and time again he is at his best on the big stage.
I lean to the dogs here simply because I have these teams in a virtual coin toss for who comes out on top. Five and a half isn’t a ton of points, but it makes a difference and Clemson showed their talent against an Ohio State team who many argued was the best in the country. If Clemson can slow Burrow even a little, or come up with a few timely turnovers, I think the dynasty will live on and Clemson will march into the 2020 season as the two-time defending national champion.
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Good Luck everyone!
