There are a ton of moving parts to this College Football season, but games are still kicking off each Saturday. Slates are being altered with teams having to postpone or cancel games due to COVID issues, but all we can do is breakdown the teams that remain on each slate. Now that the Big 10 is coming back we are going to have all the big time conferences playing ball soon enough. That begins this week with the SEC returning to the field adding a ton of big name programs to the schedule.
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For an in depth DFS breakdown make sure to check out Matt Gajewski’s Cheat Sheet which will help breakdown these teams in depth. Here is a breakdown of the best game of the day and some quick rapid fire rundowns of what type of slate we are dealing with.
Best Game on the Slate
Kentucky at Auburn -7.5
We dive right into conference play because of the COVID situation so the SEC teams get no warmups against inferior schools. This is going to create a lot of big time matchups from the start and we get that with 23rd ranked Kentucky against 8th ranked Auburn. Spread wise Auburn sits just north of a touchdown favorite and they will be much more secure under center this year with Sophomore Bo Nix back for another season.
Last year Nix started as a freshman and had his moments with 16 touchdowns thru the air and another 7 on the ground. He should be much better this year if the offensive line holds up as they lost a bunch of players from last years unit. On the outside the skill position players return and its really just a question of that offensive line for Auburn. Defensively the Tigers lost a few linebackers to opt outs and they only returned 5 starters to begin with, but the talent just reloads at a place like Auburn. Expect them to take a step back on the D-line after losing some top end players, but still be an effective unit overall.
On the other side Kentucky has sky high expectations after an 8-5 season last year and a bunch of key players returning. Defensively 7 starters return, and this is a balanced unit with no glaring weaknesses. Offensively is where the questions are as last year Kentucky turned to Lynn Bowden at QB and allowed the hybrid WR to run a high octane rushing attack instead of a traditional passing offense. The good news for Kentucky is that QB Terry Wilson will have one of the best offensive lines in the country protecting him and that is going to be a major factor in this game.
It may not be the most interesting talking point but controlling the line of scrimmage is where the money is made. Kentucky has a top end offensive line and they actually could have the advantage against an Auburn D-line which is something that is rarely said. I expect a low scoring grind it out affair and will grab the 7.5 points for Kentucky despite opening on the road in a tough spot.
Potential Upset
Kentucky ML +225
I already talked about this game as it featured two ranked opponents playing, but I do think this is the best spot for a big time upset on this slate. We still have a bunch of spreads that are -21+ type spreads and its hard to imagine any of those dogs winning outright even if they cover the spread. Kentucky has the defense and offensive line to handle Auburn and all road teams catch a huge break this year due to the restrictions with fans.
Auburn normally holds 87,000 fans and there wouldn’t be an empty seat for a game of this caliber. Tomorrow they are expected to have only upwards of 20,000 and that will make a gigantic difference for road teams hoping to emerge with a win. Per OddsShopper we have money lines sitting at +225 across the industry and I will take some stabs with Kentucky pulling the outright upset.
The spread sits at 7.5 points for the home dogs in this spot and I do think UCF could be on upset alert. The fact that Georgia Tech already played a competitive game is a big boost and they are back at home for this contest. UCF has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but on a slate with mostly massive favorites this is one of the few spots we could see a underdog win straight up.
Biggest Mismatch
Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -30.5
Usually Alabama is the one who has spreads sitting north of four touchdowns in conference play, but this week that award goes to Texas A&M. They sit at 30.5 point favorite at home against a Vanderbilt team who has a ton of questions to answer on the offensive side. Last year they only threw 10 passing TD’s and none of those players return so finding a reliable QB is priority one. The one good thing for Vandy is they return all 11 starters on defense, but it wont make much of a difference against a team like A&M. Expect QB Kellen Mond to have limited issues moving the ball up and down the field and this game should easily be over by the 4th quarter.
Favorite Bet            Â
West Virginia at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State -6.5
We got to the BIG 12 here with West Virginia heading into Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State. Vegas has this spread sitting at 6.5 points, but there is a gigantic question heading into this game that will determine a lot. In the Tulsa game last week OK State quarterback Spencer Sanders was injured, and he is still questionable with that ankle injury. Him not playing would be a major boost to West Virginia, but that is something to monitor closer to kickoff.
Last week when Sanders got injured the Oklahoma State offense was unable to generate anything and almost lost as 24 point favorites. However, if we dig into the box score we see something that is hugely important in terms of the backup QBs. Originally Oklahoma State went to Ethan Bullock who generated only 41 passing yards and threw an INT. When things were getting tight late the Cowboys decided to make the move to freshman Shane Illingworth who moved them down the field in one drive for the decisive touchdown that iced the game. Illingworth finished 4-5 for 74 yards and there is no question he was more effective in generating offense. Seeing that makes me feel comfortable backing this 6.5 point spread without knowing Sanders’ status as Oklahoma State seems to have a competent backup ready to go if needed.
Outside of that QB situation the rest of Oklahoma State is loaded, and RB Chuba Hubbard is a problem for opposing defenses despite the quiet game last week. West Virginia would have been a double digit underdog in this spot without the QB situation and I think we actually are stealing a bunch of value on something that might be overblown. Oklahoma State at home coming off that bad showing against Tulsa is a perfect spot for them to really be sharp and I’ll gladly lay the 6.5 here.
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