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College Football: Week 11 CFB DFS Picks & Game Breakdowns | 11/14

Matt Gajewski



Week 11 CFB DFS Picks College Football Matchups Breakdown DraftKings FanDuel Lineups

Week 11 of the College Football season is among us. Each week, I’ll take a deep dive into the matchups and break down the games from a CFB DFS prospective. From the data, we can pinpoint the games that we see as being the top fantasy-point producers on the slate and who should be in line for the majority of the offensive output. Thus, leading us to finding the best CFB DFS picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups.

Be sure to catch Matt Gajewski and Ben Rasa on the Awesemo College Football Betting and CFB DFS Strategy Show every Saturday morning on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.

Week 11 CFB DFS Picks & Matchup Breakdowns | DraftKings + FanDuel

CFB DFS Matchup: Miami vs Virginia Tech

Miami CFB DFS Picks (33 Team Total)

Offense – Manny Diaz turned to Rhett Lashlee to take over the Hurricanes’ offense. Last year, Lashlee coordinated an SMU offense that ran 80.9 plays per game (third) and passed 49.24% of the time (51st). This allowed them to rank fifth in points per game (41.8). However, Miami’s offense has played slower than expected to start 2020. They’re only averaging 68.4 plays per game, with a 55.1% pass rate. Miami’s offensive line also looks improved after ranking 109th in run blocking and 110th in pass blocking last year. This team returned all five starters and also added Houston Cougars transfer Jarrid Williams, who started 19 games in his career at Houston. Florida Gators transfer Issiah Walker also joined the program.

D’Eriq King ($9,300) – Priced in the upper echelon of quarterbacks, King certainly deserves his elevated salary. The Houston transfer currently averages 261 passing yards on 32.4 attempts per game. King also remains one of the premier dual threat signal-callers on the slate with 406 cumulative rushing yards. Virginia Tech’s defense plays well, but King can still exploit the Hockies in both phases.

Cam’Ron Harris ($5,900) – With King siphoning off a significant number of carries on an already pass-heavy team, Harris seldom returns value on his price in the mid-tier. Harris averages a mere 13.6 opportunities per game with 59.6 rushing yards.

Mike Harley ($6,900) – Slot specialist Harley currently leads Miami with 51 targets (22.5% share). Playing an increased role, Harley also puts up 71 yards per game, despite his semi-limited skillset.

Mark Pope ($4,600) – Second on Miami in targets (40), Pope plays outside for Miami. He tied for a team-leading 10 targets last week. His 47.1 yards per game ranks third on Miami.

Dee Wiggins ($4,000) – Wiggins also tied for a team-leading 10 targets last week. Wiggins appears to have eclipsed Pope as the team’s second receiver. Wiggins ran a route on 96% of dropbacks, compared to 83% for Pope. Wiggins also averages 5.8 targets over Miami’s last four game, compared to 5.5 for Pope.

Brevin Jordan ($4,600) & Will Mallory ($4,400) – Jordan has been dealing with a long-term shoulder injury. Manny Daiz noted that Jordan had finally healed enough to play. However, Jordan subsequently missed last week’s game due to COVID protocols. Brevin Jordan is the team’s primary tight end when healthy, but Mallory provides a suitable replacement. Mallory received eight targets last week in place of Jordan.

Virginia Tech CFB DFS Picks (35.5 Team Total)

Offense – Justin Fuente remains head coach of Virginia Tech and Brad Cornelsen remains his offensive coordinator. Playing with mostly dual threats, Virginia Tech threw the ball 37.7% of the time last year (120th), while running 70.4 plays per game (71st). So far this year, the Hokies average 67.9 plays per game, with a 35.8% pass rate. Still, they managed solid efficiency, scoring at least 38 in every game this season except Wake Forest.

Hendon Hooker ($9,700) – The premier dual threat on the Week 11 main slate, Hooker already has 515 rushing yards this season. This comes with Hooker missing a couple of games to start 2020. Hooker remains a threat to hit the 100-yard rushing bonus on a weekly basis, while adding 174 passing yards per game.

Khalil Herbert ($8,700) – Herbert left last week’s game immediately with a hamstring injury. Virginia Tech has been quiet on his status, but hamstring injuries typically don’t improve in a matter of days. When healthy, Herbert is one of the most efficient backs in the country, averaging 133.8 rushing yards per game.

Raheem Blackshear ($3,400) – Rutgers transfer, Blackshear rotated between running back and slot receiver prior to last week’s game. With Herbert injured, Blackshear might be the best raw DFS play on the entire slate. He handled nine carries and six targets in Herbert’s place. While Jalen Houston likely plays a larger role without Herbert, Blackshear stands to see 15+ touches in that circumstance as well.

Tayvion Robinson ($4,600) – Robinson’s 34 targets lead Virginia Tech (23.9%). However, with Tre Turner returning to full health, Robinson’s roll continues to decline. He averages just 3.8 targets per game over his last four contests despite running a route on nearly every dropback, This makes him difficult to trust.

Tre Turner ($4,500) – The aforementioned Turner led Virginia Tech in targets each of the past two weeks. He also leads the Hokies in outright receiving yards at 344. He looks like the superior stacking option with Hooker in this spot.

James Mitchell ($5,000) – Tight end Mitchell missed last week’s game and remains questionable here, but he led the team in targets prior to last week’s absence. Virginia Tech’s low-volume pass attack seldom supports more than one pass catcher on a weekly basis, but Mitchell will play a major role here.

CFB DFS Matchup: Indiana vs Michigan State

Indiana CFB DFS Picks (30 Team Total)

Offense – Tom Allen has coached Indiana since 2016. This year, he promoted tight ends coach Nick Sheridan to offensive coordinator. This is the first play calling gig for Sheridan. So far, Indiana runs 71.3 plays, while passing 54.2% of the time. Indiana returned three starters on the offensive line this year.

Michael Penix ($7,200) – Initially recruited to Indiana as a dual-threat passer, Michael Penix has developed significantly as a passer. Penix averages 250 passing yards per game on a healthy 37.3 attempts per game. Interestingly, Penix’s dual threat ability has only amounted to six cumulative rushing yards. Penix will be a weekly consideration until his appropriately rises.

Stevie Scott ($7,200) – Indiana’s feature back, Scott has played in the shadow of Penix and the pass game to start 2020. However, Scott has 20-plus carries in all three games this year. With a projected lopsided game scrip here, Scott makes sense as a contrarian play off some of the other popular running backs on the slate.

Whop Philyor ($6,100) – After recording 1,000 receiving yards last year, Philyor also leads Indiana in targets (34) and receiving yards (243). Philyor saw a ridiculous 18 targets last week. He plays primarily out of the slot, but Indiana rotates their receivers often. Just over half of Philyor’s receiver production came out of the slot.

Ty Fryfogle ($4,700) – Breakout receiver Fryfogle’s 26 targets rank second on Indiana (24.8%). He also averages 74.7 receiving yards per game as Indiana’s down-field threat. Fryfogle also averages 8.7 targets per game, making him a standout price-adjusted play.

Peyton Hendershot ($4,300) – Athletic tight end Hendershot has back-to-back seven target games. Hendershot occasionally moves into the slot, creating receiving mismatches for Indiana. Hendershot is a massive 6-4, 250 pound receiving threat for Indiana, who recorded 52 catches for 622 yards last year.

Miles Marshall ($3,800) – Marshall missed Week 2 for Indiana, but he has five targets in each of his healthy games. He ran a route on 90% of Indiana’s dropbacks last week. He remains a solid dart throw to target below $4k.

Michigan State CFB DFS Picks (22.5 Team Total)

Offense – Mel Tucker comes over from Colorado to take control of Michigan State. His offensive coordinator is Jay Johnson, who coordinated his offense at Colorado. He ran 72.3 plays per game (53rd) and passed 49.8% of the time (49th). The Spartans are currently running 75.7 plays per game and passing 52% of the time. Michigan State returned five players with starting experience, despite losing their right tackle Jordan Reid to opt out. They also lost reserve Justin Stevens.

Rocky Lombardi ($6,000) – Lombardi has shown significant growth after a number of tumultuous spot starts for Brian Lewerke over the previous two years. Lombardi currently averages 37.7 pass attempts per game with 289 yards. Lewerke already has a pair of 300-yard games under his belt, giving him upside to hit the passing bonus on DraftKings.

Jordan Simmons ($4,100) – Even with Elijah Collins falling just short of 1,000 rushing yards last year, Michigan moved forward with Jordan Simmons as their primary ball carrier. With that said, Connor Heyward functions as the primary pass-catching back. Despite early struggles, Collins also still mixes in for carries. This renders the backfield and unusable timeshare.

Jalen Nailor ($5,300) – Nailor’s 29 targets (27.6% share) easily lead Michigan State. Impressively, Nailor has racked up 271 receiving yards on this volume, making him an excellent play in this price range.

Ricky White ($4,500) – Impressive freshman White stands 6-1, 175-pounds. He was initially recruited as a three-star prospect and the No. 70 wide receiver in the 2020 class. White now has eight targets in consecutive games.

Jayden Reed ($4,800) – Western Michigan transfer Reed has cooled considerably since his hot start in Week 1. Reed remains Michigan State’s primary slot receiver and ranks second on the team with 20 targets. Reed still led the Spartans with a route on 92% of dropbacks last week.

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CFB DFS Matchup: Middle Tennessee State vs Marshall

Middle Tennessee State CFB DFS Picks (16 Team Total)

Offense – Rick Stockstill is the longtime head coach of Middle Tennessee State. Tony Franklin coordinates the offense with five years of experience for Middle Tennessee State. So far, Middle Tennessee State is running 73.3 plays per game, with a 51.1% pass rate. Marshall will be the toughest opponent Middle Tennessee State has finished this year, but they’re still scored 30-plus points in three consecutive games.

Asher O’Hara ($6,600) – After rushing for 1,000 yards last year and leading Middle Tennessee State in that category, O’Hara already has 476 yards on the ground this year. Importantly, O’Hara has shown improvements as a passer with 216 yards per game on just 32 pass attempts. Despite the improvements, O’Hara arguably draws his most difficult matchup to date here. Price keeps him an outside consideration in DFS.

Chaton Mobley ($4,600) – After cameoing as a slot receiver earlier this year, Mobley has returned to his true position at running back. With O’Hara functioning as the primary ball carrier, Mobley averages just 10 touches per game and 42.6 rushing yards. Both Mobley and change-of-pace back Jayy McDonald are out of play.

Jarrin Pierce ($3,800) – Middle Tennessee’s target leader, Pierce currently averages 8.7 targets per game for the Blue Raiders. Pierce plays more of a possession-style receiver, averaging 64.4 receiving yards per game on his excellent volume.

CJ Windham ($4,900) – Middle Tennessee’s second-most targeted receiver, Windham popped up for and eight-target game last week. Windham only averages 39.5 receiving yards per game this year, but his 7.3 targets per game in his last four contests make him an emerging play within the offense.

Yusuf Ali ($4,100) – Marshall has now missed two games and remains without a timetable for return. This allowed Yusuf Ali to average six targets per game in his place. Ali is the true deep threat in this offense, averaging 68.4 yards per game on limited volume. Still, Ali only ran a route on 66% of drop backs last week.

Jaylin Lane ($3,000) – For those looking at pure punt plays, Lane ran a route on 79% of Middle Tennessee’s drop backs last week. This playing time hasn’t translated to volume, but he plays a lot.

Marshall CFB DFS Picks (39.5 Team Total)

Offense – Doc Holiday is the long-time head coach of Marshall. Tim Cramsey enters his third season as Marshall’s offensive coordinator. Marshall sits at 6-0, running 68 plays per game with a 40.3% pass rate. They draw a pathetic Middle Tennessee State run defense that allows 247 rushing yards per game.

Grant Wells ($8,900) – Red-shirt freshman Wells has performed well in his first season as Marshall’s signal-caller. He currently averages 223 passing yards per game on just 25.7 attempts. Marshall continues to function as a run-first team, limiting Well’s opportunities. Wells offers some rushing upside with 116 cumulative yards. However, his limited volume hurts here at an elevated price point.

Brenden Knox ($8,500) – Middle Tennessee allows nearly 250 rushing yards per game, setting up Knox for another standout performance. Knox averages 23 opportunities and 112 rushing yards per game. These number may be depressed after Marshall participated in a number of blowouts already this season. Knox remains in that top tier of running back targets.

Xavier Gaines ($3,900) – Marshall has dealt with numerous injuries to pass catchers, including Willie Johnson, Talik Keaton, and Broc Thompson. All were expected to play roles for this offense, but at least the target distribution has narrowed. Athletic tight end Gaines remains the top option regardless of injury. He has 29 targets this year and occasionally handled carries out of the backfield. His 231 yards also lead the team.

Corey Gammage ($4,700) – Finally receiving playing time, Gammage averages a team-high 6.5 targets over Marshall’s last four games. He has target counts of 11 and six in his two most recent games.

Artie Henry ($6,400) – Another player in an elevated role due to injury, Henry also averages six targets per game over Marshall’s last four. With Willie Johnson ($3,300) back last week, Johnson ran a route on 86%of drop backs, while Henry’s route rate fell to 63%.

Broc Thompson ($5,300) & Talik Keaton ($3,900) – The statuses of Thompson and Keaton remain unknown. Their return would likely render this unit an extended time share.

CFB DFS Matchup: Wake Forest vs North Carolina

Wake Forest CFB DFS Picks (27.5 Team Total)

Offense – Dave Clawson remains Wake Forest’s head coach and Warren Ruggiero remains his offensive coordinator. On par with their totals a season ago, Wake Forest currently averages 78.8 plays per game and a 43.4% pass rate. Wake Forest hasn’t passed as much as usual because of back-to-back blowout wins against Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Virginia Tech in particular depresses the play volume of opposing teams. North Carolina plays excellent defense, potentially depressing Wake Forest here.

Sam Hartman ($5,500) – Missing a bit of time earlier this season, Hartman’s passing number come in a bit depressed. Hartman averages just 209 passing yards and 25 attempts per game. Both numbers likely come in higher with a full complement of snaps. Unfortunately, Hartman offers no dual threat ability and draws a tough matchup against a strong North Carolina defense. However, his cheap price keeps him in consideration.

Kenneth Walker ($7,400) – Highly sensitive to game script, Walker and his counterpart Beal-Smith project to handle reduced workloads today. Making matters worse, both will split work. Walker handles a slightly larger opportunity share, but he has just one target this year. That makes his role in negative game scripts tough to trust.

Christian Beal-Smith ($4,200) – Beal-smith holds the same concerns as Walker with just two targets this year. He also has less opportunity overall, making him an equally risky asset. However, Beal-Smith is priced in the punt range, making him a more attractive target in a poor game environment.

Jaquarii Roberson ($4,900) – Shockingly still running a route on just 55% of dropbacks for Wake Forest, Roberson continues to lead the team with 41 targets (25%). Roberson easily leads the team with 490 yards, besting Donavon Greene with 290 yards.

Donavon Greene ($4,100) – Wake Forest uses Greene as a down-field threat, leading to many unrealized air yards. Green still ranks second on the team in overall targets (32). Green also ran a route on 100% of dropbacks, well ahead of Roberson.

Taylor Morin ($3,800) – AT Perry reappeared on Wake Forest’s depth chart, muddying the wide receiver position a bit. Without Perry last week, Morin led Wake Forest with 11 targets. That massive outing put Morin third on the team in targets and receiving yards. Similar to Roberson, Morin only ran a route on 45% of Wake Forest’s drop backs. Nolan Groulx’s route rate came in at 87%.

North Carolina CFB DFS Picks (41 Team Total)

Offense – Mack Brown returned as North Carolina’s head coach last year and did not disappoint. However, the offensive resurgence likely had more to do with Phil Longo’s air raid concepts. Longo’s offense ran 78.3 plays per game (8th) and passed 48.1% of the time last season. They also racked up 31.2 points per game (39th). So far this season, they’re running 74.6 plays per game and passing just 43.1% of the time. This likely has to do with an improved defense and a strong offensive line. North Carolina returned four starters on the offensive line, despite losing fourth-round draft pick Charlie Heck.

Sam Howell ($8,000) – After a standout freshman season, Howell doubled down on his early career efficiency. One of the most efficient running backs in the country, Howell averages 293 passing yards per game on just 29 pass attempts. Howell also offers limited dual threat ability, keeping his ceiling intact. Howell, remains a weekly consideration in an explosive North Carolina offense.

Javonte Williams ($9,500) – The most efficient running back in the country, Williams averages 113.6 rushing yards per game, despite falling below 20 carries in four straight games. Williams benefits from excellent offensive line play, an explosive offense, and a solid role as a pass catcher. While he carries immense opportunity cost, Wake Forest’s defense allows nearly 1,000 rushing yards per game.

Michael Carter ($6,100) – Also a highly efficient back, Carter averages 105 rushing yards per game. Interesting Carter’s 120 total opportunities rank just four behind Williams over the course of the season. Carter actually has more targets than Williams this year as well (20-17). Carter enters Week 11 with a depressed price point. He comes in as one of the best plays on the slate, but expect more ownership to side with Carter over Williams.

Dyami Brown ($7,100) – UNC funnels most of their receiving production through two receivers, with Brown leading the group. Brown’s 58 targets, equate to a 29.3% target share and 95.1 receiving yards per game. Brown is one of the top boundary receivers in the country after eclipsing 1,000 yards last year.

Dazz Newsome ($4,300) – Slot specialist Newsome started 2020 slowly after notching 1,000 yards in 2019. Newsome continues to run a route on nearly every dropback. Last week, that finally led to an eight-target game. Newsome still enters the bargain consideration here.

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CFB DFS Matchup: Penn State vs Nebraska

Penn State CFB DFS Picks (29.5 Team Total)

Offense – James Franklin is the head coach of Penn State, with Kirk Ciarrocca coming over as offensive coordinator. Last year, Minnesota ran 70.6 plays per game (70th) and 38.8% of the time (115th). So far this year, Penn State is running 83.3 plays per game, with a 54% pass rate. That will happen when they start out 0-3. Look for Penn State to slow a bit and embrace run-heavy schemes when playing with a lead.

Sean Clifford ($8,300) – Despite a few calls for a quarterback change, Penn State’s problems run deeper than Clifford. Clifford has played reasonably well for a team constantly trailing in games. Clifford averages 286 passing yards per game on 41 attempts. He also has 150 rushing yards through three games. Clifford’s biggest issue remains poor pocket presence. He has already taken 15 sacks, limiting some of his upside as a rusher.

Devyn Ford ($5,400) – Last week’s chalk bust, Ford split carries directly with Caziah Holmes. This is a low volume rushing attack featuring two running backs and a mobile quarterback. Penn State enters the week as a slight favorite, but none of the runner project for a significant workload.

Jahan Dotson ($8,800) – The slate’s most expensive receiver, Dotson has benefitted immensely from Penn State’s negative game script. Dotson averages 11.3 targets per game with 120.3 receiving yards. The 30.1% target share makes him deserving of the elevated price. However, Penn State enters this contest as a slight favorite, perhaps contributing to depressed volume.

Pat Freiermuth ($4,600) – NFL-ready tight end Freiermuth remains Penn State’s second pass-catching option. Freiermuth’s 27 targets equate to a 24% target share and a healthy 65.7 receiving yards per game. He continues to provide a cheap access point to this exciting offense.

Parker Washington ($4,400) – Running as Penn State’s second wide receiver opposite Dotson, Washington popped up for a 14-target game last week. Washington’s 155 yards rank third on Penn State, but he continues to run a route on 85% of Penn State’s dropbacks.

Nebraska CFB DFS Picks (27 Team Total)

Offense – Scott Front continues to coach Nebraska with limited success. Losing their offensive coordinator this offseason, Scott Frost hired retread, failed signal caller Matt Lubick. After running horrific offenses at Washington, Lubick took 2019 off of football. The time off didn’t help. Nebraska runs 74 plays per game with a 46.6% pass rate. Nebraska returned every offensive line this offseason, including NFL hopefuls Brendon Jaimes and Matt Farniok.

Adrian Martinez ($5,800) & Luke McCaffrey ($5,200) – While both Martinez and McCaffrey offer tantalizing dual threat ability, both signal callers will see playing time as Nebraska finds a starter. McCaffrey has looked like the better passer on less volume. Neither can be used until Nebraska makes a commitment.

Dedrick Mills ($5,700) – Mills handles a vast majority of Nebraska’s backfield work, but Ronald Thompkins missed last weeks game. Without Thompkins, Mills handled 19 carries. Mills has played inefficient football and both signal-callers steal carries. Mills remains a dart throw at the running back position, if Thompkins misses another game.

Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,000) – Technically the top receiver for Nebraska, Robinson continues to suffer through inefficient quarterback play. Robinson doubled as a running back last year, but he has played the slot so far this year. Robinson has just 82 yards on 13 total targets through two games. Rumors out of Nebraska suggest he might handle a few carries per game moving forward, but we haven’t seen that to this point as Nebraska tries to force him into a slot-only role.

Marcus Fleming ($3,900) – Fleming looks like Nebraska’s second receiver, but the Cornhuskers run a wide receiver rotation. Fleming only ran a route on 52% of drop backs last week. Still, Fleming missed Week 1 and immediately saw seven targets on his return. It’s possible his role grows throughout the year.

Travis Vokolek ($3,000) – Tight end Vokolek actually runs the second-most routes on the team. Last week, he notched an 80% route rate, leading to five targets.

CFB DFS Matchup: TCU vs West Virginia

TCU CFB DFS Picks (21.5 Team Total)

Offense – Gary Patterson is the head coach of TCU. Sonny Cumbie will again be his offensive coordinator. TCU plays very fast. So far this year, TCU is running 76 plays per game and passing 45.6% of the time. TCU has faced a few slow teams recently including Baylor and Kansas State. Last year, they ran over 80 plays per game.

Max Duggan ($6,800) – Questionable as a passer, rushing touchdowns continue to fuel Duggan’s box scores. The second-year signal caller does offer legit dual threat ability with 329 cumulative yards, despite taking 16 sacks. Still Duggan only throws 190 yards per game on 27 attempts, making him unlikely to register 300-yard bonuses in the pass game.

Zach Evans ($3,800) – Five-star freshman, Evans continues to see his opportunities in the run game increase at the expense of Darwin Barlow, Kendre Miller, Daimarqua Foster, and Emari Demercado. When healthy, all backs will rotate, making this a brutal time-share.

Taye Barber ($5,600) – TCU lost Spielman for the season, potentially narrowing targets. Even without Spielman in recent weeks, Barber averages just five targets per game. His route rate has also dropped in three straight weeks down to 57% last week. Barbers 47.7 yards per game also leave plenty of production on the table.

Quentin Johnston ($4,400) – Johnston’s 24 targets equate to a 13.6% target share. Johnston runs the most routes at 93% in TCU’s most recent game, but it hasn’t led to production.

Blair Conwright ($3,300) – Conwright’s 22 targets equate to a 12.5% target share. Similar to Barber, his routes have also fallen in three straight weeks.

West Virginia CFB DFS Picks (24 TT)

Offense – West Virginia retains Neal Brown as head coach for his second season. They moved former offensive coordinator Matt Moore to assistant head coach, while bringing in former Penn State pass game coordinator Gerad Parker to coordinate the offense. West Virginia returns three of five starting offensive linemen. They’re replacing both tackle positions, but they have some continuity here. They’re currently running 81.3 plays per game and passing 55.3% of the time.

Jarret Doege ($6,100) – Pure pocket passer, Doege averages 40 pass attempts per game for 284 yards. However, Doege’s upside is somewhat limited due to his poor rushing ability. Doege has -62 rushing yards accumulated though 13 sacks. Doege will flirt with 300-yard bonuses through the air, but he absolutely needs it for a tournament winning score due to his negative rushing.

Leddie Brown ($7,900) – Unbeknownst to my lineups, Brown played a limited role last week with injury. West Virginia is continuing to evaluate Brown ahead of Saturday’s game. When healthy, Brown is one of the best running backs in the country. He averages four targets per game and 24 opportunities overall. Behind Brown, Alec Sinkfield would step into a voluminous role. He is the only other running back that has touched the ball in West Virginia’s last three games.

Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($4,700) – The whimsical decision making from West Virginia’s coaches lead to a 63% route rate for X-receiver Ford-Wheaton. This mark ranked second on West Virginia last week.

Winston Wright ($5,500) – Playing West Virginia’s H-receiver, Wright’s routes hover between 45% and 65% on a weekly basis.

Sean Ryan ($3,300) – With Sam James ($3,900) relegated to a rotational receiver/backup role, Ryan has emerged as West Virginia’s top Z-receiver. Last week, he ran a route on 55% of drop backs.

TJ Simmons ($3,700) – West Virginia’s other slot receiver, Simmons popped up for a 69% route after easing back in two weeks ago with an injury.

CFB DFS Matchup: USC vs Arizona

CFB DFS Analysis: USC (33.5 Team Total)

Offense – Clay Helton enters his fifth season as USC’s head coach. His offensive coordinator is Graham Harrell. This is Harrell’s second season and last year they ran 71.8 plays per game (59th) and passed 58.1% of the time (7th). These numbers remain important after USC shootout with Arizona State where they ran 98 plays and passed 59.2% of the time. USC shuffled their offensive line after losing Austin Jackson and his counterpart on the right side. Still, they returned three starters.

Kedon Slovis ($8,600) – Sophomore sensation, Slovis threw 55 times for 372 yards last week. USC had to rely on Slovis late after they curiously took a run-first approach to start last week’s game. Slovis offers modest dual threat ability and will flirt with 300 yards on a weekly basis. This makes him a continues value despite a rising price.

Markese Stepp ($4,400) – Stepp led a committee consisting of Stephen Carr ($6,200) and Vavae Malepeai ($4,900). For some reason Stepp is the cheapest of the bunch, making him the clear target in a less than ideal situation. Stepp turned in an inefficient 50 yards on 14 carries. This time-share could revert to any of these backs at any point as well.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,700) – St. Brown ran a route on 98% of drop backs and saw a team-leading 12 targets for 100 yards. After running in the slot last year, St. Brown won as a boundary receiver in Week 1. He is the top stacking option with Slovis.

Tyler Vaughns ($5,200) – Vaughns ran a route on 84% of drop backs and saw the second-most targets on the team. However, Vaunghns was significantly out-produced by sophomore Drake London. Playing a role as a possession receiver, Vaughns only managed 44 yards while losing a fumble.

Drake London ($5,800) – London functioned as USC’s primary slot receiver and ran a route on 98% of drop backs. He also turned seven targets into 105 receiving yards. London might be USC’s most athletic player. He also plays varsity basketball for the Trojans.

Bru McCoy ($4,000) – Former five-star recruit, McCoy ran a route on 41% of drop backs. This led to four targets and 45 receiving yards. McCoy is just a dart throw.

Jude Wolfe ($3,200) — Tight end Wolfe ran a route on 51% of drop backs, including 20 routes from the slot. This is only notable, because he ran more routes than Bru McCoy.

Arizona CFB DFS Picks (26.5 Team Total)

Offense – Kevin Sumlin is entering his third season as head coach of Arizona. Noel Mazzone is the offensive coordinator and he has been there for the same length of time. Arizona passed 51.3% of the time last year (40th) and ran Arizona ran 75.5 plays per game (17th). Arizona’s offensive line should be a strength after they returned eight players who started at least one game last year. Donovan Laie and Josh McCauley are excellent returners on that unit.

Grant Gunnell ($5,700) – Playing over Khalil Tate at times last year, Gunnell sits in the driver’s seat of an efficient Arizona passing attack. Gunnell has completed 65.2% of his career passes for 8 yards per attempt. He turned in 14 cumulative rushing yards in limited action, but that keeps him viable in stacks. Utah played strong defense a season ago, but their program will be rebuilding.

Gary Brightwell ($5,200) – With JJ Taylor off the NFL, power back Brightwell looks likely to lead Arizona in touches this year. Brightwell stands 6-1, 218-pounds and complimented Taylor as a short-yardage back. Brightwell still played efficient football last year averaging 5.9 yards per carry, while catching four balls for 59 receiving yards.

Boobie Curry ($3,300) – Wide receiver remains a mess for Arizona after they rotated six receivers last year. They also complicated matters by listing Curry as a starter after he received just nine targets last year. He is a dart throw based on the listed depth chart.

Brian Casteel ($4,000) – Casteel’s 50 returning targets lead Arizona. However, he played a possession receiver role with just 397 yards last year.

Jamarye Joiner ($4,700) – Arizona’s projected slot receiver, Joiner actually provides the team’s big play ability. Last year, Joiner turned 45 targets into 552 receiving yards.

Tayvian Cunningham ($3,600) – Arizona listed a number of producers last year as backups, potentially pointing to more rotating at wide receiver in 2020. Cunningham had 46 targets last year. Drew Dixon and Stanley Berryhill has 24 and 29 targets, respectively. All were listed among Arizona’s backups.

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CFB DFS Matchup: Notre Dame vs Boston College

Notre Dame CFB DFS Picks (31 Team Total)

Offense – To start the year, Notre Dame has run 74.3 plays per game with a 39.8% pass rate. That will happen when facing Duke, USF, Florida State, Louisville, and a Kenny Pickett-less Pittsburgh. However, their most recent victory against Clemson reaffirmed the strength of this team. They returned all five offensive line starters and it shows so far. New offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has focused on the run to start the year. Rees has coached QBs with Notre Dame since 2017 and he notably developed former three-star Ian Book in to the suitable starter he is today. In competitive games they should pass more as they showed against Clemson. It appears bookmakers overrate Boston College in this matchup.

Ian Book ($7,000) – Generally functioning as a game manager, Book averages 27 pass attempts per game for 219 yards. While Notre Dame unleashed Book against Clemson, they typically prefer to rely on the run game. Book offers modest dual threat ability with 280 cumulative yards. However, this makes Book unlikely to hit either bonus when Notre Dame enters the week as a decent favorite.

Kyren Williams ($8,900) – Notre Dame’s feature back, Williams averages 21.1 touches per game and 105 yards on the ground. Williams also plays a solid pass-catching role with three targets per game. Volume and strong offensive line play make Williams a strong play on a weekly basis.

Michael Mayer ($3,700) – Freshman standout, Mayer continues to work ahead of Tommy Tremble in the pass game. Not only that, but he is now tied for a team-leading 29 targets after starting the year as a rotational player. He ran a route on 85% of drop backs last week. His counterpart Tremble only ran a route on 49% of drop backs.

Javon McKinley ($4,200) – McKinely suffered a head injury at the end of Notre Dame’s victory over Clemson. Brian Kelly noted that McKinley should be okay for this tilt. McKinley’s route rate was 87% in Notre Dame’s win.

Bennett Skowronek ($4,800) – Northwestern transfer Skowronek will function as Notre Dame’s second receiver. He ran a route on 89% of drop backs.

Avery Davis ($3,900) – As Lenzy continues to rehab a hamstring injury, Notre Dame’s wide receiver room has narrowed. Davis functioned as the third option with a 49% route rate.

Boston College CFB DFS Picks (19.5 Team Total)

Offense – Jeff Halfey is the brand-new head coach of Boston College. He is a defensive minded coach from Ohio State and he brings in Frank Cignetti as his offensive coordinator, who most recently coached quarterbacks with the Packers. Boston College currently runs 72.4 plays per game while passing 51.8% of the time. Initially thought to be a concern, Boston College only returned one starting offensive lineman. Still, Notre Dame’s defense remains as stout as they come. Boston College remains hyper-sensitive to game script, evidenced by their run-heavy approach against Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Syracuse in their most recent games.

Phil Jurkovec ($5,400) – Former Notre Dame quarterback will get his chance at revenge here. Jurkoec averages 35 pass attempts per game for 260 yards. Jurkovec has improved drastically of late, but he still takes too many sacks. He posses dual threat ability but only has 96 cumulative rushing yards due to 20 sacks. Notre Dame plays excellent defense, but Jurkovec’s skill set has gotten it done against superior opponents including Clemson.

David Bailey ($4,600) – Boston College remains hyper-sensitive to game script, meaning Bailey sees less workout when Boston College trails. Bailey also splits time evenly with Travis Levy ($3,900). Levy contes in a bit cheaper, making him a more attractive play in a horrible game environment.

Zay Flowers ($5,500) – Boston College’s top wide receiver, Flowers leads the team with 73 targets and averages 75 receiving yards per game. He also handles a few carries out of the backfield every week, adding to his upside in stacks.

Hunter Long ($5,100) – Hyper-athletic tight end, Long will function as Jurkovec’s WR2. Long already has 67 targets this year (25% share) and averages a healthy 62.5 receiving yards per game. He also makes sense in Jurkovec stacks or as a run back to the Notre Dame side of this game.

Jaelen Gill ($3,600) – Ohio State transfer, Gill has a 60% route rate each of the last two weeks. This has only led to four total targets, but his presence on the field deserves mention.

CFB DFS Matchup: Louisville vs Virginia

Louisville CFB DFS Picks (31.5 Team Total)

Offense – Scott Satterfield enters his second season as head coach, along with offensive coordinator Dwayne Ledford. So far this year, they’ve run 68.1 plays per game with a 46.8% pass rate. They are a bit pass heavy after throwing just 37.7% of the time last year and running 70.9 plays per game. This is influenced by their losing ACC record. Their low plays per game is also influenced by a 45-play outing against Notre Dame earlier this season.

Malik Cunningham ($8,100) – Quietly one of the more efficient quarterbacks in college football, Cunningham averages 249 passing yards on just 29 attempts per game. Cunningham also creates with his legs. He currently has 220 rushing yards despite taking 22 sacks this year. He is a solid consideration in the mid-price range with Virginia allowing over 300 passing yards per game to opposing signal callers.

Javian Hawkins ($8,300) – Finally reaching and appropriate price point, Hawkins averages 21.3 touches per game and 116 yards on the ground. Interesting, Hawkins receiving role has increased in recent weeks. The feature back averages 3.8 targets game over his last four contests. He is still in play based on volume.

Tutu Atwell ($6,500) – Dynamic slot receiver, Atwell continues to function as Cunningham’s top receiving weapon. Atwell’s 60 targets (31.9%) easily lead the team, while he averages 75.4 receiving yards per game. His is a solid target.

Dez Fitzpatrick ($4,400) – Fitzpatrick ran a route on 87% of Louisville’s drop backs. Braden Smith ($3,300) and Justin Marshall ($3,000) only ran routes on 64% and 44% of drop backs respectively. This makes Fitzpatrick the only other viable stacking option outside of Atwell.

Virginia CFB DFS Picks (35 Team Total)

Offense – Bronco Mendenhall remains head coach of Virginia. Robert Anae remains the offensive coordinator. Last year, Virginia passed 56.3% of the time (14th), while running 71.6 plays per game (61st). So far this year, Virginia runs 82.2 plays per game with a 53.8% pass rate. Virginia also returned all five starting offensive linemen and even a couple more with starting experience. This sets up well against a Louisville defense allowing 201 rushing yards per game.

Brennan Armstrong ($6,500) – Armstong has been dealing with a lower body injury. He will allegedly wear a knee brace during the game. The knee brace may affect his ability to rush the ball, which is important. Rushing is a huge part of Armstrong’s game with 287 cumulative yards on the ground this season. Luckily Virginia plays an up-tempo, pass-heavy scheme, which should create volume for Armstrong through the air.

Wayne Taulapapa ($4,700) – A perennial under-producer, Taulapapa averages 14.7 opportunities per game. However, that has amounted to 55 yards on the ground each week. Taulapapa has also seen his role reduced as Virginia gets creative with former quarterback Keytaon Thompson. Thompson has increasingly appeared as a wide receiver and running back within this offense.

Billy Kemp ($6,200) – Kemp had an 83% route rate in last week’s game, but he still leads this team in targets at 69 (28.2% share). Kemp is Armstrong’s top stacking option.

Terrell Jana ($4,900) – Jana ran a route on 73% of drop backs last week. Most of those routes occur in the slot. He is the second-most targeted receiver within this offense.

Lavel Davis ($6,300) – Standout freshman, Davis has missed the last two games with injury. He expects to return here, but his role could be reduced. He ran a route on 80% of drop backs before his injury. In his place, Tavares Kelly and Ra’Shaun henry notched 33% and 43% route rates.

Tony Poljan ($4,500) – Poljan’s route rate hovers at 69% this season. Poljan is Virginia’s hyper-athletic tight end. Poljan is a former quarterback from Central Michigan. He is a solid dart throw here.

CFB DFS Matchup: Baylor vs Texas Tech

Baylor CFB DFS Picks (29 Team Total)

Offense – Dave Aranda moves over from LSU to coach Baylor. He hired Larry Fedora to coordinate the offense. Fedora is the failed North Carolina head coach and he most recently worked for Texas as an analyst. His offenses were up-tempo and pass heavy at Texas. Conversely, Baylor runs 69.6 plays per game while passing 54.9% of the time. Baylor allowed the most sacks in the Big 12 last year and they’ve continued to struggle through 2020. Charlier Brewer’s incompetence doesn’t help.

Charlie Brewer ($6,200) – One of college football’s biggest disappointments, Brewer has taken a major step back in Baylor’s offense. He averages 223 yards on 35 pass attempts per game. Baylor can’t pass protect, so it isn’t all his fault. He has already taken 17 sacks this year, reducing his rushing upside and making him largely unusable.

John Lovett ($4,500) – After missing last week’s game, Lovett expects to return to the field for Baylor this week. Lovett and his backfield-mate Trestan Ebner temporarily opted out as Baylor fails to utilize them in an underwhelming offensive scheme. Neither present attractive plays, but Lovett is the more slightly more enticing player.

RJ Sneed ($5,000) – Technically Baylor’s top receiver, Sneed’s 42 targets equate to a 25.6% target share. However, Sneed offers little upside for his price. He averages 59.6 yards per game.

Tyquan Thornton ($4,000) – Thornton will allegedly return from injury this week, muddying Baylor’s pass catchers. Thornton saw seven and eight targets in his two games before injury. Gavin Holmes has seen more targets than Thornton overall, but he could fall behind upon Thornton’s return.

Texas Tech CFB DFS Picks (27.5 Team Total)

Offense – Matt Wells remains head coach of Texas Tech and they will continue their pass heavy, up-tempo offense. Texas Tech currently averages 70.3 plays per game, with a 54.9% pass rate. They typically play faster with an extremely pass-heavy approach. Their offensive line has been a slight concern this year and they’ve struggled to keep drives alive.

Henry Colombi ($6,400) – After a horrific game last week, Henry Colombi will rotate with Alan Bowman ($5,900) this week. Bowman has player better football than Colombi this year, but Texas Tech remains adamant of getting Colombi snaps. This is generally a DFS friendly offense, but the quarterback rotation saps most of the value.

Xavier White ($4,500) – Brooks and Tahj Brooks ($3,000) lead a four-man running back rotation when Texas Tech plays at full strength. With Texas Tech employing a pass-heavy approach, none of the backs look viable.

Erik Ezukanma ($5,100) – Ezukanma led Texas Tech with a 79% route rate. No other plater topped 53% outside of tight end Travis Koontz (84%). Ezukanma’s 54 targets (20% share) also remain well above TJ Vasher as Texas Tech’s second-most target receiver (32 targets).

TJ Vasher ($4,000) – The aforementioned Vasher ran a route on just 38% of dropbacks in his return from injury. Vasher typically functions as a starter, making him the second-most trustworthy receiver in this offense.

Myles Price ($3,800) – Outside of Ezukanma and maybe Vasher, Texas Tech rotates receivers. Price ran a route on 50% dropbacks. KeSean Carter and Ja’Lynn Polk registered a 46% and 54% route rate respectively.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.