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College Football DFS: Week 11 DraftKings & FanDuel CFB Picks | Wednesday, 11/10/2021

Matt Gajewski



DraftKings CFB DFS College Football Picks optimizer lineup optimal picks this week 12 Justin Hall Ball State tonight today free expert projections ownership rankings

Week 11 action kicks off with a Wednesday three-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football DFS breakdown will look at both teams and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the Week 11 CFB DFS picks for Wednesday’s matchup.

College Football DFS: Week 11 Wednesday CFB Picks

Toledo vs. Bowling Green

Toledo (30.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 72 (47th)

Pass Rate – 50.35% (45th)

Dequan Finn ($7,700) has played well as Toledo’s starting quarterback in recent weeks. In fact, Finn is fresh off a 461 yard, three-touchdown game against Eastern Michigan. Finn finished with negative yards rushing in that contest, but his larger body of work shows excellent mobility. He already has 348 cumulative yards rushing this year. Finn has struggled at times as a passer this year and only has two games above 200 yards. However, he is still throwing for 8.1 yards per attempt, and he plays a lackluster Bowling Green team behind a 30.25-point implied team total. Finn is still a strong play here.

Finn is also popping in the Awesemo projections and lineup optimizer, which we use in combination to create our DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets. Check out our free DraftKings CFB Cheat Sheet and FanDuel CFB Cheat Sheet for tonight’s slate of games to see who is coming in the optimal lineups.

At running back Toledo uses Bryant Koback ($7,600) as their feature runner. He averages 17.7 touches per game and over 100 total yards. Koback is extremely involved as a receiver and ranks fourth on the team in overall targets. Bowling Green gives up over 200 yard rushing to opponents, making him a solid play. Micah Kelly ($3,500) could even be in play for tournaments as a change of pace in a solid matchup.

Toledo lost Bryce Mitchell earlier this year, solidifying Isaiah Winstead ($4,600) and Devin Maddox ($5,000) as the top two receivers. Winstead plays more and has more targets this year (54). However, Maddox has been targeted 45 times himself and provides more big play ability. Maddox has 478 yards to Winstead’s 371. Behind them, Toledo used a rotation led by Jerjuan Newton ($3,400), but also involving Danzel McKinley-Lewis ($3,000), DeMeer Blankumsee ($3,900) and Matt Landers ($5,300). None of them eclipsed 40% of the team’s routes, but Newton and Landers popped up for six and seven targets, respectively. Drew Rosi ($3,300) is the seldom used tight end.

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Bowling Green (20.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 64.9 (112th)

Pass Rate – 59.73% (8th)

Matt McDonald ($5,100) continues his campaign as Bowling Green’s quarterback. He currently averages just 236 yards passing per game on 34.4 attempts. Also not the most mobile quarterback, McDonald offers a middling ceiling. He has one game above 300 yards passing this year, but he has another six between 220 yards and 270 yards. Interestingly, McDonald has positive yards rushing in three straight games after starting the year in a massive hole. He still is not the highest-upside option in a Bowling Green offense, but he is viable in tournaments.

Bowling Green will use a running back by committee, but Terrion Stewart ($5,500) leads the group with 18 carries over the last two weeks. He is also the team’s leading rusher with 282 yards. This is largely a situation to avoid with Jaison Patterson ($4,000), Taron Keith ($3,400) and Jhaylin Embry ($3,100) also involved.

At receiver Austin Osborne ($4,000) has a 66-52 target edge on Tyrone Broden ($4,900) this year. However, Broden has been far more dynamic with 543 yards receiving to Osborne’s 393. Tight end Christian Sims ($3,400) is also heavily involved with 367 yards and 45 targets himself. The WR3 is typically Cavon Croom ($3,000), but he will rotate with other players, including Embry. This is also a middling situation to target, but Osborne, Broden and Sims provide cheap PPR value.

Ball State vs. Northern Illinois

Ball State (32.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 69.1 (76th)

Pass Rate – 51.72% (36th)

Drew Plitt ($7,100) is the veteran quarterback for Ball State. He is somewhat mobile, with 103 yards on the ground, but he has struggled somewhat as a passer. Plitt is only averaging 196.4 yards per game on 29.9 attempts, despite Ball State’s 51.7% pass rate. Plitt has shown questionable upside this year with just one game above 300 yards and only four above 200. Still, Ball State has a team total north of 30 points and faces a mediocre Northern Illinois defense. Plitt is in play for GPPs.

Ball State has increasingly used Carson Steele ($6,000) as their feature back. Last week, he out-touched Will Jones ($4,500) 28-4. While Jones still plays a fair amount on third down, this backfield is trending towards Steele. So far this year, he averages 64.3 rushing and 7.2 yards receiving on 13 touches. He has been above this mark in two of his last three games. NIU allows 215 yards rushing per game.

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At receiver Justin Hall ($7,900) operates as Ball State’s alpha with 63.6 yards per game on 8.1 targets. He is also extremely active as a rusher with at least four carries in three straight games. Behind Hall, Ball State uses Yo’Heinz Tyler ($5,500) and Jayshon Jackson ($6,000) as secondary options. Tyler averages 6.8 targets per game to Jackson’s 6.6, but Jackson holds a 485-360 yardage edge. They are both appropriately priced here. Cody Rudy ($3,000) is listed as an RB, but he plays tight end for this team, averaging 2.3 targets per game.

Northern Illinois (29.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 73.4 (34th)

Pass Rate – 36.63% (124th)

Transferring from Michigan State, Rocky Lombardi‘s ($6,800) usage has transformed at Northern Illinois. Suddenly a dual-threat quarterback, Lombardi has 346 total yards rushing already this year. As a passer, he averages 205.2 yards per game on 25.6 attempts. While the volume is low, Lombardi’s activity in the run game keeps him involved in all game scripts. Lombardi has also displayed a ceiling in recent weeks, throwing for 348 and 532 against Central Michigan and Kent State in Northern Illinois’ two most recent games. This week, Ball State allows 165.5 yards rushing per game, but they play solid defense overall. Lombardi is questionable for this contest after suffering a head injury Either way, Lombardi has been playing well enough through the air and on the ground to warrant consideration here, if active. The backup Ethan Hampton ($6,100) is a complete dice roll behind Lombardi.

Harrison Waylee ($5,200) and Antario Brown ($3,100) continue to miss time and have not had their statuses updated for multiple weeks. In their place, Jevyon Ducker ($4,900) has stepped up for a larger workload. After seeing 33 and 31 carries in two straight, Ducker only received 19 carries. Last week. Fortunately, he added three targets, keeping him involved in all game environments. Clint Ratkovich ($3,800) and Mason Blakemore ($3,000) are the change of pace options. Ratkovich averages 9 touches per game and has some GPP viability.

NIU lost Tyrice Richie last week just as they returned Cole Tucker ($4,400) from injury. Absurdly, Trayvon Rudolph ($7,000) saw 21 targets in the pass game, making up almost half of his total targets on the season. For reference, he averages just 5.2 targets per game. However, he looks like the new alpha without Richie. Tucker saw 12 targets himself and averages 5.6 per game, which ranks ahead of Rudolph. Tucker is the buy low in this situation. Miles Joiner ($3,700) is also questionable for this contest, perhaps solidifying snaps for Messiah Travis ($3,500) as the WR3. This is a situation to monitor. Finally, Tristen Tewes ($3,000) is the tight end, who is seldom targeted.

Kent State vs. Central Michigan

Kent State (34.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 78.4 (11th)

Pass Rate – 42.90% (95th)

Dustin Crum ($7,900) will continue to operate Kent State’s high octane offense, running 78.4 plays per game. Crum is extremely mobile, with 440 yards rushing already this year. As a passer, he averages 232.9 yards per game on 27.9 attempts. However, these numbers are somewhat depressed after Crum faced Texas A&M and Iowa in non-conference play. Aside from that, he has three games above 300 yards and another at 257, all coming in recent weeks. Central Michigan already allows over 300 yards per game to opposing passers. Crum is an excellent option across formats this week.

Marquez Cooper ($5,400) leads a one-two punch at running back also featuring Xavier Williams ($4,300). Cooper leads the team with 81.4 rushing and 7 yards receiving per game on 16.8 touches. Williams is right behind with 53.2 rushing and 2.7 yards receiving on 10.9 touches per game. Both have some upside here in the best scoring environment on the slate.

At receiver Dante Cephas ($7,100) and Keshunn Abram ($4,300) are the most consistent options. Both run a route on a majority of dropbacks. Cephas averages 11.5 targets per game over Kent State’s last four, while Abram checks in at 6.0. Syracuse transfer Nykeim Johnson ($5,100) averages 5 targets himself, but his route rate dropped to 45%, which ranked below Ja’Shaun Poke ($3,300). On the year, Johnson has a 75% route rate to Poke’s 48%, so this could be a blip on the radar or a new trend. Kent State typically plays four wide, making these the only four legitimate options in the offense.

Central Michigan (37.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 76 (20th)

Pass Rate – 54.77% (18th)

Daniel Richardson ($6,600) has fully taken over for Jacob Sirmon ($) at this point. Like Kent State, Central Michigan plays uptempo with 76 plays per game. They are also very pass heavy with a 54.8% pass rate. Kent State is one of the worst defenses in the MAC, giving Richardson an excellent matchup and a slate leading implied team total. After splitting time with Sirmon to start the year, Richardson has one game above 300 yards and another two north of 275. While he offers noting as a rusher, Richardson’s ceiling as a passer deserves a look here.

Central Michigan has the best running back on the entire slate in Lew Nichols ($7,900). Nichols averages 119.9 rushing and 21.4 yards receiving per game on 25.3 touches. Darius Bracy ($3,000) returned to the lineup last week, but he still did not see a carry. Kent State allows over 200 yards rushing per game, making Nichols an excellent play here.

In the receiving game Kalil Pimpleton ($6,400) got there last week on special teams. As a receiver, he averages 80.3 yards per game on 8.8 targets. This is slightly ahead of JaCorey Sullivan ($6,300), who averages 63.9 yards per game on 6.9 targets. Sullivan is much closer to Dallas Dixon ($5,800), who averages 65.8 yards per game on 6.6 targets. Sullivan battled injury earlier this year and appears to be working back towards a larger role. Joel Wilson ($3,600) is the tight end and he averages 30.3 yards on 4 targets himself this year. He is fine as a punt. With the high total, targeting one of these pass catchers makes sense.

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Check out our industry-leading FanDuel CFB DFS projections. Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the DFS CFB ownership projections for today. Looking for more DFS CFB FanDuel picks and DFS college football FanDuel picks?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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