There is some favorable pricing on this main slate for pitchers which may make people pay up by default in order to spend their salary. However, I’m more on the mid-tier and low-tier options tonight for tournaments as you’ll see below. If you’re looking some notes about each pitcher on the slate, check out our MLB Strategy Video from earlier this morning. Here are a few of my (Tommienation1) top options of the night, and we’ll get Awesemo to weigh in later today with his thoughts.
Masahiro Tanaka ($9,300 DK/$8,900 FD)
Tanaka has had an awesome start to the year, going at least 6 innings and recording 7 strikeouts in both starts agaisnt the Orioles and Blue Jays. This will be a tough test against the Red Sox, but the weather is great for pitching in Boston, and Tanaka’s price on DK makes him a great play even if he allows a couple runs. The Red Sox have the 4th-highest Swing% in the MLB this season, and if they aren’t patient here, there could be a lot of swings and misses, especially guys like Devers, Martinez, Bradley, and Holt, who all strikeout above league average against righties. On DraftKings, Tanaka’s price makes him a great play even in a tough matchup.
Luis Castillo ($7,700 DK/$6,900 FD)
Castillo is usually going to be a risky play because of the hard-contact he gives up and his propensity to get wild at times, but it’s hard to ignore his upside at these prices. Since last year, he has a 28% K-rate against righties and 24% against lefties. This Phillies lineup has some power in the middle of the order, but only Carlos Santana and Maikel Franco strike out under 20% of the time against righties. Similar to Tanaka, Castillo’s Whiff/Swing rate (36.4%) and Swinging-Strike rate (16.2%) look great, and at under $8K on DraftKings, I’ll gladly take a chance on a guy with some of the highest strikeout upside on the slate.
Kevin Gausman ($6,000 DK/$7,000 FD)
Gausman has had an underwhelming start to 2018 after a solid second-half of 2017, but this is a spot where he could have his first great performance of the year. The Blue Jays are an above average matchup for Gausman, as they rank 11th in O-Swing% and 3rd in Swinging-Strike%. He should see at least 5 right-handed bats tonight plus decent pitching weather, as it looks like it’ll be in the low-50’s in Baltimore at gametime. Gausman’s splitter has a 27.9 Whiff% in a short sample this year, and that pitch could be key to racking up a bunch of strikeouts in this matchup. At this price on DraftKings where the win isn’t everything, Gausman allows you to do a lot with the rest of your roster in tournaments.
I like all of these picks on DraftKings. Castillo and Tanaka in particular are two of my top owned pitchers. On FanDuel, I might pivot from Tanaka to David Price on the opposing side. Although the Yankees are one of the toughest lineups to face in baseball, David’s price is bargain bin tonight at 8600. Hopefully the matchup will scare people off and you can get a great pitcher at low ownership.
Jock MKT MLB Picks & IPO Projections Tonight, 11/2 | Jose Altuve
MLB DFS Showdown/Single-Game Ownership Projections
MLB DFS Projections for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo
MLB Player Props: Home Run Props & Strikeout Props Tool For MLB Starters Today (Free Trial)
MLB Power Rankings + Sports Betting Model (Free Trial)
Awesemo’s MLB DFS Rankings
Jock MKT MLB Picks & IPO Projections Tonight, 10/26 | Yordan Alvarez
MLB DFS Main Slate Ownership Projections