We’re talking main slate pitching here which is a little tricky with only 4 games on tonight’s slate. There are two pretty obvious options at the top and after that it gets dicey. If you’re looking for analysis on each game, check out the MLB Strategy Video. Awesemo will update this article with his thoughts later today, so make sure to check back before lock!
Sean Manaea ($11,200 DK/$9,000 FD)
It’s hard to bet against Manaea lately after his last two starts — one of which was a no-hitter against what was the hottest team in the MLB and he followed that up with 7 IP, 7Ks against the Astros. His Swinging-Strike% in both of those starts was over 13% and we could be looking at another solid performance in a so-so matchup against the Mariners. Seattle doesn’t have a lot of strikeouts in their lineup, but with the way Manaea has been rolling, he’s got a good chance to go deep into this game and be one of the top-2 highest scoring pitchers on the slate, which makes him a tough fade even on DK at an inflated price.
David Price ($9,700 DK/$8,100 FD)
There’s no doubt Price will be chalky tonight with a short slate and in a great matchup. With no Adrian Beltre or Elvis Andrus in the Rangers’ lineup, they have a bunch of guys in the order that are going to swing and miss. Gallo, Deshields, Rua, Kiner-Falefa, and Mazara all strikeout over 23.5% of the time against lefties dating back to the start of 2017. Price is coming off a couple rough start against the Rays, but I expect him to get right in this spot tonight in a great matchup against the strikeout-prone Rangers.
Mike Minor ($5,300 DK/$6,300 FD)
Minor is a guy that I have a some interest in tonight as I think he will be very low-owned while the Red Sox bats will be very popular, making him a good leverage play in tournaments. I’ve like some of the things I’ve seen from Minor, including his 12.3% Swinging-Strike rate, his Whiffs/Swing% (26.6%), and the fact that he’s thrown 90+ pitches in all 5 of his starts, while the other guys in his price range (LeBlanc, Barria) may not have as long of a leash. While the Red Sox do have some guys we’re scared of from the right side, as a team against lefties this year, they have the 8th-highest K%, rank last in OBP, last in Line-Drive%, and 2nd-to-last in Hard-Hit%. I don’t expect Minor to have be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate, but I do think he can limit the Red Sox bats and get you 15+ DK points at low ownership.
I agree with Jake that Manaea and Price will be the top options tonight. This is a classic dichotomy of a hot streak inflating Manaea’s ownership and a cold streak sinking Price’s, where I think they have similar chances of success tonight. Thus, I think it’s a better strategy to roll with Price tonight. I like where Jake is going with picking Minor to have a reverse correlation with other players in a tournament. I think that is a great strategy in tournaments tonight.
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