We have a short four-game slate on this Wednesday night but there is definitely no shortage of talent from which to make our NHL DFS picks. Let’s hop to it.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Kevin Hayes (PHI at WSH): DraftKings – $4,900; FanDuel – $5,700
It’s been an up-and-down year for Hayes, who started slowly with his new team, but he has five goals in 11 games since uniting with Travis Konecny on the second line, averaging 2.7 shots per game. Since that line was put together those 11 games ago, they have an expected-goals scored rate of 2.4 (well above average) and actual goals rate of a little over 2.8, also well above average.
The particular reason for targeting Hayes tonight is the matchup. Going into Washington isn’t particularly difficult, as the team as a whole has allowed goals at 5-on-5 at a rate similar Ottawa and Chicago. They should also get the line matchup of Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson, and that line has been thoroughly abhorrent defensively this year to the tune of an expected goals rate against of 2.9. The only thing saving them is .940 goaltending.
Hayes doesn’t play huge minutes, but he’s not priced as such. He’s playing on a good offensive line in a great matchup. He can be used both as a duo stack with line mate Travis Konecny, or all by his lonesome as a one-off.
Elias Pettersson (VAN vs. ARI): DraftKings – $7,100; FanDuel – $6,900
Vancouver is at home tonight to Arizona, and when the Canucks are at home, it’s the Bo Horvat line that takes top matchups from the opponent. Tonight, that would mean the line of Keller-Hall-Dvorak. The issue is that there isn’t much for depth in Arizona’s forwards. In particular, when the duo of Hall-Dvorak have been off the ice for the Coyotes, the team has an expected goals against rate of 2.6, which is quite bad.
It’s hard to improve on the Pettersson line, but adding Tyler Toffoli has been a revelation. Since his acquisition, the line has generated nearly 72 shot attempts, slightly more than 4.0 expected goals, and over 5.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. All are phenomenal numbers. There is regression that’s going to come – no line can sustain five goals per 60 minutes – but that they’re generating so many shots should soften the landing.
One issue is that Arizona doesn’t take many penalties and their penalty kill has been pretty good in general. But Pettersson and his line mates have been so good at 5-on-5 that it’s easier to stomach than it would be for lesser players in this matchup. He’s fine as a one-off or as part of a stack, especially with his relatively cheap price on FD.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Vladislav Namestnikov (COL vs. ANH): DraftKings – $3,500; FanDuel – $4,700
Namestnikov was traded from Ottawa to Colorado last week and due to an injury or two, has found himself immediately on the top line for the Avalanche. We’ve seen how playing with Nathan MacKinnon has helped production from guys like Joonas Donskoi this year alone, and Namestnikov does have a track record of performing well with elite talent; it was just a couple years ago he put up 44 points in 62 games playing largely with the big guns in Tampa Bay.
It’s the matchup tonight that is appealing, of course. Colorado is hosting Anaheim and the Ducks are 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes since the calendar turned to 2020, ranking 22nd by actual goals against. He should face off against Ryan Getzlaf’s line, and with the team loading up the Adam Henrique line, there’s not much left for Getzlaf to play with.
Namestnikov’s value is contingent on his lineup slotting. There have been injuries that have pushed him up there but those players, or at least one, may return. That would minimize the value, obviously. But as long as Namestnikov is on the top line, at this price, he’s hard to overlook as a one-off on DK where he’s so cheap.
Jakob Silverberg (ANH at COL): DraftKings – $4,900; FanDuel – $5,400
Even in a down year for the team as a whole, Silfverberg is knocking on the door of his fourth 20-goal season in five years. A big bonus for him tonight is that he’s skating on the second line with Adam Henrique and Rickard Rakell. With that trio on the ice this year, the Ducks have scored 3.9 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The shot percentage is a bit high, but it’s three very talented players scoring at a high rate. It’s high and will decline, but it shouldn’t be surprising.
The issue for Silfverberg and the Ducks is that this is not a good matchup. The team they’re facing has one of the lowest goals against and expected goals against rates since New Year’s, and it’s even lower when the top line is on the ice. Silfverberg should avoid the top-line matchup, though, and the numbers do get worse with the top line off the ice (though they’re still excellent).
Playing Silfverberg tonight is not recommended for cash games because of the matchup, but having talented line mates to play with is appealing on a short slate for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Zach Werenski (CBJ at CGY): DraftKings – $6,800; FanDuel – $6,500
It hasn’t been a monster minutes increase for Werenski since the injury to blue line partner Seth Jones – a little over a minute per game – but he has seen big increases in other ways. Most notably, he went from a guy who averaged 2.78 shots per game with Jones in the lineup (and on his defense pair), to 3.81 shots per game without Jones in the lineup. That is a monster shot rate for any player, let alone a defenseman. In those 11 games without Jones, Werenski has hit the shot bonus on DraftKings four times, and fallen short by one shot another two times.
Of course, the issue in Columbus is scoring; there’s a reason Werenski has as many goals (20) as he does assists. Calgary also doesn’t take many penalties, either. All the same, Werenski is playing nearly 25 minutes a night and is shooting the lights out. It’s understandable why some people would avoid paying his hefty price on the road, but there are just too many minutes and shots to flat-out ignore.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARI at VAN): DraftKings – $4,500; FanDuel – $4,700
After trying out some different looks, Arizona has returned to Ekman-Larsson running their top PP unit. That’s good news for tonight as they face Vancouver, a team that is top-10 by times short-handed this season. The team is 26th by expected goals against when down a man, and their actual goals against is in the bottom-half of the league. They’re not awful by any stretch, but the combination of penalties taken with a mediocre-at-best penalty kill is what makes it appealing.
It’s a good matchup for the team in general as well as, on the season, the Canucks have an expected goals against rate worse than Detroit, and an actual goals against rate worse than Anaheim. Things haven’t gotten better as the season’s gone on, as they’re 24th by expected goals against in calendar 2020, and 30th in actual goals against. With Ekman-Larsson back on the power play, he should be a target in all formats tonight.
Stacks
Philadelphia PP stack of Giroux-Konecny-Couturier
On shorter slates, we need to get a bit creative with our stacks. Philadelphia’s opponent tonight is the second-most penalized team in the NHL. They take so many penalties that despite having the fourth-best PK percentage in the league, they have allowed as many PP goals as teams with 25 fewer short-handed opportunities. Feel free to add Ivan Provorov to make it a four-man stack or removing a forward to keep it at three NHL DFS picks.
Colorado PP stack of MacKinnon-Compher-Makar
Beware of Cale Makar’s availability. He didn’t play Monday night, and if he’s not in the lineup once again, then Sam Girard would be his replacement on the power play. Either way, on a short slate, Colorado is going to be popular so once again, we’ll have to get creative with our stacks. Anaheim doesn’t take a lot of penalties, but they have some key injuries on the blue line, and their PK isn’t very good, coming in at 23rd by goals against per 60 minutes. Going with a PP stack to differentiate tonight makes a lot of sense.
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