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Prepping for a fantasy football draft can be a time consuming,
confusing process. Spending hours reading though magazines, on-line articles
and listening to podcasts can leave you sifting through a mishmash of
conflicting and often useless information. It is difficult figuring out who to
trust and which stats are noise and which are not. You have probably come
across players who are considered “breakout” picks in one article,
only to see them labeled as “busts” in another.

The reason for this is simple: There are too many available
statistics to choose from, and many of the ones that are used by fantasy
football analysts contain little, if any, predictive value. In fact, even the
statistics that do offer predictive value can be harmful when viewed in
isolation. When citing individual statistics – as fantasy football analysts
often do – they can make the case for anyone. If you are tired of the
groupthink and industry consensus, maybe it is time for a data-driven approach.

Fortunately, Awesemo has created first-rate fantasy football
rankings based on projections. Good projections consider millions of data
points. They then determine which data points are most predictive and aggregate
them into a single overarching number for each player, finally culminating in a
ranking system that takes relativity into account.

The Awesemo Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

Whether you have an off-line draft or simply want a quick, easy-to-view
cheat sheet for your fantasy football draft, we have you covered with all types
of different league scoring, from full PPR to half PPR to standard. You can
also download our fantasy football cheat sheets by positional ranking and cross
them off your draft or use them in conjunction with our draft wingman tool,
which allows you to keep track of how each pick is improving your roster. All
our cheatsheets are based off of Alex Baker’s fantasy football rankings and projections.
The world’s No. 1 DFS player, Alex put his daily fantasy model to use in order
to calculate game-by-game projections for the entire NFL season for every
fantasy-relevant player. He used over/unders, win totals, spreads, and metrics like
targets, routes run and yards per attempt to produce one simple, easy-to-use
number for your fantasy football drafts. After that Awesemo factored in
positional scarcity and relative value to reach a final set of rankings and
tiers.

Strength of Schedule Tool

Not every week is equal in fantasy football, especially when it
comes to beating your friends in the playoffs. If you preferentially choose
players who have a favorable schedule going into Weeks 15 and 16, you will have
a great chance of success. The Awesemo Strength of Schedule Tool is not your
regular list of good and bad defenses by week. Alex Baker has put his
projections to work – using game lines from the season coupled with specific
stats to create a rating for each matchup that is not solely based on last
year’s performances. Types of defenses are also taken into account. Inside, run-stuffing
defenses may allow no points to bruising backs who continually run through the
A-gap, but what about pass-catching backs like Christian McCaffrey or Alvin
Kamara? Awesemo’s Strength of Schedule Tool treats those backs differently, for
example, and tailors the fantasy football strength of schedule to their unique
situations. We have also grouped each player’s strength of schedule by periods
of the season. Want to know how a player grades out during the playoffs? Just
toggle the playoff column. Got a guillotine league where you need to be great
right off the bat? Toggle Weeks 1 to 4.

Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts + Busts

With the fantasy football draft season upon us, Alex Baker brings
you his top fantasy football sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2021 Fantasy
Football Season.

Breakout: An established, high-level
player who will exceed his prior performance and expectations (as measured by
average draft position) going into the season.

Sleeper: A mid-range player who is
projected to outperform his ADP.

Deep Sleeper: An end-of-draft flier who
has the potential to be a diamond in the rough.

Bust: A player who is expected
to under-perform relative to other players in his ADP range.

What are Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts &
Busts?

Most fantasy football fans are very familiar with terms like
sleepers, breakouts and busts. But the industry has never really set out to
define each term. What specifically constitutes a deep sleeper vs a regular
sleeper? What percentage of points do you have to increase or decrease to be
considered a bust?

Here at Awesemo we have set out to better define what fantasy football
sleepers, breakouts and busts are by categorizing them in our rankings relative
to their average draft position. With each set of fantasy football sleepers,
busts and breakouts listed, we have created a differential column relative to
their average draft position so you can see how player rank.

Awesemo’s data table allows you to compare our projections vs. the
average draft position, see which players projected to bust in 2021 and which
players make for great mid- to late-round steals. Breakouts are determined by
how far ahead Awesemo has a player projected over his ADP. Sleepers are similar
but have an ADP of 50 or lower, while deep sleepers have an ADP of 100 or
lower. Busts are players that Awesemo has ranked much lower than their ADP.

Fantasy Football Breakouts

A breakout is an established, high-level player who will exceed
his prior performance and expectations (as measured by average draft position)
going into the season. Unlike the traditional definition of breakout, which
implies a first-time record performance for a player, our breakouts are simply
put in comparison relative to their average draft position. Laviska Shenault is
our top breakout option for the 2021 fantasy football season, ranked 60 spots
above his ADP.

Fantasy Football Sleepers + Deep Sleepers

The only difference here is how highly each player is ranked.
Fantasy football sleepers are ranked from 50 to 110 in Awesemo’s rankings,
while deep sleepers are ranked 110 beyond. You will find a number of under-the-radar
receiver options ranking highly in the Awesemo’s sleeper score, including Russell
Gage, Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman and Antonio Brown.

Prepping for a fantasy football draft can be a time consuming, confusing process. Spending hours reading though magazines, on-line articles and listening to podcasts can leave you sifting through a mishmash of conflicting and often useless information. It is difficult figuring out who to trust and which stats are noise and which are not. You have probably come across players who are considered “breakout” picks in one article, only to see them labeled as “busts” in another.

The reason for this is simple: There are too many available statistics to choose from, and many of the ones that are used by fantasy football analysts contain little, if any, predictive value. In fact, even the statistics that do offer predictive value can be harmful when viewed in isolation. When citing individual statistics – as fantasy football analysts often do – they can make the case for anyone. If you are tired of the groupthink and industry consensus, maybe it is time for a data-driven approach.

Fortunately, Awesemo has created first-rate fantasy football rankings based on projections. Good projections consider millions of data points. They then determine which data points are most predictive and aggregate them into a single overarching number for each player, finally culminating in a ranking system that takes relativity into account.

The Awesemo Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

Whether you have an off-line draft or simply want a quick, easy-to-view cheat sheet for your fantasy football draft, we have you covered with all types of different league scoring, from full PPR to half PPR to standard. You can also download our fantasy football cheat sheets by positional ranking and cross them off your draft or use them in conjunction with our draft wingman tool, which allows you to keep track of how each pick is improving your roster. All our cheatsheets are based off of Alex Baker’s fantasy football rankings and projections. The world’s No. 1 DFS player, Alex put his daily fantasy model to use in order to calculate game-by-game projections for the entire NFL season for every fantasy-relevant player. He used over/unders, win totals, spreads, and metrics like targets, routes run and yards per attempt to produce one simple, easy-to-use number for your fantasy football drafts. After that Awesemo factored in positional scarcity and relative value to reach a final set of rankings and tiers.

Strength of Schedule Tool

Not every week is equal in fantasy football, especially when it comes to beating your friends in the playoffs. If you preferentially choose players who have a favorable schedule going into Weeks 15 and 16, you will have a great chance of success. The Awesemo Strength of Schedule Tool is not your regular list of good and bad defenses by week. Alex Baker has put his projections to work – using game lines from the season coupled with specific stats to create a rating for each matchup that is not solely based on last year’s performances. Types of defenses are also taken into account. Inside, run-stuffing defenses may allow no points to bruising backs who continually run through the A-gap, but what about pass-catching backs like Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara? Awesemo’s Strength of Schedule Tool treats those backs differently, for example, and tailors the fantasy football strength of schedule to their unique situations. We have also grouped each player’s strength of schedule by periods of the season. Want to know how a player grades out during the playoffs? Just toggle the playoff column. Got a guillotine league where you need to be great right off the bat? Toggle Weeks 1 to 4.

 

Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts + Busts

With the fantasy football draft season upon us, Alex Baker brings you his top fantasy football sleepers, breakouts and busts for the 2021 Fantasy Football Season.

Breakout: An established, high-level player who will exceed his prior performance and expectations (as measured by average draft position) going into the season.

Sleeper: A mid-range player who is projected to outperform his ADP.

Deep Sleeper: An end-of-draft flier who has the potential to be a diamond in the rough.

Bust: A player who is expected to underperform relative to other players in his ADP range.

What are Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts?

Most fantasy football fans are very familiar with terms like sleepers, breakouts and busts. But the industry has never really set out to define each term. What specifically constitutes a deep sleeper vs a regular sleeper? What percentage of points do you have to increase or decrease to be considered a bust?

Here at Awesemo we have set out to better define what fantasy football sleepers, breakouts and busts are by categorizing them in our rankings relative to their average draft position. With each set of fantasy football sleepers, busts and breakouts listed, we have created a differential column relative to their average draft position so you can see how player rank.

Awesemo’s data table allows you to compare our projections vs. the average draft position, see which players projected to bust in 2021 and which players make for great mid- to late-round steals. Breakouts are determined by how far ahead Awesemo has a player projected over his ADP. Sleepers are similar but have an ADP of 50 or lower, while deep sleepers have an ADP of 100 or lower. Busts are players that Awesemo has ranked much lower than their ADP.

Fantasy Football Breakouts

A breakout is an established, high-level player who will exceed his prior performance and expectations (as measured by average draft position) going into the season. Unlike the traditional definition of breakout, which implies a first-time record performance for a player, our breakouts are simply put in comparison relative to their average draft position. Laviska Shenault is our top breakout option for the 2021 fantasy football season, ranked 60 spots above his ADP.

Fantasy Football Sleepers + Deep Sleepers

The only difference here is how highly each player is ranked. Fantasy football sleepers are ranked from 50 to 110 in Awesemo’s rankings, while deep sleepers are ranked 110 beyond. You will find a number of under-the-radar receiver options ranking highly in the Awesemo’s sleeper score, including Russell Gage, Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman and Antonio Brown.

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