Being knowledgeable about the NFL schedule can give you a significant edge in your fantasy football league. At Awesemo, we’ve developed a strength of schedule tool that provides projections throughout the season, including the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15 and 16. Let’s take a look at three running backs who have particularly tough schedules during that span and discuss how that could impact their production. All projections are based on half-PPR scoring. Let’s get into some fantasy football rankings for our most downgraded playoff strength of schedule running backs.
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Fantasy Football Rankings: Strength of Schedule Playoff Downgrades
D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
Selected in the second round of the 2018 draft, the Lions hoped they had their running back of the future in Kerryon Johnson. He made an immediate impact, rushing 118 times for 641 yards to go along with 32 receptions for 213 yards in his rookie seasons. However, he suffered a knee injury last year that limited him to eight games. Now he has to deal with the addition of Swift, who was selected in the second round of the 2020 draft. Swift could make an immediate impact given his productive tenure at Georgia, which included over 2,200 rushing yards to go along with 17 rushing touchdowns the last two seasons.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Swift overtake Johnson as the Lions’ lead running back, but they could also share the workload, at least at the start of the season. Still, we’re projecting Swift to average 10.43 fantasy points per game for the year overall. However, that projected average dips by 7.1% during the fantasy playoffs to 9.69 points per contest. Week 16 brings a particularly tough matchup against the Buccaneers, who allowed by far the fewest rushing yards per game (73.8) in the league last season. Swift is Awesemo’s No. 1 fade in his fantasy football rankings strength of schedule playoff downgrades.
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Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Chubb has been extremely productive during his first two seasons in the league. He rushed for 996 yards and eight touchdowns during his rookie season and exploded last year for 1,494 yards and eight more scores. He registered seven games with at least 100 rushing yards last season and had eight games with at least 20 carries. However, he finished the season with 17 carries or fewer in five straight games, which could be somewhat attributed to the return of Kareem Hunt from a suspension.
Although Hunt could continue to steal some work from Chubb, expect Chubb to remain the Browns’ top back this season. We have him projected to average 12.96 fantasy points per game for the season, which makes him the 25th-ranked player, overall. However, a tough fantasy playoffs schedule leaves him with a projected average of 12.4 per contest over Weeks 15 and 16, which is a decline of 4.31%. His Week 15 opponent will be the Giants, who have focused on building a strong defensive line and adding to their linebacker unit this offseason. He then has to face the Jets in Week 16, who allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game last year. Chubb is Awesemo’s No. 2 fade in his fantasy football rankings strength of schedule playoff downgrades.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
After injuries limited him to eight games in 2018, Fournette bounced back in a big way last year. He received a heavy workload with 265 carries, finishing with 1,152 rushing yards. He also became a major weapon in the passing attack, catching 76 of 100 targets for an additional 522 yards. If there was a downside to his season, it’s that he only finished with three total touchdowns.
While there were rumors during the offseason that the Jaguars were looking to move on from Fournette, he enters 2020 as their clear top option out of the backfield. Behind him is pass-catching specialist Chris Thompson and an unproven 2019 fifth-round pick in Ryquell Armstead. His overall projection for the season checks in at 11.91 fantasy points per game, which is good enough to rank him 35th in our overall rankings. However, that projection drops by 4.18% to 11.41 points per contest during the fantasy playoffs. His toughest matchup comes in Week 15 on the road against a stout Ravens defense. Fournette is Awesemo’s No. 3 fade in his fantasy football rankings strength of schedule playoff downgrades.
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