Excuse me for a moment while I do a victory lap for calling Min-hyeok Kim’s first career HR in his 756th career plate appearance. Hopefully you did better with him in your KBO DFS lineups than I did. With way too much Pinto, SK, and Kiwoom, and not nearly enough concentration on the correct hitters, the rest of the slate didn’t break my way. But that’s why they play the games.
It was another fun slate overall, with a big blowout and walk-off 9th and 10th inning victories by Lotte and NC, the KBO is quickly demonstrating why their fans are so excited and passionate about this league. The two walk-off victories were as thrilling as anything you will see in MLB. KT and NC scored all their runs after the 6th inning, with NC finally winning in 10, coming back after KT had scored a run in the top of the 10th. Even more exciting, the chalky Doosan Bears scored 9 runs and lost when the Giants put up 2 in the bottom of the 8th, then answered a 9th inning tying run by the Bears with a walk-off Byung-hun Min homer.
Pitching got interesting with a monster game by David Buchanan, defying our expectations here. Ricardo Pinto got no help from his defense, the one error that was charged led directly to 6 of the 8 LG runs in the 2nd inning, but Pinto looked off from the outset. Meanwhile Chang-gyu Lim cruised on the other side of this one, striking out 7 Wyverns, giving up a lone run in 6 innings. The rest of pitching fell right around expectations for KBO DFS owners, with four other starters scoring between 30 and 40 FanDuel points.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Kia Tigers @ Hanwha Eagles – 9 run total (4.66/4.52) – Suggested Stack: Tigers 3-6
Sometimes teams get all the opportunities and just don’t come through with that big hit. Tigers hitters were on base a lot last night. Exactly as expected, the Eagles’ starter Shi-hwan Jang was all over the place, walking 6 Tigers in 6 innings and adding to his impressive career totals with a wild pitch in the 3rd. Jang did follow the positive end of his expectations as well, striking out 7 Tigers and limiting the damage in the run column. Kia just couldn’t capitalize fully, scoring only 4 despite adding 7 hits to all that action. The Tigers are looking to get the offense in gear against Min-jae Jang (no relation) tonight. This Jang has better control and pitches to a fair amount of contact, so Kia has some appeal. The projected 5 and 6 hitters in the lineup, outfielder Ji-wan Na ($7/$3.6k) and infielder Min-sang Yoo ($7/$4.1k) look like essential parts of the Kia stack tonight, coming at a discount on both sites but particularly inexpensively on FanDuel, Na has plenty of power to pay off that price.
The Eagles draw import starter Drew Gagnon tonight, but the odds-makers have this one closer than I would have expected for that match-up. Awesemo’s top stacks tool seems to agree, Hanwha ranks next to last on both sites, and doesn’t provide much to get excited about in the projections. Projected 5th hitter, first baseman Tae-kyun Kim ($9/$2.9k) is the type of hitter we’re looking for if we must go to the Eagles here. Drawing under 1% ownership projection on both sites and sitting in the heart of the order with a good price tag, the aging slugger has over 300 career homers, but has faded in recent years, struggling to a .091 ISO in 2019. Grab him and hope for a flash of that old pop if you want to get different.
KT Wiz @ NC Dinos – 10 run total (4.60/5.63) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 3-6 lineup dependent
Eventually the Dinos are going to play a boring game, but it wasn’t last night and if oddsmakers have this one right it won’t be tonight either. With the 2nd highest run total on the slate, and only 2 games slated for more than 10 runs, there should be opportunity in this one. KT comes in as the underdog again here, taking on solid young starter Chang-mo Koo, who strikes out around a batter per inning, and is one of the better young Korean starters. The Wiz have some bats to challenge Koo here, but the middle of the order is still very high priced. Import outfielder Mel Rojas Jr. ($16/$5.7k) and yesterday’s recommendation, cleanup hitter Han-joon Yoo ($14/$4.0k) might make an interesting but expensive 2-man stack here, third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang ($9/$4.2k) helps price-down the full stack and is a more than capable hitter, with strong WRC+ and ISO numbers in both 2018 and 2019.
The Dinos thrill ride continued last night with a 10th inning walk-off win. NC got star catcher Eui Ji Yang back in the middle of the order, so injury concerns seem to have been overblown. Aaron Altherr came out of the game in the 5th after being hit by a pitch, so it might be worth keeping an eye on his status closer to lock. Infielder Jin-Hyuk No ($9/$3.0k) offers some savings if he moves up in the lineup with others out for injury or rest but consider him more a cog in the machine than a standout on his own. NC ranks 2nd in the top stacks tool on both sites. Ownership is tracking toward that type of night again, so getting the NC hitters right, and working in a productive low-owned option, will likely be critical again.
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Doosan Bears @ Lotte Giants – 10.5 run total (5.97/4.76) – Suggested Stack: Bears: 1-4
Doosan is carrying the night’s highest implied run total again, with oddsmakers liking them for nearly 6 here. There’s a ton to like in the Bears lineup again, and they’re in their customary place atop the stack rankings on both sites. Pricing and ownership aren’t ignoring the talent and the spot for the Bears here, with a lot of the public going this way again, and most of the key hitters priced up on both sites. Power hitters Jae-il Oh ($15/$4.2k) and Jae-Hwan Kim ($16/$4.9k) are no big secret but rank 1 and 2 in my HR model tonight and should be a big part of anything the Bears get going. Leadoff hitter Kun-woo Park ($13/$3.9k) is affordable and provides an interesting blend of power, speed, and on-base capability in front of the mashers again.
Did the Giants have our KBO DFS Spotlight Hitters piece on the bulletin board to motivate the team last night? A 10-run victory didn’t start their inevitable process of coming back to Earth, but it’s still going to happen. Going up against import Chris Flexen, Lotte has a reasonable implied run total tonight, and offers some good value, making them a playable option. Projected 5-hitter Chi-hong An ($9/$2.2k) has some pop in his bat and comes at a discount in the middle of the Giants order tonight.
SK Wyverns @ LG Twins – 9.5 run total (4.33/5.38) – Suggested Stack: Wyverns 2-5
The Wyverns were just never in the game last night, falling behind by 9 runs after 2 innings. SK managed only 2 runs, despite their 10 hits on the night, this was one of those games where nothing went right. Tonight, they go up against Tyler Wilson, who has been one of the KBO’s best pitchers each of the last two seasons. Wilson had a very bumpy first start of 2020 last week but should be able to strike out his fair share, and limit the SK opportunity, which is reflected in the low run total. The Wyverns rank in the middle of the top stacks on DraftKings and further toward the bottom on FanDuel. Infielder Jamie Romak ($13/$6.0k) had his projected HR cut about in half from last night, when he failed to come through for us, but he remains a good option on FanDuel. Romak is dramatically overpriced at $6.0k on DraftKings, however.
LG has one of the higher implied run totals on the night at 5.38, after dropping a huge 14 runs on the Wyverns last night. The game is going to be slightly deceptive for box score watchers, as the Twins benefitted tremendously from an error and several miscues by the Wyverns defense. The Twins strung together hit after hit and kept runners circling the bases but didn’t drive any out of the park. A few near misses, including one that would have been a grand slam, could have made things even more one-sided. The Twins look like a fantastic option here tonight, with Roberto Ramos ($16/$3.0k) remaining underpriced on DraftKings. Ramos has tremendous ability to elevate the ball and is one of the few hitters in the KBO who can truly be considered a home run hitter. Truthfully, despite the fact that they came in the power-happy Pacific Coast League, nothing about the 25-year-old’s minor league history indicates that he should be in the KBO instead of still in the Rockies system. This is someone we’re likely to see back stateside if he succeeds in Korea. Owners can look to stack Ramos with teammates up to the top of the order or down to projected 6-hitter and column favorite Yong-taik Park ($10/$2.1k). As we’ve mentioned, Y.T. is the KBO’s career hits leader, adding to that total last night with a solid 3-run double in his 2nd plate appearance of the 2nd inning. At 41, Park still manages to make solid contact, and isn’t shy about swinging the bat and putting the ball in play. And he gives me hope that maybe I’m not too old to make it in the KBO… now if I only had the talent.
Samsung Lions @ Kiwoom Heroes – 8.5 run total – (3.78/4.91) – Suggested Stack:
The Samsung Lions took down the mighty Heroes last night, with Kiwoom never really getting out of the gate against starter David Buchanan, who did a great job of blowing up our theory about his ability to throw his off-speed stuff. The Lions remain mediocre but affordable up and down the lineup. Dong Yeop Kim ($11/$2.7k) remains an acceptable option and Sang-su Kim ($9/$5.0k) could pair with him, depending on where they appear in the lineup. The pricing discrepancies between sites for both players are a head-scratcher.
The Heroes have a solid run total that is creeping toward 5 tonight. Taking on an unspectacular young lefty, getting to some of the big right-handed bats in this lineup could be a good approach. That said, the Heroes aren’t one of the preferred stacks in Awsemo’s rankings tonight. Taek-kun Lee ($8/$2.2k) is projected to hit 5th and comes inexpensively on both sites. A two-man with him and the always popular and pricey Byung-ho Park ($14/$5.4k) makes for a good alternate approach to the full-stack. Going up in the lineup from those two to fill things out is the blueprint for adding a few more bats to your Kiwoom stack tonight.
Favorite Stack: LG – quality + ownership considered
HR Call: Ji-wan Na (KIA – $7/$3.6k)
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