Friday brought us another wild slate of KBO DFS with a crazy 66 runs scored across the five games. Somehow the Giants played their second 15-10 game in as many days, this time on the side of a losing effort to the Lions. We had a tie game, another disappointing night for the Bears, and a big outburst night with 12 from the Wyverns.
Pitching fell along mostly predictable lines, with the Twins’ Chan-gyu Lim posting the biggest night on the slate in a dominant start over the Eagles. Mike Wright and Aaron Brooks posted serviceable starts, but Chae-heung Choi proved to be the best second starter option at a lower price.
KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters
Totals tonight remain high with only one game carrying a run total below 10.5. There look to be several good spots on the slate again. With one dominant ace taking the hill in Chang-mo Koo and a mostly good pitcher in an excellent matchup in LG’s Woo-chan Cha and wildcard KBO strikeout pitcher Shi-hwan Jang on the slate, ownership will likely be tightly focused on the arms side of KBO DFS, making it critical to find unique angles into the slate with bats.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so.
With lock still hours away (5:00 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Hanwha Eagles @ LG Twins – 9.5 run total (4.03/5.70) – Suggested Stack(s): Twins 3-7
The Eagles were completely shut down last night in a dominant combined three-hit shutout by the Twins pitching staff. The Twins racked up an 8-run win on two home runs by Ji-wan Oh and another by Hyung-jong Lee.
Tonight’s game sees another limited total for the Eagles the 4.03 is second lowest on the slate by nearly two-thirds of a run and they’re simply not a KBO DFS option. The Twins are throwing Woo-chan Cha at them tonight and he looks to be in a good spot despite shaky results this season. There’s not a ton of reason to get to the Eagles here, even as a leverage play against a popular pitcher their talent deficit just leaves too much quality on the table most nights. If you want to go that route Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,400) looked strong in my home run model and is one of two players carrying a good number in Awesemo’s projections for the Eagles. Pairing him with Jin-haeng Choi ($6/$3,100) and picking one other correlated hitter is a sound approach to this team. I prefer the bat and positioning on Ju-suk Ha ($7/$4,100) over his teammates at the top of the lineup, but Eun-won Jung ($9/$3,600) provides similar quality and a touch of price savings.
The Twins look exceedingly popular on DraftKings despite ranking just fifth in Awesemo’s stack tool. Their prices are down increasing the value and pushing up their popularity on that site, while they get a little less attention on FanDuel. Shi-hwan Jang is a pitcher I’ve advocated targeting often, given his propensity to issue too many free passes and make mistakes. The Twins could take advantage here and if you find a unique way in they have tournament-winning upside every night. Hyung-jong Lee ($5/$3,500) is still very cheap on both sites as he rounds into form following a wrist injury that had him out for most of the season. Take advantage when he’s hitting in the middle of this stack. Kang-nam Yoo ($10//$4,600) is a quality play at catcher tonight and looks solid in both my home run model and Awesemo’s projections when it comes to catchers. The top four hitters in this lineup are in play as usual, with Roberto Ramos ($15/$4,700) offering obvious quality as his price drops.
KT Wiz @ NC Dinos – 10.5 run total (3.82/7.00) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos 3-7
These two teams deadlocked at three last night, ending in a tie after twelve innings as-per KBO rules, marking the Dinos second tie in as many weeks. They’ll try to reach a decision tonight, and with Chang-mo Koo on the mound for the Dinos things look extremely slanted in Vegas.
The Wiz are a quality lineup most nights, but they run into Chang-mo Koo here. Koo has utterly dominated the KBO all season long, posting a commanding 2.42 FIP and 30.4% strikeout rate and giving monster score after monster score to KBO DFS owners who roster him. This is not a spot to get too frisky with Wiz bats, they in the bottom few stacks on both sites tonight. There won’t be anyone on them so a few limited deployments of the top few bats is something you can argue for, I’m not sure it will be included in my slate of entries however. In that instance you can’t skip the obvious Mel Rojas Jr. ($18/$6,200) despite his way-too-high price for this spot. Jae-gyun Hwang ($12/$5,500) and Baek-ho Kang ($14/$5,400) would be likely contributors if the Wiz manage to get to Koo or rally late against the weak Dinos bullpen. That’s an expensive price to pay for a bad three-man stack, however. You can mix things up or expand and get even less likely to connect by going to Han-joon Yoo ($9/$3,000) and Jeong-dae Bae ($13/$3,100) but that’s asking a lot. An inexpensive way to approach things would be to punt the top of the lineup and play Yoo, Bae and Sung-woo Jang ($8/$3,100) from late in the lineup but that’s getting into just stupid gambling territory. This lineup is best avoided entirely tonight.
The Dinos once again look like the team to beat tonight, ranking first in stacks on FanDuel and second on DraftKings and carrying the night’s highest implied team total at 7.0 runs. The Dinos get Sung-bum Na ($16/$5,700) back in the lineup and he’s always a rally point for your stack constructions, particularly with a slight reduction in price. His popularity is a tolerable 16% on DraftKings tonight, where the Dinos look slightly under owned in general. On FanDuel things are a bit tighter on the best Dinos bats, Na, Aaron Altherr ($17/$6,000) and Eui-ji Yang ($12/$5,600) are all trending toward 30% ownership on the blue site. The bottom of this order still offers a lot of quality by comparison to other teams in the league. With Hee-dong Kwon ($11/$3,100) dropping to seventh you can build a bottom of the lineup stack that’s arguably better than most main stacks from KBO teams by connecting him to Suk-min Park ($10/$4,400), Jin-hyuk No ($9/$4,500), and Jin-sung Kang ($12/$4,100). The price and positioning on that build is appealing as well, making it a sneaky approach to what will be a justifiably popular team tonight.
Lotte Giants @ Samsung Lions – 10.5 run total (4.65/6.10) – Suggested Stack(s): Giants 1-3-4-5-7
The Giants crazily played in their second straight 15-10 game, but this time came out on the losing end despite another home run from slugger Jun-woo Jeon and a big day from the top of the lineup. The Lions got contributions up and down the batting order, with sixth hitter Sung-gyu Lee contributing a home run and three RBIs.
Tonight’s game carries a juicy 10.5-run game total but most of that falls on the Lions side, with the Giants falling well under five runs against import starter Ben Lively. You could be forgiven for forgetting that Lively is in the KBO, I sure did. He hasn’t started since late May and only managed to get through 13.1 innings in the four appearances he made early in the season. He stretched out with the Lions’ minor league squad but I would expect him to be on something of a pitch count, meaning the Giants could get a bit of sneaky opportunity late against bullpen arms. They rank in the upper-end of the bottom-half of stacks tonight and if that sounds to you like I’m trying to justify this play you’ve obviously been reading for a while. The separation between the teams in the middle is tight again tonight and there’s reason to hope that the Giants can make something happen despite the low total. Their lack of popularity on FanDuel has specific appeal while they’re projecting for more appropriate ownership on DraftKings. The heart of this lineup is where you want to be with Ah-seop Son ($15/$4,000), Dae-ho Lee ($12/$3,800), and Jun-woo Jeon ($13/$3,900) making a perfect core to this team once again. Leadoff hitter Hoon Jung ($9/$3,500) adds a lot of quality but you can’t play him and Chi-hong An ($10/$2,900) in the same DraftKings lineup due to their positional redundancy. Dixon Machado’s ($11/$4,100) projection falls apart the later he hits in the lineup and he doesn’t look very good here.
The Lions 6.1 run implied total is one of the bigger marks on the slate and they look very good in projections. The stack tool ranks them down a bit however and they look a bit overly popular on both sites coming in at 17% team ownership to just 12% probability of being the best stack. The team also loses Tyler Saladino to injury here, due to a mistake on my part we have him in the current lineup projection, so replace him with Dong-yeop Kim in your expectations for that spot in the lineup. The bats to get to are mostly from the middle of the order but they all look too popular for my tastes. Ja-wook Koo ($11/$4,400) is a threat to hit one out and can score points on the basepaths as well. From later in the lineup Hak-ju Lee ($8/$4,500) and Hae-min Park ($9/$3,000) are reasonable bats that can help differentiate things in a popular construction.
Doosan Bears @ Kia Tigers – 11.5 run total (6.24/5.51) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 1-2-3-4-6
The Bears let KBO DFS owners down two nights ago and were quieted by Aaron Brooks over eight strong innings in a 4-2 Tigers victory. Neither side’s bats did anything of note for KBO DFS owners, the only home run in the game came from late in the Tigers lineup and the Bears only picked up two RBIs from catcher Se-hyuk Park.
Tonight’s total climbs to 11.5 and is the highest on the slate by a full run. Both teams are in play with quality implied totals and two middling starters on the hill tonight. The Bears will get Ki-hoon Kim who is making his first start of the year after nine strong performances out of the bullpen. Kim was not so good in 16 starts through 2019 however and is unlikely to stand out here. The Bears rank third on both sites and look like an excellent option with team ownership trending around half of where it should be. Only Kun-woo Park ($13/$4,900) is projected for more than 15% ownership on DraftKings, he remains a fantastic option leading off for this team and in your Bears stacks. Even on FanDuel where he is at 21%, he shouldn’t be left out. Everyone else’s popularity is appealing, on FanDuel no other Bears hitter is above 10% popularity. Jae-il Oh ($14/$4,400), Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,500) and Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$5,700) is a very straightforward approach to this team but sometimes it pays to not overthink things. The quality in additional bats like Kyoung-min Hur ($10/$4,300) and Joo-hwan ChoI ($14/$4,000) provides additional flexibility in price, popularity and position. If you really need to reach, Jae-won Oh ($7/$2,600) works, but I would be wary of him in optimizers, his price will inject him into a lot of your Bears lineups by default if you don’t carefully limit your exposures to where you want them.
The Tigers bats rank in the middle of the stack tool taking on Won-joon Choi here. Choi has had a good season so far, making a whopping 24 appearances to this point in the season but just one start. That game came more than a month ago on June 12h. Choi went five strong innings in that one and struck out seven Eagles hitters, but that matchup was far more favorable to the pitcher than this spot and it remains to be seen how stretched out the pitcher is. I wouldn’t expect more than five innings. The bats in the heart of the Tigers lineup look good here. Preston Tucker ($17/$5,800) is one of the top bats in the league and makes a good starting point for a straight line through the top of the order as usual. Hyung-woo Choi ($15/$5,000) and Ji-wan Na ($11/$3,800) look strong again in my home run model and in Awesemo’s projections. KBO DFS owners can play that trio or get a bit different with things by using Chang-jin Lee ($5/$3,100) from the top of the lineup in place of one of them while adding a later hitter. Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,000) will be one of the more popular Tigers bats however, and no one after him in the lineup looks too good in projections, making this more appealing as a small-stack top of the lineu play only.
Kiwoom Heroes @ SK Wyverns – 10.5 run total (5.81/4.93) – Suggested Stack(s): Heroes 1-5
The night’s second highest scoring game saw the Wyverns post a big 12-run outburst while the Heroes gamely fought back with nine in a losing effort. The game saw several home runs and key contributions for KBO DFS owners who got to these teams coming from Jung-hoo Lee and Hye-sung Kim on the Heroes side, while the Wyverns spread scoring across most of the top of their lineup.
The Heroes are the heavy favorites in tonight’s game but are only the fourth-highest implied total on the slate. They are popping in both Awesemo’s projections and the stack tool tonight, ranking first on DraftKings and second on FanDuel, although they are pulling a lot of popularity again here. Byung-ho Park ($12/$4,800) is too cheap and is carrying a huge projection, his popularity will be through the roof tonight on both sites. The entire top of this lineup is going to be highly owned on DraftKings, putting a bat like Jeong-hyeop Heo ($7/$2,300) firmly in play if he’s hitting high up in the lineup at his price and current popularity number. Beyond Heo it’s difficult to mix this team up, but among the chalky bats you’ll want to be sure to include Keon-chang Seo ($13/$4,900) up top and mix and match everyone in between him and Heo. Byung-woo Jeon ($7/$2,600) makes a quality option to provide some flexibility late but even he will be owned significantly here.
The Wyverns outbursts have been unpredictable throughout the KBO DFS season and it’s challenging to capitalize on these bats. The lineup is basically whole once again, however, and the matchup against Hyun-hee Han isn’t a bad one. Han’s biggest strength so far has been his ability to limit the long ball and that appears to be limiting the projection on the Wyverns to some degree. They rank near the bottom of stacks on both sites and there’s not much to fall in love with in the projections or the home run model. Projected two-hitter Joon-woo Choi ($2,500) looks like a dead spot in the lineup, making it difficult to build from the top down with a gap here. Jeong Choi ($14/$5,300) and ledoff man Ji-hoon Choi ($6/$2,700) on either side of him make stronger options hitting ahead of sluggers Jamie Romak ($12/$4,600) and Dong-min Han ($8/$4,300) but there’s not a ton to get excited about late in the batting order. Jong-wook Ko ($6/$3,700) has been bad so far this season but has shown more quality than this in other seasons, he is someone you can plug in if you need a cross your fingers and hope type of play here.
Favorite KBO DFS Stack: Kiwoom Heroes
HR Call: Jae-hwan Kim (Doosan Bears)
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