MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

Baseball marathon! On a day that had a little bit of everything for baseball fans, including a record four-hour, 50-minute nine-inning game between the Yankees and Indians. That game featured multiple rain delays and a playoff record tying 19 walks, not to mention a 10-8 score, so the length makes some sense. The day also started with the Reds and Braves playing a 0-0 game into the 12th inning after an incredible pitching duel between Trevor Bauer and Max Fried. Baseball is so much fun, and with a lot of the slate going to plan, we saw some familiar names at or near the top of MLB DFS GPP standings on possibly the last big tournament day of the season.

With just five games on tomorrow’s slate, which was not released until after all games were settled well after 1 a.m. EST, we have less to choose from and should see more concentrated ownership. Getting to some of the right bats at low ownership will be key yet again, so check back for Stack Slants in the morning after we see what Awesemo’s top stacks board looks like.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 6.73

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 12.91

Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal – 7.08

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez – 12.47

Houston Astros: n/a

Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Turner – 4.18

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar – 2.95

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun – 10.03

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Ramon Laureano – 9.88

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. – 5.27

St. Louis Cardinals: Brad Miller – 4.46

Tampa Bay Rays: n/a

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics – White Sox – 9-1-2-3-4 – Madrigal – Anderson – Moncada – Grandal – Abreu

One of our favorite teams all year long should have one of the better implied team totals on the slate in their matchup against lefty Sean Manaea. The pitcher had a good season overall; in his 54.0 innings he put up a 3.77 xFIP to a 4.50 ERA and struck out 20.3% of hitters. However, the White Sox were baseball’s best team against left-handed pitching, with a .238 ISO and a WRC+ 43% above average. The team struck out just 21.7% of the time in the split while walking 10.1%. They should be a great option tomorrow and could go somewhat under-owned based on pricing.

The White Sox have been one of our favorites in this space all year. The team is loaded from top to bottom and provides excellent stacking options. Against lefties their numbers have been eye popping. Leadoff man Tim Anderson is a $4,900 shortstop on DraftKings, while $4,000 will pay for him at the same spot on FanDuel. Anderson hit 10 home runs and stole five bases in 2020, continuing his trend of speed and power from the last few seasons. He also hit .322/.357/.529 with a WRC+ 43% above average, making for an excellent leadoff man. In his 55 plate appearances against lefties, Anderson had a .551 ISO with a WRC+ 200% above average.

Yoan Moncada slots in at third base for $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. He struggled through much of 2020 but still managed a WRC+ just 3% below average overall, which climbs to 5% above average against left-handed pitching. In 2019, Moncada hit .315/.367/.548 over 559 plate appearances. That’s the real version of this player. Pay the salary for him.

Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion can all fit into your first base spot on DraftKings. Grandal is a catcher on FanDuel and has that eligibility on DraftKings as well, allowing us to play two of the titanic trio on either site. Of the three, Abreu had by far the best season at .317/.370/.617 with 19 home runs and a .300 ISO. Grandal hits from both sides of the plate and provides a dynamic bat in the catcher slot for just $4,200. The price could make him popular on DraftKings. Keep an eye on ownership projections. The backstop hit eight home runs and had a .193 ISO with a WRC+ 17% above average this season.

Encarnacion had a rough year but still showed plenty of power when he made contact. In 181 plate appearances, the first baseman put up just a .157/.250/.377 slash, but he still managed a .220 ISO. His WRC+ was a concerning 29% below average overall, though against lefties it climbs to just 8% below. His ISO against lefties climbs to .303, third on the team behind Anderson’s ridiculous mark and Abreu’s .308.

The White Sox are likely to be without star outfielder Eloy Jimenez again tomorrow. If he’s in the lineup, he would be hitting around fifth and would be a spectacular option. In his place, I’m happy to get to some Luis Robert out of the six spot in the batting order. Robert had a monster rookie season, hitting 11 home runs and stealing nine bases in his 227 plate appearances. He cooled over the back end of the short season, or what would have been a slow May in a normal year. It would have been very interesting to see where Robert’s numbers landed over a full 162-game season. Even with a .233 average and a .302 on-base percentage, Robert managed a WRC+ 1% above average, which climbs to 23% above in matchups against southpaws. He also hit for plenty of power, boasting a .220 ISO. Robert is a fine option alone or combined with a returning Jimenez.

Adam Engel had a big MLB DFS game already in this playoffs and costs the bare minimum on DraftKings at $2,000. He’s priced at $2,300 on FanDuel, because 2020 is just weird. Engel hits from the right side of the plate and managed three home runs in his 93 plate appearances this season. Following Engel in the projected lineup is Leury Garcia, who slots in at either second base or shortstop at just $3,700 on DraftKings, $2,400 on FanDuel. Garcia is an intriguing late-lineup option that might go overlooked. He’s by no means a star, but at the price there’s just enough upside that we can consider him in some stacks.

The hitter I prefer at the end of the lineup is Nick Madrigal. The light-on-power second baseman is a hit-tool specialist and put up a .340/.376/.369 slash in his first 109 plate appearances in the Show this season. The price tag and the ability to set the table for the hitters atop this lineup are the things in which I’m most interested. Madrigal costs just $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel. He’s an ideal wraparound at a non-premium position.

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves – Reds – 2-6 – Castellanos – Votto – Suarez – Moustakas – Winker

After getting blanked across 12 innings on Wednesday, the Reds will be back at it tomorrow in Atlanta taking on rookie hurler Ian Anderson. The right-handed starter did well in his debut 32.1 innings, putting up a 3.45 xFIP that somewhat betrayed his sparkling 1.95 ERA. More impressively, Anderson struck out 29.7% of hitters he faced, though he did walk 10.1%. Through his career in the minors his walk rate was typically well above 10%, something he’ll need to get under control for sustained success in the majors, and a definite factor in this matchup.

The Reds were sixth in baseball with a .197 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They did strike out 25.6% of the time, so Anderson could post a decent amount of strikeouts in some versions of this game, but they also walk 12.1% of the time, showing their patience as a team which could be an issue.

The Reds lineup is somewhat unpredictable with Nick Senzel back and the way in which they deploy hitters in the leadoff role. We could see Shogo Akiyama, a lefty, draw the start against the right-handed pitcher, or we could see lefty Jesse Winker leadoff instead of hitting down lineup. If Senzel is in the lineup at all he’s a strong option at just $2,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The outfielder had a rough 78 plate appearances in 2020 with just two home runs and a .186/.247/.357 slash and a WRC+ 44% below average, but there is plenty of known upside in the player. In 414 plate appearances in 2019, Senzel hit 12 home runs and stole 14 bases. He’s a good MLB DFS option for the price.

If it’s Akiyama in the leadoff spot, he’s an option that I will use but am less excited about. Akiyama did a good job getting on base against right-handed pitching this season, showing tremendous plate discipline with just a 16.9% strikeout rate and a 15.0% walk rate in his 160 plate appearances in the split. He provided no power and still had a WRC+ 8% below average, but he can set the table for hitters behind him when he’s up top.

The rest of the lineup is more predictable. Nicholas Castellanos should be hitting second and is in play for Reds stacks at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel. Castellanos has become more of an all-or-nothing hitter in his brief Reds tenure, hitting 14 home runs but going juts .225/.298/.486 in 242 plate appearances this year. Against righties, Castellanos had a .263 ISO and a WRC+ 5% above average in 2020, he’s an excellent option.

Veteran first baseman Joey Votto is priced at a friendly $4,300 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel. Votto hit 11 home runs in his 223 plate appearances though he had a low .226/.354/.446 slash in 2020. The first baseman’s WRC+ was 14% above average and he’s a strong option again tomorrow. If Votto were a bit faster, or if the Reds had pinch run for him late in the game like some of us were calling for, he might have scored the winning run in Wednesday’s contest, instead he was held at third base, where he proceeded to consume an entire lasagna.

The Reds bring a ton of power through the middle of the lineup from Castellanos through the seven spot at least. Perhaps most prominent in that group, Eugenio Suarez plays third base and costs just $3,400 on tomorrow’s DraftKings slate, less than his price on FanDuel. This is a misprice that should be exploited. Suarez has struggled in 2020 but is a first-degree power hitter. The right-handed slugger still managed a team-leading 15 home runs despite going just .202/.312/.470 on the season. He had a .268 ISO and still created runs at a pace 4% above average. And there is the small matter of the 49 home runs we saw him hit just last season in his 662 plate appearances.

Mike Moustakas hits from the left side of the plate and is a great one-two punch with Suarez. Moustakas hit just eight home runs in his 163 plate appearances in year one with the Reds, seven of them against right-handed pitching. The third baseman had a monster .278 ISO and a WRC+ 22% above average against opposite-handed pitching this season and is the best power-hitting second base option on most slates.

Outfielder Aristides Aquino is back in the Reds lineup, and he costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel. Aquino hit two home runs in his 56 plate appearances this season and 19 in his 225 opportunities last year. There is obvious power in the bat, though it is not easy to nail down exactly who he is. The spot in the lineup and the projection in my home run model are more than enough to justify the play for me here, however.

Winker needs no justification. The outfielder hit 12 home runs and put up a .255/.388./.544 slash with a .289 ISO and a WRC+ 46% above average. He’s hitting seventh in the projected lineup but could find himself higher if the Reds shake things up. Winker is a fantastic option for just $3,900 on DraftKings and he’s ridiculously underpriced on FanDuel at $2,800. The lefty had a .304 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2020 with a WRC+ 48% above average. He also walked 16.9% of the time against the opposite hand, showing his hitting quality and patience at the plate. This is one of the hitters who could easily exploit the matchup against a walk-prone pitcher.

The Reds will likely roll out Freddy Galvis and Tucker Barnhart in the last two spots of the lineup in an attempt to gain the platoon advantage. The other options would be right-handed hitting Curt Casali and Kyle Farmer. Galvis slots in at second base or shortstop and costs $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. He hit seven home runs in his 159 plate appearances in 2020 and had 23 in 589 opportunities last season. Galvis is an intriguing low-owned option late in this lineup. Barnhart provides some inexpensive power in the catcher spot. He hit five home runs in 110 plate appearances this season and owned a .215 ISO against righties. Either player is a functional mix and match option, though Barnhart could see high ownership depending on how things fall with value.

HR Call: Matt Olson (Athletics)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.