MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

Day 1 of playoff MLB DFS yielded several low-scoring affairs and one big outburst from our favorite low-owned stack. The Yankees 12-run outburst was triple that of the next-highest-scoring teams on the slate, and several of their sluggers were mandatory pieces of accessing the top of GPP standings. With several of the big pitchers delivering on expectations, nailing the exact right stacks was crucial tonight.

Tomorrow’s slate has all 16 teams in action across eight games. The main slates have early afternoon start times and feature all the games, making for a nice, robust slate with a ton of options. We’ll be back early in the morning with Stack Slants for two less chalky options. As usual, I expect the teams below to be high quality but popular.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. – 10.10

Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ – 8.17

Chicago White Sox: Edwin Encarnacion – 5.73

Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino – 13.12

Cleveland Indians: Franmil Reyes – 9.85

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman – 7.91

Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager – 6.20

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson – 6.72

Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura – 10.09

Minnesota Twins: Eddie Rosario – 9.60

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton – 17.32

Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha – 2.10

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 9.33

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt – 15.56

Tampa Bay Rays: Hunter Renfroe – 10.04

Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez – 8.23

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres – Padres – 7-8-1-2-3 – Pham – Profar – Tatis – Machado – Hosmer

The battle of the saints kicks off in California tomorrow with lefty Kwang Hyun Kim taking the mound for the Cardinals. Depending on how the top stacks tool looks tomorrow, there’s a chance we could come back to this game for some Cardinals bats against Chris Paddack, though there are several more appealing spots that could go under-owned. For now, we’re taking a look at the pricey Padres.

Kim had what looks on the surface like a solid 39-inning debut for the Cardinals this season, though his 4.52 xFIP belies some of the quality in his 1.62 ERA. The hurler was the beneficiary of a very low .217 BABIP against, relying on a lot of luck and defense to get him through, while striking out just 15.6% of hitters. His swinging strike rate of just 7.3% is far below average and is going to cost him against a lineup like this.

The Padres have been one of baseball’s best offenses and options for MLB DFS lineups all season long. The Padres active roster had a .182 ISO and a WRC+ 4% above average against left-handed pitching in 2020. With their two superstars leading off and hitting second, the Padres waste no time getting the lineup going.

Fernando Tatis Jr. costs $5,300 on DraftKings and $4,300 on FanDuel and is well worth it as one of the best shortstops in both real life baseball and DFS. Tatis hit 17 home runs in his 257 plate appearances this season, a year after hitting 22 in 372 plate appearances as a rookie. He was second in the league in runs scored with 50 and had a WRC+ 49% above average with a .295 ISO. Tatis even threw in 11 stolen bases as if that wasn’t enough fantasy scoring already. He’s a must in Padres stacks.

Manny Machado is an equally talented star who had an arguably better year. His .304/.370/.580 slash with 16 home runs and a .277 ISO with a matching WRC+ 49% above average is well worth paying up to his $5,500 price on DraftKings. He’s too cheap at $4,000 on FanDuel.

Eric Hosmer hits from the left side of the plate and suffers somewhat in same-handed splits at just .250/.297/.364 with a WRC+ 21% below average for his career. Still, if this team gets to the starter, he could see numerous opportunities against bullpen arms. He’s likely to go under-owned for the spot in the lineup, though he’s pricey at $4,900 on DraftKings.

Wil Myers is another expensive bat in this lineup who has absolutely earned his price. The slugging outfielder had a terrific short-season with his .288/.353/.606 slash and 15 home runs in 218 plate appearances. Against left-handed pitching Myers has a .328 ISO and a WRC+ 76% above average this season.

Austin Nola could be a good catcher option on DraftKings at his $4,500 price tag tomorrow, depending on ownership. His right-handed pop could come in handy. In 184 plate appearances, Nola hit seven home runs and had a .199 ISO with a WRC+ 26% above average. He struggled against left-handed pitching with just a .135 ISO and a WRC+ 35% below average this season, though the 58 plate appearance sample is very little to act on and is probably best ignored. In his 148 plate appearances in the split dating to the start of the 2019 season, Nola has a .223 ISO and a WRC+ 7% above average. He also strikes out just 17.6% of the time while walking 11.5% in the sample. This is a quality hitter against lefties.

Jake Cronenworth is in the projected lineup but might be best left aside. In his 61 plate appearances against same-handed pitching since last season started, the second baseman has just a .036 ISO and a WRC+ 42% below average while posting a .218/.295/.255 slash and a 23% strikeout rate.

Tommy Pham is a hitter I am far more interested in from late in this lineup. Pham is at a big discount on DraftKings at just $3,600 and on FanDuel at $2,800. The outfielder missed a large chunk of the season after breaking a hamate bone in his hand, a notoriously difficult injury from which to recover. Still, this is a player who hit 23 home runs in 2017 and 21 in each of 2018 and 2019. He also stole 25 bases in both 2019 and 2017, while swiping just 15 in 2018. Pham is a dynamic option for MLB DFS and should be owned accordingly.

Jurickson Profar and Trent Grisham provide interesting options at the end of the lineup. Grisham fared reasonably handling same-handed pitching since the start of last season. In his 103 opportunities, Grisham has a .250/.324/.413 slash with a WRC+ just 2% below average and a .163 ISO, which isn’t great but is better than the lefty gets credit for in the split. Between the platoon and the limited opportunity late in the lineup, plus the $4,700 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel, Grisham isn’t my favorite option. I prefer Profar.

The switch-hitting outfielder costs just $3,700 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. In his 202 plate appearances this season, Profar quietly had a nice year with a .278/.343/.428 slash, seven home runs and a WRC+ 11% above average as well as seven stolen bases. Profar came into the league with a reasonable amount of prospect hype and is still just 27 years old. In both 2018 and 2019 he hit 20 home runs, but I bet you don’t remember any of them. He added 19 stolen bases across those two seasons and also provides the benefit of putting the ball in play a fair amount with just a 16.4% strikeout rate for his career. It should be noted that he does get more of his power from the other side of the plate in matchups against left-handed pitching, but he should still be a fine option for our purposes.

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs – Cubs – 1-2-4-5-6 – Happ – Rizzo – Heyward – Bryant – Schwarber

I’m taking a stab at this one as there’s no game total released for it while I’m writing this. I expect the Cubs to have one of the slate’s more favorable implied team totals in their matchup against Sandy Alcantara on what looks to be a low-scoring overall slate. Alcantara had a sound 4.04 xFIP to his 3.00 ERA this season, benefiting somewhat from a .274 BABIP against. In his 42.0 innings, the pitcher had a 22.7% strikeout rate, though his career mark is just 19.2% and he did not increase his swinging strike rate, suggesting he gained from some happenstance in a small sample.

Many of the best hitters in the Cubs lineup had terrible seasons at the plate in 2020. It’s a miracle the team made even an expanded 16-game playoffs with their stars struggling as much as they did. Still, this team could catch fire in a playoff run, and they make a dangerous stack against any pitcher. As one of the better overall matchups on a slate with numerous ace-caliber starters going, the Cubs look like a strong stacking option.

Ian Happ hits from both sides of the plate, and if you’ve been reading along all year, you already know we’re all over him as an option at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel. The outfielder had a .258/.361/.505 slash with a .247 ISO and a WRC+ 31% above average and 12 home runs, mostly from the leadoff spot this season. Over 295 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since the start of last season, Happ has a .308 ISO against righties. I have no idea why he’s priced this low; take advantage.

Anthony Rizzo was the best of the Cubs’ struggling stars at just .222/.342/.414 with a WRC+ 3% above average. He hit 11 home runs and had a .192 ISO on the year. Rizzo has a .238 ISO and a WRC+ 39% above average in the split if we go back to just the start of last season. Don’t let this year’s slump put you off this hitter in Cubs stacks.

With several of the other hitters moved down in the lineup, Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward have hit higher in the order recently. The catcher, Contreras, costs $4,700 on DraftKings and could be a quality pay-up-to-be-contrarian option if he’s going overlooked. At just $2,800 on FanDuel, he’s in play despite the lack of requirement to play catchers.

Heyward had a strong year at .265/.392/.456 with six home runs and a WRC+ 30% above average in his 181 plate appearances. The lefty costs just $3,800 and could hit anywhere from third through seventh in this lineup, depending on what the Cubs run out.

The struggles of superstar third baseman Kris Bryant, outfielder Kyle Schwarber and shortstop Javier Baez would be a major story in a normal baseball season. The trio had a sub-Mendoza combined batting average for the year while putting up an embarrassing lack of power and run creation.

Bryant had a .206/.293/.351 slash with just four home runs in his 147 plate appearances with a WRC+ 24% below average. Schwarber managed to hit 11 home runs and boost his WRC+ to just 10% below average, but he had a .188/.308/.393 slash on his way to doing so. Baez was the worst of the bunch with just a .203/.238/.360 slash and a WRC+ 43% below average. Still, these are proven hitters and this is a short weird year.

Since the start of 2019, Schwarber is second on the team with a .283 ISO and a WRC+ 20% above average against right-handed pitching. He still strikes out 25.3% of the time while walking 12.8% so he’s a three-true-outcomes hitter but well worth it at discounted salary and ownership. Baez and Bryant rank fifth and sixth on the team with .211 and .205 ISOs in the same sample. There is a ton of potentially ignored quality with these hitters.

Bringing up the end of the lineup, we should see left-handed second baseman Jason Kipnis, who costs just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel and is fine as a mix-and-match option. He could serve as a functional wraparound option at a non-premium position in limited deployments as well, if you’re inclined to sacrificing a plate appearance in favor of low-owned upside. Victor Caratini is in the projected lineup hitting ninth. If he’s in the spot, he could be an oddball catcher pivot at just $2,300 on DraftKings.

HR Call: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.