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MLB DFS Picks: Mike Clevinger & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, September 19 (FREE)

Josh Engleman



Josh Engleman breaks down his favorite MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MLB DFS, including Mike Clevinger and more.

MLB Picks: Thursday, September 19th has a three-game set at 12:10pm ET. DraftKings and FantasyDraft will be doing a five-game main slate at 6:35pm ET. Meanwhile, FanDuel and Yahoo will be going with a four-game main slate at 7:05pm ET. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.  

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For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here

I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

Walker Buehler$1020039.213.7%
James Paxton$980034.29.0%
Jose Berrios$960035.711.0%
Dallas Keuchel$900028.43.7%
Tyler Glasnow$880027.53.1%
Anthony Desclafani$840030.44.2%
Mike Fiers$830027.91.6%
Dakota Hudson$790025.40.9%
Marcus Stroman$780030.53.4%
Eric Lauer$770024.11.9%
Austin Voth$760023.70.9%
Vince Velasquez$760030.23.5%
Zach Plesac$740023.11.4%
Jose Urquidy$700026.61.5%
Justus Sheffield$690021.40.6%
Pablo Lopez$680026.03.9%
Alec Mills$680021.90.6%
Johnny Cueto$670022.91.2%
Nathan Eovaldi$650025.01.9%
T.J. Zeuch$630015.90.2%
Asher Wojciechowski$600019.00.9%
Steven Brault$590025.41.1%
Zach Davies$570018.61.0%
Taylor Clarke$560018.40.3%
Antonio Senzatela$560018.80.4%
Patrick Sandoval$550015.70.2%
Joseph Palumbo$550011.60.1%
Eric Skoglund$550015.30.3%

DraftKings MLB

Walker Buehler$1170021.812.4%
James Paxton$1120018.38.4%
Jose Berrios$1080019.19.9%
Marcus Stroman$1030016.23.2%
Anthony Desclafani$990016.54.1%
Dallas Keuchel$960015.43.4%
Johnny Cueto$930012.01.2%
Austin Voth$900012.00.9%
Justus Sheffield$870010.50.6%
Zach Plesac$850011.41.4%
Dakota Hudson$810012.60.9%
Mike Fiers$790014.61.6%
Jose Urquidy$750014.01.4%
Eric Lauer$720012.51.9%
Tyler Glasnow$690014.83.1%
Alec Mills$690011.00.7%
Patrick Sandoval$67007.40.2%
Pablo Lopez$650014.03.7%
Vince Velasquez$620016.03.3%
T.J. Zeuch$59007.50.2%
Eric Skoglund$56007.10.3%
Antonio Senzatela$54008.60.4%
Joseph Palumbo$54005.50.1%
Asher Wojciechowski$52008.80.9%
Zach Davies$47008.81.0%
Taylor Clarke$45009.30.4%
Steven Brault$430012.81.1%
Nathan Eovaldi$410013.11.9%

Yahoo MLB

Walker Buehler$5423.311.4%
James Paxton$4520.09.0%
Mike Fiers$4216.31.7%
Jose Berrios$4221.29.0%
Tyler Glasnow$3915.84.5%
Vince Velasquez$3817.43.8%
Anthony Desclafani$3718.24.3%
Taylor Clarke$3510.40.6%
Dallas Keuchel$3417.63.3%
Pablo Lopez$3416.14.0%
Marcus Stroman$3317.93.2%
Zach Plesac$3313.21.5%
Nathan Eovaldi$3314.52.6%
Eric Lauer$3214.52.1%
Steven Brault$3214.31.3%
Johnny Cueto$3213.61.5%
Dakota Hudson$3214.21.0%
Alec Mills$3112.60.8%
Austin Voth$3113.71.0%
Jose Urquidy$2815.81.7%
Asher Wojciechowski$2610.41.1%
Justus Sheffield$2612.00.8%
Antonio Senzatela$2610.40.5%
Patrick Sandoval$258.60.3%
T.J. Zeuch$259.00.3%
Joseph Palumbo$256.30.2%
Eric Skoglund$258.60.4%
Zach Davies$2510.51.2%

Mike Clevinger

On one of the shortest main slates we’ve had this season, Clevinger stands out as the top option by a mile. You’ll be surprised to know that facing the Detroit Tigers makes starting pitchers look better. When they already have a base as an excellent starter, the sky is the limit. The Tigers are abysmal is most offensive metrics, while Clevinger is striking out…42.6% of righties in 2019! He has been incredible this year, and this start should be no different. Do whatever you can to get him in your lineups. His ceiling is massive.

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Mike Montgomery

The problem with playing a lot of Clevinger is that you’ll need to find a cheap pitcher to pair him with. We have two options tonight, and one of them is WAY worse than the other. Montgomery is the flat minimum on DraftKings in a matchup with the Twins. Clearly, there’s a lot to be scared of. The Twins destroy the baseball. Montgomery isn’t exactly a strikeout maestro, and he’s had some issues with power this season. It doesn’t line up well at all. But minimum salary is minimum salary. If Montgomery opens up enough salary for Clevinger and a decent stack, I’ll be doing it. On Yahoo, it’s a bit trickier and he’s priced at $30, but I still think he’s the best pay-down option tonight.

Other Option?

If you’re not looking to Clevinger, Kyle Gibson is my second priority across all three sites. The price is manageable, and the matchup with the Royals is, at worst, neutral. It strikes as a relatively low-risk spot, with the potential for a big pay off due to his price.

Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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