MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

Mitch Keller sure made things interesting for MLB DFS owners with his seven walk roller coaster of a performance tonight. A few too many of my lineups had the value pitcher in and, while he wasn’t entirely tragic, he didn’t get us where we needed to be. Ultimately, the wrong bats were my downfall on the night, getting too much of a few stacks that missed was a bigger part of the problem.

With several of the other value pitchers coming through, including an unexpected performance from Sandy Alcantara against the Yankees, and Yu Darvish chalk connecting solidly, there was a fairly broad thread of constructions getting to the top of GPP standings. The same should be true tomorrow, we have a few quality pitchers, a few good bargain plays and some excellent looking stacks available on what is the last real slate of the regular season.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun – 5.72

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna – 11.70

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez – 14.14

Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ – 10.87

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada – 10.88

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez – 12.65

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez – 14.14

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado – 21.65

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera – 8.42

Houston Astros: George Springer – 12.25

Kansas City Royals: Maikel Franco – 11.13

Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton – 9.64

Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts – 6.70

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Dan Vogelbach – 4.50

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson – 2.04

New York Mets: n/a

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: n/a

Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper – 15.39

Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Bell – 6.93

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 9.80

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt – 4.30

Seattle Mariners: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt – 4.61

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe – 2.95

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 6.98

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: n/a

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers – Astros – 1-3-4-5-6 – George Springer – Michael Brantley – Alex Bregman – Kyle Tucker – Yuli Gurriel

The Astros are drawing the slate’s highest implied team total in early action in their matchup against Kyle Gibson. The starter has had a rough time of it in 2020, though a little of it is attributable to bad luck with his 4.42 xFIP compared to a 5.87 ERA. The right-handed starter has struck out just 19.5% of hitters this season, down from his career peak of the last two years, but still slightly above his career average. Limiting power and the home run ball has been a concern this season, Gibson has allowed 12 home runs in his 61.1 innings. This Astros offense packs a lot of punch and they could chase Gibson early then gnaw on this weak Rangers bullpen for a while.

The Astros start things off with George Springer as always. The outfielder has a .274 ISO and a WRC+ 53% above average against right handed pitching this season and is an easy plug and play. Overall he has 14 home runs and a WRC+ 45% above average which justifies his $5,500 price on DraftKings. At $4,100 he’s just too cheap on FanDuel.

Jose Altuve is a player we’ve touched on time and again this season due to his struggles. The second baseman is up to .225/.288/.341 this season, which is a terrible slash for a player who has been on or near a Hall of Fame hitting track for much of his career. Altuve is sitting 24% below average creating runs this season and he has just a .126 ISO against same-handed pitching. This is a tough player for the public to pay up for, which puts him immediately in play for me in Astros stacks.

Michael Brantley and Alex Bregman provide a lot of pop and run production in the three and four spots in this lineup. The duo are underpriced again at just $4,000 for Brantley and $4,800 for Bregman. Brantley has a .305/.367/.488 slash on the year with five home runs in his 180 plate appearances. The lefty has a .202 ISO and gets on base at a .402 clip against right-handed pitching this year. Bregman is having a down year, but that’s why we’re getting him for these prices. On FanDuel he costs a laughable $3,800. The third baseman is a star hitter, in 2019 he hit 41 home runs, scored 122 times and drove in 112 in his 690 plate appearances. This season he’s at just .254/.361/.458 with five home runs. Let others skip him.

Kyle Tucker has been the catalyst for this team throughout the season. The lefty outfielder is priced at just $4,200 on DraftKings despite his nine home runs and 42 RBIs on the year. He has a .256 ISO and WRC+ 26% above average on the year and hits right-handed pitching to the tune of a .271 ISO and a WRC+ 45% above average.

The back-end of the Astros lineup provides higher-end hitting options than many teams. There are several quality veterans having years of varying quality in the lineup. Yuli Gurriel costs just $3,700 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel with his .235/.279/.395 slash and just six home runs. Carlos Correa s having the best year of this group at only .256/.321/.364 though he has just a .108 ISO on the season. Josh Reddick hits from the left side of the plate and has a .130 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. All of these are mix and match options for me, though Correa is my favorite of the bunch given his ability to go overlooked at a premium position.

Martin Maldonado brings up the end of the lineup and provides a veteran catcher presence for the Astros in real life. In MLB DFS he’s a take it or leave it option who you can click into a few Astros builds, but he’s by no means my favorite catching option on the slate despite his $4,200 price tag on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel. Maldonado has a .154 slash with a WRC+ 11% below average against right-handed pitchers.

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants – Padres – 1-5 – Trent Grisham – Fernando Tatis Jr. – Manny Machado – Eric Hosmer – Tommy Pham

The Padres are taking on veteran hurler Johnny Cueto in San Francisco tomorrow night and they look to be in a fantastic spot. The team could end up under-owned again, depending on what the public thinks of their relatively high pricing on the top-end. There are values late in the lineup that I expect will bring things up in general. This could be a good case of looking at the individual ownership within a chalky team paying off, so be sure to check that out tomorrow.

Cueto’s best days are long since gone. The right-handed starter has gotten somewhat unlucky with a 4.86 xFIP to a 5.53 ERA in his 57.0 innings so far this season. Cueto has 20.6% strikeout rate despite just an 8.6% swinging strike rate this season, there’s not much to fear in terms of rallying killing strikeouts with this starter anymore.

The Padres have been one of the best offenses in baseball all season long. Against right-handed pitching they rank third in ISO at .220 and have a WRC+ 20% above average. The team should have Trent Grisham leading off against a bad right-handed pitcher. The outfielder costs $4,600 on DraftKings and only $3,200 on FanDuel. He brings some power to the plate with his nine home runs and .190 ISO on the year and he’s done a good job creating runs at a clip 16% better than average.

With stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado following him in the lineup, Grisham should focus on getting on base and letting those sluggers drive him in. Tatis has been enjoying an explosive trajectory to superstardom. The kid has a .278/.369/.561 slash on the season with 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases, and he’s rapidly running away with the title of best second-generation star, particularly for MLB DFS purposes.

Machado is an established star that people started to forget about a bit with his move to San Diego a few years ago. The third baseman is reminding everyone of his quality with a .313/.376/.603 slash with 16 home runs and a WRC+ 56% above average this season. The left-side of the Padres infield will cost you $10,900 total on DraftKings but they’re very worth it in this spot.

Mitch Moreland has added some quality lefty lumber to the lineup lately and the team got fellow southpaw first baseman Eric Hosmer back from injury. The pair should provide a touch matchup for Cueto in the middle of the lineup, likely with Tommy Pham hitting in between in the five-spot. This trio makes for an interesting three-man stack in the middle of the Padres lineup. Hosmer was having a very good season before hitting the injured list. The veteran was at .278/.331/.526 with nine home runs an a WRC+ 29% above average. Moreland arrived from the Red Sox at the deadline and is a splits monster. Against right-handed pitching, the lefty has a ludicrous .330 ISO and a WRC+ 47% above average against right-handed pitchers this year.

Pham is back from the injured list as well. In what might be the world record for recovery from a hamate bone injury, the outfielder surprised everyone by making it back well before the postseason, let alone 2021. The Padres lineup gets a boost with Pham’s return, the outfielder provides a solid blend of power and speed, though this season he’s at just a .208/.315/.281 slash on the year. Last season Pham had a .273/.369/.450 slash on the season with 21 home runs in his 654 plate appearances.

Wil Myers and Austin Nola are both playable right-handed bats from late in the lineup. Nola is a reasonable option for some low-owned power at the catcher position tomorrow. He costs just $4,600 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. In his 171 plate appearances in 2020, the backstop has a .265/.345/.470 slash with seven home runs. Myers slots into the outfield and is quietly having a monster year with a .291/.356/.603 slash, a .312 ISO and 14 home runs. Myers costs $4,800 and should actually be more expensive than that. Get him in your Padres stacks. Jake Cronenworth has been a sneaky option at second base with his .304/.376/.509 slash but he’s priced up at $4,800 and I feel like we can do better at the position. He’s a mix and match option for me.

HR Call: Trevor Story (Rockies)

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page, just click HERE.

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.