MLB Picks: Saturday, September 21st gives us a 9-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
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MLB DFS Picks
Fried looks to be in a favorable spot tonight at a reasonable price on the two-pitcher sites. The matchup against the Giants looks above average in strikeouts (Giants are striking out 23.1% of the time versus lefties), power (.154 ISO vs. LHP), and limiting baserunners (.316 OBP vs. LHP). Fried is fanning over 28% of lefties with a respectable 23.7% of righties this year and a sub-seven % walk-rate in total. The park isn’t the best for pitching, but the Giants’ roster is underwhelming overall, so I’ll be looking to take advantage on a slate with few top-tier options.
Berrios is the classic “better real-life pitcher than DFS pitcher” that we often talk about, but his fantastic chase-rate (36.8%) and ability to limit damage puts him in play as one of the top options on this slate. The Royals are a quality matchup for a righty pitcher overall, as they rank 18th in strikeout percentage versus righties, 21st in OBP, 25th in ISO, and 22nd in wRC+, so Berrios, who is a massive favorite tonight, is in as good of a spot as anyone. While he may be a bit overpriced on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, he makes sense to pay up for because we don’t have an abundance of expensive bats we’re missing out on in GPPs.
Manaea’s return has been quite a success thus far, as he’s gone 18 innings with 21 strikeouts in his 3 starts while allowing just one run in total. Tonight, he gets a matchup against a Texas Rangers team that he mowed down for six innings last week. We should see a bunch of ownership going to Manaea because of the matchup, but it’s hard to argue with it when you dig into just how good this spot is. Not only is it an advantageous park for pitching, but the Rangers have a league-worst 73 wRC+ vs. LHP, a 26.3% K%, and .295 OBP on the year. Manaea should grade out as one of the top values on Awesemo’s projections, and he’ll likely be my highest-owned pitcher on tonight’s slate.
In addition to our MLB Projections, Awesemo’s ownership projections come out every day before lineup lock. We also release a daily Top Stack projection, which takes a look at how likely each MLB stack is to be the highest scoring unit on the slate, relative to our projected ownership and value. Want a more in-depth look? Check out Data Central page, which tallies up every single bit of data we’ve collected over the course of the day, including chance of postponement.
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