MLB Picks: Wednesday, September 11th has 28 teams in action on the main slate for Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.
For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here
I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.
This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.
Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.
[table id=1177 /]
[table id=1178 /]
[table id=1201 /]
Well, it looks like we’re running it back with Reds starters tonight. Gray gets the same tasty matchup that Trevor Bauer had yesterday. We already know the Mariners strike out a ton against righties. The major benefit to Gray instead of Bauer is consistency. Gray doesn’t have the same issues to left handed power. He’s shown better stuff to both lefties and righties, as evidenced by a 28% strikeout rate to both hands. In 2019, Gray has allowed a .284 xwOBA. That’s fantastic. He’s the clear top arm on DraftKings. I still like him quite a bit on FanDuel and Yahoo, but his price relative to the other top arms isn’t as good.
Finding a second starter that I felt comfortable with wasn’t easy. Hamels appears to be the best of a lackluster bunch. The true benefit is his price across all three sites. He’s in play across the board. The Padres are a top-10 strikeout matchup, regardless of handedness, but they’ve actually been solid from a wRC+ and ISO perspective. This season, Hamels has shown more strikeout success against righties. He’s been able to largely avoid damage, although lefties and righties have been able to square up his fastball. When push comes to shove, I think Petco helps him out enough to work his way through this Padres lineup. San Diego has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate, so I’m hanging my hat on that.
If you need to pay down for an SP2, Glenn Sparkman is sitting at the minimum on Yahoo and $4400 on DraftKings. The White Sox are a fantastic strikeout spot, so I think he’s worth the shot at those prices. Going the other direction, Robbie Ray’s price on FanDuel and Yahoo needs to be mentioned. I believe he’s underpriced relative to the arms around him. I prefer him to Gray on both of those sites. Jose Urquidy is once again the minimum salary on Yahoo. He’s been up and down in 2019, but he’s simply priced incorrectly. Feel free to grab him as an easy pay-down arm.