Connect with us

DraftKings

MLB DFS Picks: Sonny Gray & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, September 11 (FREE)

Published

on

Josh Engleman breaks down his favorite MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MLB DFS, including Sonny Gray and more.

MLB Picks: Wednesday, September 11th has 28 teams in action on the main slate for Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your baseball DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription. 

For today’s Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here


I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. In addition to using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

NameFD$FDFD%
Jacob deGrom$1100044.039.3%
Shane Bieber$1070043.332.7%
Clayton Kershaw$1040041.514.0%
Luis Castillo$1030034.212.6%
Charlie Morton$950038.713.6%
Zack Greinke$920037.67.9%
Mike Minor$890033.215.2%
Merrill Kelly$850027.73.5%
Anibal Sanchez$830034.46.5%
J.A. Happ$820029.94.1%
Mike Foltynewicz$770032.75.0%
Drew Smyly$710024.72.9%
Eric Lauer$690026.41.9%
Mike Fiers$680025.81.2%
Jordan Zimmermann$670023.42.1%
Robert Dugger$660021.71.2%
Rick Porcello$650023.22.0%
Chase Anderson$640027.11.6%
Tyler Beede$640022.10.9%
Dylan Cease$630028.93.0%
Felix Hernandez$610019.80.6%
Jacob Waguespack$600018.30.2%
Jaime Barria$580014.80.3%
Steven Brault$570020.10.5%
Aaron Brooks$560019.90.3%
Randy Dobnak$550018.50.1%
Peter Lambert$550017.20.6%
Eric Skoglund$550014.60.3%

DraftKings MLB

NameDK$DKDK%
Shane Bieber$1220023.829.3%
Jacob deGrom$1160025.235.5%
Charlie Morton$1110020.812.2%
Clayton Kershaw$1080022.712.7%
Luis Castillo$1050018.511.3%
Mike Minor$1010018.113.6%
Zack Greinke$980020.47.2%
Mike Foltynewicz$940017.24.7%
J.A. Happ$920015.73.9%
Merrill Kelly$870014.83.3%
Dylan Cease$830015.02.9%
Anibal Sanchez$810018.86.0%
Eric Lauer$760013.81.9%
Chase Anderson$740014.11.6%
Tyler Beede$720010.90.9%
Robert Dugger$700010.71.2%
Drew Smyly$680012.92.8%
Rick Porcello$650012.32.0%
Jacob Waguespack$63008.30.2%
Eric Skoglund$60006.70.3%
Randy Dobnak$58009.10.2%
Mike Fiers$570013.21.2%
Jaime Barria$52006.70.3%
Felix Hernandez$50009.80.6%
Aaron Brooks$48009.80.3%
Jordan Zimmermann$480012.32.1%
Peter Lambert$45008.80.6%
Steven Brault$430010.10.5%

Yahoo MLB

NameY$YY%
Jacob deGrom$5627.0482.2%
Shane Bieber$5125.4498.1%
Clayton Kershaw$5023.9478.0%
Zack Greinke$5022.0439.1%
Charlie Morton$4822.2463.2%
Luis Castillo$4620.4443.7%
Mike Fiers$4114.7359.3%
Mike Foltynewicz$4118.9460.4%
J.A. Happ$3917.3444.0%
Anibal Sanchez$3820.6542.5%
Mike Minor$3820.3535.5%
Merrill Kelly$3716.9456.4%
Eric Lauer$3315.4467.6%
Dylan Cease$3116.8540.7%
Rick Porcello$3114.4465.9%
Tyler Beede$3012.6418.7%
Chase Anderson$3015.5516.6%
Jordan Zimmermann$3014.3476.9%
Steven Brault$2911.9411.1%
Drew Smyly$2914.6502.7%
Felix Hernandez$2711.5425.8%
Jacob Waguespack$269.7374.5%
Peter Lambert$2510.5419.9%
Randy Dobnak$259.9396.8%
Robert Dugger$2512.6502.3%
Eric Skoglund$258.3330.5%
Aaron Brooks$2511.1442.7%
Jaime Barria$258.3332.7%

Sonny Gray

Well, it looks like we’re running it back with Reds starters tonight. Gray gets the same tasty matchup that Trevor Bauer had yesterday. We already know the Mariners strike out a ton against righties. The major benefit to Gray instead of Bauer is consistency. Gray doesn’t have the same issues to left handed power. He’s shown better stuff to both lefties and righties, as evidenced by a 28% strikeout rate to both hands. In 2019, Gray has allowed a .284 xwOBA. That’s fantastic. He’s the clear top arm on DraftKings. I still like him quite a bit on FanDuel and Yahoo, but his price relative to the other top arms isn’t as good.

Cole Hamels

Finding a second starter that I felt comfortable with wasn’t easy. Hamels appears to be the best of a lackluster bunch. The true benefit is his price across all three sites. He’s in play across the board. The Padres are a top-10 strikeout matchup, regardless of handedness, but they’ve actually been solid from a wRC+ and ISO perspective. This season, Hamels has shown more strikeout success against righties. He’s been able to largely avoid damage, although lefties and righties have been able to square up his fastball. When push comes to shove, I think Petco helps him out enough to work his way through this Padres lineup. San Diego has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate, so I’m hanging my hat on that.

Other Options

If you need to pay down for an SP2, Glenn Sparkman is sitting at the minimum on Yahoo and $4400 on DraftKings. The White Sox are a fantastic strikeout spot, so I think he’s worth the shot at those prices. Going the other direction, Robbie Ray’s price on FanDuel and Yahoo needs to be mentioned. I believe he’s underpriced relative to the arms around him. I prefer him to Gray on both of those sites. Jose Urquidy is once again the minimum salary on Yahoo. He’s been up and down in 2019, but he’s simply priced incorrectly. Feel free to grab him as an easy pay-down arm.

Josh is the Director of Content for Awesemo.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections across all sports. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing support@awesemo.com.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Latest Video