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MLB DFS Picks: Zack Greinke & Spotlight Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball Lineups, August 12 (FREE)

Josh Engleman



Josh Engleman gives his favorite MLB DFS picks at pitcher for your fantasy baseball lineups. He's like Zach Greinke as the top dog.

MLB DFS: Monday, August 12th has a doubleheader between the Orioles at Yankees with Game 2 as part of the main slate action and Coors Field is back in our lives on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft. Before you lock in your fantasy baseball lineups and MLB picks, make sure to check out Awesemo’s MLB rankings and projections. Not a member? Sign up HERE and use Promo Code: MLBSTACKS for 50% off any one month subscription.

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For Today’s free Spotlight Hitters and Stacks article click here 

I wanted to put a different spin on Spotlight Pitchers, so I’m giving everyone a peek behind the curtain on how I look at them. Below you’ll find three tables, one each for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo, with the pitcher pool for today’s slate. In the table, you’ll find the pitcher’s name, salary, my projection and my percentage likelihood that they hit a particular target score.

This is the information that helps me make my decisions for which pitchers to roster. Using my projected stat line for a pitcher, I can estimate their chances of scoring 45+ FD points or 30+ DK points. These targets ignore the points acquired for getting the win, as I use the Vegas odds to set those scores for my pitchers.

Since I am a strict MME player in baseball, these are the thresholds I’ve determined I want on a day-to-day basis to try and win a tournament. Because of the difference in roster construction between the sites, I end up with a concentrated pool on FanDuel and a more spread out pool on DraftKings.

FanDuel MLB

Walker Buehler$1020039.213.7%
James Paxton$980034.29.0%
Jose Berrios$960035.711.0%
Dallas Keuchel$900028.43.7%
Tyler Glasnow$880027.53.1%
Anthony Desclafani$840030.44.2%
Mike Fiers$830027.91.6%
Dakota Hudson$790025.40.9%
Marcus Stroman$780030.53.4%
Eric Lauer$770024.11.9%
Austin Voth$760023.70.9%
Vince Velasquez$760030.23.5%
Zach Plesac$740023.11.4%
Jose Urquidy$700026.61.5%
Justus Sheffield$690021.40.6%
Pablo Lopez$680026.03.9%
Alec Mills$680021.90.6%
Johnny Cueto$670022.91.2%
Nathan Eovaldi$650025.01.9%
T.J. Zeuch$630015.90.2%
Asher Wojciechowski$600019.00.9%
Steven Brault$590025.41.1%
Zach Davies$570018.61.0%
Taylor Clarke$560018.40.3%
Antonio Senzatela$560018.80.4%
Patrick Sandoval$550015.70.2%
Joseph Palumbo$550011.60.1%
Eric Skoglund$550015.30.3%

DraftKings MLB

Walker Buehler$1170021.812.4%
James Paxton$1120018.38.4%
Jose Berrios$1080019.19.9%
Marcus Stroman$1030016.23.2%
Anthony Desclafani$990016.54.1%
Dallas Keuchel$960015.43.4%
Johnny Cueto$930012.01.2%
Austin Voth$900012.00.9%
Justus Sheffield$870010.50.6%
Zach Plesac$850011.41.4%
Dakota Hudson$810012.60.9%
Mike Fiers$790014.61.6%
Jose Urquidy$750014.01.4%
Eric Lauer$720012.51.9%
Tyler Glasnow$690014.83.1%
Alec Mills$690011.00.7%
Patrick Sandoval$67007.40.2%
Pablo Lopez$650014.03.7%
Vince Velasquez$620016.03.3%
T.J. Zeuch$59007.50.2%
Eric Skoglund$56007.10.3%
Antonio Senzatela$54008.60.4%
Joseph Palumbo$54005.50.1%
Asher Wojciechowski$52008.80.9%
Zach Davies$47008.81.0%
Taylor Clarke$45009.30.4%
Steven Brault$430012.81.1%
Nathan Eovaldi$410013.11.9%

Yahoo MLB

Walker Buehler$5423.311.4%
James Paxton$4520.09.0%
Mike Fiers$4216.31.7%
Jose Berrios$4221.29.0%
Tyler Glasnow$3915.84.5%
Vince Velasquez$3817.43.8%
Anthony Desclafani$3718.24.3%
Taylor Clarke$3510.40.6%
Dallas Keuchel$3417.63.3%
Pablo Lopez$3416.14.0%
Marcus Stroman$3317.93.2%
Zach Plesac$3313.21.5%
Nathan Eovaldi$3314.52.6%
Eric Lauer$3214.52.1%
Steven Brault$3214.31.3%
Johnny Cueto$3213.61.5%
Dakota Hudson$3214.21.0%
Alec Mills$3112.60.8%
Austin Voth$3113.71.0%
Jose Urquidy$2815.81.7%
Asher Wojciechowski$2610.41.1%
Justus Sheffield$2612.00.8%
Antonio Senzatela$2610.40.5%
Patrick Sandoval$258.60.3%
T.J. Zeuch$259.00.3%
Joseph Palumbo$256.30.2%
Eric Skoglund$258.60.4%
Zach Davies$2510.51.2%

Zack Greinke

Another day, another starting pitcher facing the White Sox ranking high on my list of plays. The White Sox have been downright bad against righties this season. They have the fourth highest strikeout rate and the fourth lowest wRC+. Over the past two seasons, Greinke’s xwOBA against lefties and righties comes in under .300. He’s able to avoid major problems due to his incredible control. If you’re paying up for a pitcher, Zach Greinke is a clear and obvious option.

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James Paxton

Speaking of bad offenses, Paxton gets to face Baltimore. On DraftKings, he’s priced at just $9000, which is the 7th most expensive pitcher salary. I would prefer Paxton to Greinke on DK because of that price discrepancy. On FanDuel, the relative prices are tighter since Paxton is priced is a more realistic manner.

Paxton has a 30%+ strikeout rate over the past two seasons. His only issue is with righty power, which the Orioles don’t really have. When push comes to shove, he’s simply underpriced across the industry and should be a priority in both cash and GPP lineups.

Pay Down Options?

Honestly, the bottom of pitching is pretty gnarly today. Most of the pay down options make me a little sick to my stomach. Brock Stewart gets to face a below average Rangers team outside of Texas. That’s truly the extent of my interest in the bottom. Since everyone looks so similar, I’ll be trying to avoid the chalk in large field GPPs.

Josh is Contributor for where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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