The Bachelor’s Chris Randone Draftkings and Fanduel MLB DFS Roses of the Day
Welcome to Roses of the Day!
My name is Chris Randone and If you ever watched The Bachelor or The Bachelorette, then you know getting a rose means everything. It symbolizes the guy or girl giving them out likes you. Getting a rose means you survive to keep fighting for love. Well in daily fantasy sports it’s no different. We go through a list of players deciding who will survive and make the cut into our lineups. These players fight to help us win. A true definition of love. I’ve learned being on the show that you never give out roses just for fun, there has to be a meaning behind it. We’ll take that same approach here. Tonight’s rose ceremony I’ll be given my Top Stack, Top Pitcher, and Surprise Play of the main slate.
Top Stack/Mini Surprise Stack:
Rays, will you accept this rose?
Tampa Bay doesn’t stand out as the clear top stack on tonight’s slate (Houston 20.1% projected ownership), but they’ll be a team I have more exposure to than what ownership projections show. With Verlander being the clear cut top pitcher on tonight’s main slate, I’ll be looking at stacks I can fit in and Tampa Bay provides the salary relief to roster Verlander. Although their 4.7 implied run total is 7th highest on the slate, Rays bats will face Jose Urena on the road who has struggled for most of his early 2019 campaign. In five starts at home, Urena has given up 37 hits, 20 runs, while striking out only 16.8% of batters faced. Tampa Bay has the 2nd lowest strikeout rate against RHP on the road in MLB (18.6%), while the Rays rank top 10 in .ISO (.199) , wOBA (.351), and wRC+ (121) against RHP on the road. Austin Meadows is one of the best hitters in the league against right hand pitching posting a .536 ISO and .643 wOBA while hitting (.455, 4 HRs, 13 RBIs) in 33 ABs.
Four Keys to rostering a Rays stack:
- Single digit projected ownership (Houston & Texas stacks are clear cut chalk)
- Pricing across the lineup gives salary relief for a Verlander or Corbin (If choosing a top ace on the slate)
- Rays are one of top hitting teams against RHP on the road this season
- Diaz, Meadows, Lowe, & Pham all possess a Hard Hit of greater than 41% (Urena 43.5 Hard%)
Justin Verlander, will you accept this rose?
Justin Verlander takes the mound on the road against a Detroit Tigers team that doesn’t fare well against RHP at home. Verlander is the highest priced pitcher on the slate as he should be. The Houston ace is average 7.5 strikeouts a game, 13.9% SwStr, and a 3.56 xFIP. It’s hard for me to overlook Verlander on this slate given his matchup. Detroit ranks amongst one of the worst hitting teams in baseball at home against RHP. Tigers rank bottom 10 in the league in ISO (.141), wRC+ (80), and wOBA (.292). Detroit doesn’t provide much power against RHP at home (10 HRs in 528 ABs this season) which makes me like Verlander even more. Verlander is not projected to be the highest owned on Fanduel (Corbin projected top% pitcher owned) which could lead to upside if Verlander’s 16% on Fanduel (3rd projected highest) stays that low.
Top Surprise Play:
Mitch Moreland, will you accept this rose?
Moreland has been crushing right-handed pitching this year and is 2nd in the league with 12 HRs against RHP. He owns a .400 ISO, .397 wOBA, and 147 wRC+ overall so far this season. He’s projected to be very low owned due to him facing Colorado ace German Marquez. I like this matchup for home run upside. Marquez gives up 40.2 hard% which pairs nicely with Morelands ridiculous 54.3 hard% and 93.4 EV. The low ownership and price tag on Moreland makes for a nice upside play tonight on the main slate.
4 Keys to rostering Mitch Moreland:
- Low projected ownership
- Huge home run potential
- 12 HRs against RHP this season (2nd in league)
- Right vs. lefty matchup with ballpark favoring Moreland
Miley will take the mound against the Rangers at home tonight and Texas has failed to find success against LHP on the road this season. Tonight they hold a 4.4 implied run total which tells me Vegas doesn’t expect too much out of them. The Rangers are striking out 34% of the time against southpaws on the road. Although Miley holds a 13.9% K-rate, he hasn’t been bad at home this season. His cutter has held good velocity and has translated into a ton of ground ball outs. Texas ranks bottom five in ISO (.107) and wOBA (.251) against LHP on the road.
That’s it for today, make sure to check back in for future editions of Rose of the Day.