Saturday, July 31 brings a solid five-game afternoon set, along with a nine-game main slate. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks for pitchers and stacks for Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks, Saturday, July 31
Yahoo Stack of the Day: St. Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Bailey Ober — 4.9 implied runs
While rookie Bailey Ober has shown glimpses of strikeout upside, he has a long way to go before he capitalizes on his talent with any consistency. After trading away most everything that was not nailed down, it is hard to see the Twins looking to push the rookie too hard. It seems he has a soft cap of 70 to 75 pitches and likely will make only six more starts. Walks, and untimely home runs, have plagued his last three outings spanning just 13.2 innings with four home runs allowed with a 5.92 ERA while averaging only 71 pitches.
The Cardinals were active at the deadline picking up a couple of lefties, sadly it was washed up pitchers in Jon Lester and J.A. Happ instead of adding a lefty bat. St. Louis is getting a Yahoo salary algorithm discount on most of its key batsmen, which is pushing the playaers up the point-per-dollar ranks. Tyler O’Neill is a steal for just $12 batting cleanup, and when pairing him with Yadier Molina ($7) to knock out the catcher requirement, we gain all sorts of flexibility. Turning to the top of the order the trio to target will be Paul Goldschmidt ($19), Nolan Arenado ($17) and switch-hitter Dylan Carlson ($15), who should be leading off.
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Oakland Athletics at RHP Jaime Barria — 5.4 implied runs
This season in 13.1 innings, Jaime Barria has managed to collect only five strikeouts. Even by his standards this is low and it is not going to help him against a power-laden Athletics squad. The addition of Starling Marte was an excellent one, as it extends the lineup with contact heavy power bats that do a good job of avoiding strikeouts. Marte, Matt Olson and Mark Canha should be the priority MLB DFS picks in all formats this afternoon. Mitch Moreland, of course, is a valuable play in tournaments, as it will move us off of the popular Olson with an accompanying discount. Ramon Laureano, Jed Lowrie and Matt Chapman are also viable options to fill out a full stack.
Late Slate
Los Angeles Dodgers at RHP Merrill Kelly — 5.2 implied runs
Corey Seager made his return last night after missing 10 weeks with a fractured hand with a pair of base hits. Trea Turner is still in the Covid-19 protocol so his Dodgers debut is on hold, and Mookie Betts is still out with a hip injury, but that just provides opportunities for the soon to be bench players.
Merrill Kelly has been incredibly lucky over his last four starts allowing just two home runs and three free passes in 24.2 innings. This has culminated in a 3.28 ERA, however, we have to remember that Kelly does not have strikeout stuff. In this stretch he has a paltry 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings and it is only a matter of time before opposing batters start hitting in droves.
On the two-game late-night contests, the Dodgers, of course, will be wildly popular. Fortunately, Yahoo and DraftKings did a good job with the salaries for the key targets. Matt Beaty and Billy McKinney will be the discount dandies, though they will be at the bottom of the order. Yahoo made a misstep with Cody Bellinger at just $8, but we can join the masses there and differentiate elsewhere. The priority MLB DFS picks, of course, should be Seager, Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Will Smith and that quartet is viable in all Saturday slates and formats.
Spotlight Pitchers
Top Target: RHP Yu Darvish vs. Colorado Rockies — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $45 | FanDuel $9,900 | DraftKings $10,500
There is no question that Yu Darvish has struggled in July. Through his four starts he has allowed six home runs with a 7.32 ERA in 19.2 innings. Now some of this has just been bad luck sequencing with balls leaving the park with runners on base and we can take solace in the 19 strikeouts with just four walks to back that up. Colorado is the worst team in the league on the road and against right-handed pitching, so despite its victory last night, it doesn’t project as much of a threat with less than three implied runs for Saturday’s tilt in Petco Park.
Secondary Target: Brandon Woodruff at Atlanta Braves — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $51 | FanDuel $10,800 | DraftKings $9,800
Yes, Atlanta got to Corbin Burnes yesterday in the early going, but that should not dissuade us from rolling with teammate Brandon Woodruff tonight. On the season the 28-year-old righty has a 2.14 ERA, which is the second best in the league along with an 0.84 WHIP, which tops all qualified starters. These gaudy figures are accompanied by 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, which is a top-20 rate. Adam Duvall rejoined his former team as they look to bolster their offense, however, he brings along a boatload of strikeouts. While this is not going to be a walk in the park for Woodruff, there is definitely fantasy upside in this matchup via strikeouts.
Wild Card: RHP Aaron Nola at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $45 | FanDuel $11,000 | DraftKings $9,700
Aside from Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Gregory Polanco, the Pirates are putting out a Triple-A lineup. Aaron Nola has turned things around in his three July starts, and while the four home runs are a little concerning, he still has major strikeout upside and he should come close to 100 pitches tonight. While Nola is not a discounted option by any stretch, his pitch-per-dollar ratio gives him attainable fantasy upside.
Final Thoughts for the Saturday, July 31 MLB DFS Slate
The dust is still settling from the flurry of trades that occurred in one of the most active deadline periods in recent memory. This will provide plenty of discounted bats and also intriguing tournament pitching options against suddenly decimated lineups.
